32 Days / 32 Teams — Day 31
World Cup Preview: Colombia
After heartbreakingly missing out in Brazil, striker Radamel Falcao returns to lead his squad into what will likely be both his first and last World Cup. Four years ago, James Rodríguez became a star in his absence. Now alongside him and with considerable talent up and down the starting line up, the pair hopes to elevate their nation and carry them to another decent run.
The Road So Far:
Asides from Brazil, qualifying was really pretty difficult for everyone in South America, with most teams booking a place on the final day. Los Cafeteros began Match Day 18 on 26 points, in fourth place and nearly deadlocked with Chile ahead of them, while sitting 2 points back of second-place Uruguay. Peru, Argentina and Paraguay all threatened to take their spot, depending on results. Despite a 1–1 draw to Peru, a mix of outcomes allowed the Colombians to hold on to that fourth and final direct qualification spot.
After Qualifiers, Jose Pékerman’s team enjoyed a 4–0 trouncing of China, and a very encouraging 3–2 win over France. Scoreless draws against Australia and Egypt were a little less impressive, perhaps more indicative of their strengths and weaknesses. For whatever reason, goals have been a little difficult to come by (21 in 18 Qualifier matches), but they’ve also been quite good at keeping the ball out of their own net; their 19 goals against was the third lowest in South America.
The Road Ahead:
Colombia should be considered to have the most cumulative talent in Group H, and therefore considered favourite to finish up top. Still, many things could go wrong, and being in the most open of the World Cup groups means their frontrunner position is far from secure.
A major concern will be how in-form the starting eleven are, with many of them finding it difficult to get playing time at their respective clubs. This is most evident for their starting goalkeeper David Ospina, with playing time a struggle at Arsenal when Petr Cech is the undisputed number one. The good news is that Ospina has had significantly better performances for his country than he has with the Gunners, the 2014 tournament being a prime example.
Also worth noting is the previously alluded defense that Ospina has standing in front of him. Veteran Cristián Zapata has started being slowly phased out at AC Milan; he’ll be on the squad but will likely cede his place to a couple of youngsters. The first of the pair is FC Barcelona’s Yerry Mina, yet another player who hasn’t exactly cracked the starting line up for his club. The 23-year-old was originally envisioned as Gerard Pique’s successor, but in the few opportunities he’s been given he’s had trouble adapting. Rumours suggest that the Catalonian side has already lost hope and will be looking to ship him out this summer. A good performance from him may change their minds, as he’s a very talented kid with many years ahead of him to develop. His partner, Dávinson Sánchez, has had a much smoother transition to the big club stage, getting the nod on 31 occasions for Tottenham this year.
The middle sees a similar situation. Juan Cuadrado has played a decent amount of games for Juventus this year, but also missed several months due to injury. James, shuffled in and out of the Real Madrid line up throughout his sting with the Spanish giants, has found a more stable role at Bayern Munich.
The beloved Falcao, at one point one of the best forwards in the world with Atlético Madrid, may have slowed down considerably at 32, but he’s far from finished. Following dismal spells at Manchester United and Chelsea, the iconic striker has been very productive with Monaco, netting 54 goals over the last two seasons. Having few options behind him, Colombia needs him to be at his best. Of all the squad, the most in-form man may be Carlos Bacca, who on loan at Villareal featured in 44 matches and scored 18 goals. Pékerman likes to use a 4–2–3–1 formation, with Bacca hanging back, but with goal scoring being an issue he may want to push Bacca further up and next to Falcao.
Colombia gets things started against Japan. They’ll want to hit the ground running, with arguably more difficult games against Poland first and then Senegal to bring the Group Stage to a close. If Colombia claims the top spot they may go on to face England, which would be winnable for them. Sitting in second place would set up the more difficult task of having to get past Belgium.
Best Case Scenario:
Bacca, James and Falcao are a formidable attacking trio, taking advantage of subpar defending against Japan and Poland for six points in two matches. Senegal is a bit better defensively, but Colombia still edges them out for a perfect record at the end of the Group Stage. Against England, Mina and Sánchez keep a close to mark to their forward assignments. A moment of magic ahead gives them another narrow win. Germany in the Quarter Final proves too much to ask for. They match their best ever result from four years ago, but go no further.
Worst Case Scenario:
Despite still being quite young, Colombia doesn’t have quite the same spark as it did in Brazil, and capitalizing on chances continues to be a problem. After a disappointing tie against Japan, losing to Poland puts them in a difficult spot. A thrilling final game sees Colombia’s attack finally come to life, but it’s too late. Senegal is just as hungry to progress, and another draw sees the South American side crash out.
Final Prediction:
I quite like the look of this team and I think that if not the most talented, they’re at least easily the most balanced squad in Group H. I have confidence that the defense will hold up and that the scoring will occur when it needs to. This team can top their group and even make the Quarter Finals again. Once there, I’m a little less sure about them, primarily due to Falcao being their primary forward and their inexperience at the defensive core. Against a powerhouse like Germany, this team is likely to be eliminated.
