32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 29
World Cup Preview: Poland
Poland returns to the World Cup for the first time since 2006, on the back of a record-breaking 16-goal tally from superstar Robert Lewandowski during European Qualifiers. Ranked 6th at the time of the World Cup draw, Poland was probably hoping to get a relatively easy group drawn. In the end, strong opponents from each of the other three pots resulted in the most evenly matched group at the tournament. The group is still winnable, but like in qualifying, they’ll need contributions from lesser-known individuals to secure a spot in the Round of 16.
The Road So Far:
There were only two missteps in Poland’s qualification campaign: a 2–2 draw in Kazakhstan on Day 1, and a 4–0 meltdown in Copenhagen against Denmark. The rest of the time, Adam Nawalka had his team on cruise control. Lewandowski scored in all matches but one (the sole defeat to the Danes), including hat tricks against Denmark (home fixture), Romania, and Armenia. Eight others put their names on the score sheet, including three goals from Hull City winger Kamil Grosicki.
With some tough games schedules after the end of the Qualifiers, Poland has had some more mixed results. There were draws against Uruguay and Chile, defeats to Mexico and Nigeria, plus a win against South Korea. As long as Lewandowski maintains his incredible form, Poland knows that the goals will come; the problem is on the other side of the pitch. The 4 goals let in against Denmark opened up questions about their solidity. When taking a step back, it’s clear that it’s not just a blip on the radar. The 14 goals allowed in qualifying was more than any group winner in Europe, and in fact even more than all of the three teams below them in their own group. With attacking threats present in each of their Group H opponents, things will have to be cleaned up at the back to ensure they concede less than they themselves score.
The Road Ahead:
The Poles have a final friendly this week against Lithuania, mere days from the start of the tournament but a week from their own opening match, thanks to their spot in the final group. Lithuania, a nation that has never independently qualified for the World Cup (they were part of the Soviet Union for the tournaments that took place between 1950 and 1990), should give them an opportunity to warm up with a positive result.
Poland begins the World Cup with a match against Senegal. Colombia is next with Japan scheduled for the last day of the Group Stage. Although Poland is paired with Colombia as group favourites, there’s plenty of talent on both Senegal and Japan that could cause serious trouble.
The good news is that the Poles can rest easy knowing they have two solid options to choose from in net: Swansea’s Lukasz Fabianski and Juventus’ Wojciech Szczesny. The bad news is that if the guys ahead of them don’t pull it together, neither option will save them from a barrage of shots from the likes of Sadio Mané, James Rodríguez, and Shinji Kagawa.
At one point, Borussia Dortmund’s Lukasz Piszczek was easily Poland’s best defender, equally capable of stopping attacks and contributing going forward. At 33, he’s not quite the same player anymore. In one of the dumber pre-World Cup injuries, Monaco’s Kamil Glik who is perceived as the strongest of the current back four hurt his shoulder attempting a bicycle kick in training. From the regulars, Lokomotiv Moskow’s 28-year-old Maciej Rybus is the only player under 30. Assuming Glik remains out, the introduction of Southampton’s 22-year-old Jan Bednarek may actually be beneficial to an otherwise aging backline.
The midfield is much more effective. Paris Saint Germain’s Grzegorz Krychowiak (on loan at West Brom) holds the midfield next to Sampdoria’s Karol Linetty. Wolfburg’s Jakub Blaszczykowski and Grosicki sit on the wings providing service down the lines, while Napoli’s Piotr Zielinski has struck a great partnership with Lewandowski up front.
In attack Lewandowski garners all the attention. Zielinski’s teammate Arkadiusz Milik may be less recognizable, but he’s shown an exceptional level of talent in the past, and if not for several injury concerns, would be a lock next to Lewandowski. It remains to be seen if he is placed up front, taking the place of one of the midfielders.
If Poland manages to top the group, England seems like the probable Round of 16 opponent. Although their youth and speed could be a match up problem, it’s preferable to a second place finish; in all likelihood that would result in a game against a much more clinical Belgian side.
Best Case Scenario:
Lewandowski does his thing, scoring in every game and giving his team a chance. Fierce competition for the starting spot in net brings the best out of the selected goalkeeper, and timely saves results in three well-deserved victories. After a high-scoring 90 minutes against England, Lewandowski provides a heroic moment in extra time to send his country to the Quarter Finals for the first time since their second round appearances in 1974, 1978 and 1982. Germany is the first to really expose Poland’s defensive issues, stopping them just short of equaling their all-time best Semi Final appearances.
Worst Case Scenario:
Lewandowski goes cold at the worst time possible, and the defense continues to struggle. An appalling first performance ends in defeat, and against a very talented Colombia side Poland looks very distant from the 6th-ranked label they were given for the draw. A draw against Japan brings a dismal campaign to a close.
Final Prediction:
There is no sign of Lewandowski slowing down, and I have enough faith in the supporting cast (at least in the midfield), to trust that Poland will make it to the Round of 16. The defensive issues will cost them first place — possibly on goal difference — and put them in trouble against a Belgium team that will take complete advantage of the situation.
