32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 28

World Cup Preview: England

England suffers from the same condition as Argentina and Belgium — a tremendous wealth of individual talent that has failed to aggregate to its potential super team status. That may seem a stretch, but only because we’re so used to England being the joke of international football. There was the infamous elimination to Iceland at Euro 2016, failure to get out of the Group Stage in Brazil 2014 and a handful of red card riddled disasters throughout the 90s and early 2000s. A new look side seeks to finally restore some respect for their national team.

The Road So Far:

Gareth Southgate, promoted up from his role as U21 coach, brings with him some of the young talent that he groomed in his previous job, as well as others that rose through the ranks since his departure. In net there’s Everton’s Jordan Pickford and Stoke City’s Jack Butland. From the defenders, there’s Manchester City’s John Stones and Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold. The middle features Tottenham’s Dele Alli, Manchester United’s Jesse Lingard, and Chelsea’s Ruben Loftus-Cheek, while the frontline is headlined by Dele Alli and Lingard’s teammates, Harry Kane of the former and Marcus Rashford of the latter’s.

Other fresh faces include goalkeeper Nick Poper and defenders Kieran Trippier and Harry Maguire. Other first-time World Cup participants in the squad are Kyle Walker, Danny Rose, Eric Dier, Ashley Young, Fabian Delph and Jamie Vardy. Only five players remain from the 2014 list: Gary Cahill, Phil Jones, Jordan Henderson, Raheem Sterling and Danny Welbeck; none played in 2010.

It may seem surprising considering their reputation and quick turnover rate, but England has had excellent qualifying campaigns for each of the last three World Cups. Their last defeat in European Qualifiers was way back in 2009 — a 1–0 loss in Ukraine. This year they finished well ahead of Slovakia in Group F, with eight wins and two draws good for 26 points; Slovakia and Scotland below them each had 18.

The Road Ahead:

At some point, the underperforming will stop. I’m not about to crown England champions by any means, but they should be able to progress from the Group they’ve been placed in without too many issues… should.

The biggest concern for England will be scoring goals. Their 18 was tied for the second lowest from group winners in European qualifying; only Iceland’s 16 was worse. For comparison, Spain had double that with 38, while Belgium and Germany each had 43. Fitting for England’s “Underachievers” label, you’d think they would do better with three of this year’s top five goal scorers in the Premier League (Kane, Vardy, and Sterling).

Kane should pull his own weight, but may be expected to carry his teammates as well. His 5 in qualifying led the team. No one else on the 23-man squad had multiple goals. Sterling took a huge leap forward this year and should be guaranteed a place behind him. If given any starts, the young Rashford will be expected to step up and look more like his club self; an excellent performance against Costa Rica in their last friendly is encouraging. Vardy had a great season after a dip in his Leicester City numbers last year, and he will also look to have better performances than his output in qualifying when he’s called upon.

One of Southgate’s key decisions will be who his central midfielder is. Henderson is coming off arguably his best season with Liverpool, and could be chosen to dictate play from the middle. Dier has started more games under the new coach, and is just as likely to get the nod. Look for Dele Alli and Lingard ahead of the selected pivot, with Tottenham pair Rose and Trippier deployed as wingbacks at his sides.

For the defense, Southgate has introduced a back three, and it appears that it’s here to stay. Stones stands in the center, with Walker and Maguire likely on the flanks. Rose and/or Trippier may be moved back in case a change is made to the midfield.

Suthgate’s second key decision will be on a starting goalkeeper. Pickford and Butland have both looked solid but neither has been announced as the #1 choice. While Pickford may have #1 on his jersey, Butland had a great outing against Costa Rica and could get the nod instead. Pickford offers some quicker movement, while Butland is bigger and imposes a greater presence.

The call between Henderson or Dier and Pickford or Butland shouldn’t make too much of a difference in their first two matches, first against Tunisia and then Panama. It’s the final game against Belgium, which will likely decide who takes the top spot, where England will need to field their best 11 and the small difference will matter. Paired with Group H, it’s hard to say who their Round of 16 opponents will be, regardless of a first or second place finish, but odds are in favour of either Poland or Colombia. Perhaps more importantly is which side of the elimination bracket they fall on for later matches; first place will likely put them with Brazil, France and Portugal. Second place would theoretically yield Germany, Spain and Argentina.

Best Case Scenario:

The players on the field render performances akin to those with their clubs. Stones is solid at the back, Henderson controls the pace, and Sterling and Kane are a prolific duo. English pessimism slowly subsides after thumping both Tunisia and Panama. Murmurs return after a draw against Belgium, but at least they aren’t wiped out. Ahead on goal difference, they progress in first place where they beat Poland. Just as the nation begins to get excited, Brazil takes advantage of defensive holes and shuts down Kane, methodically picking them apart.

Worst Case Scenario:

The players on the field may as well be wearing their club jerseys, because they’re an incoherent mess. Trying to simultaneously play their club roles and do as Southgate directs, the side looks more confused than anything. Miscommunication leads to an early setback against Tunisia, and with little experience they fail to turn it around. Things look better in a win over Panama, but a loss to Belgium sees them crash out.

Final Prediction:

Despite looking new and sleek, it feels like déjà vu to say that England is young and promising. I’m going to give them the credit they deserve based on sheer talent and say they move forward in second place, but I foresee trouble in the Round of 16. It’s not quite the catastrophe of 2014, but it’s also not a great result.