Are you ready for the changes coming to the automotive industry?
The progressive entry into the luxury electric car sector, monopolized for some time now by Tesla, by companies such as Jaguar or Porsche reveals the makings of an interesting phenomenon: the new approaches designers can make once the restrictions are removed related to the complexity, weight or safety requirements of gasoline engines give way to new specifications as simpler, smaller engines allow more space for other uses.
One of the first things you notice about a Tesla is the size of its two trunks, its impressive performance and silence while driving, factors that raise the bar for other high-end manufacturers: there is no point in Jaguar or Porsche launching electric vehicles with significantly lower performance in terms of acceleration or autonomy, which Tesla has succeeded in stretching to levels nobody imagined. Both the Jaguar I-Pace and the Porsche Mission E, with their 4.8 and 3.5 seconds zero to 100 kph and 480 km and 500 km of autonomy respectively, are worthy rivals in their categories of the Tesla Model X (3.1 seconds and 565 km) or Model S (2.7 seconds and 594 km) — but not the Tesla Roadster, still to be produced, with its expected 2.1 seconds and 1,000 km of autonomy — showing that the traditional big beasts of the luxury sector are taking the electric vehicle seriously.
That said, in both cases we are talking about vehicles whose design is limited by many of the design restrictions of cars with internal combustion engines: They either use the same chassis, or are intended to continue looking like their traditional forebears. Making an electric vehicle is not, as we are now beginning to see, simply about taking an old chassis and plugging it in: much more is involved if the Jaguars and Porsches of this world want to be reasonably competitive.
At the same time, Tesla, although it has followed traditional designs, does incorporate some differential features: its vehicles can be updated by software sent overnight, sometimes causing confusion among owners. A recent software update improved the performance of the Model 3’s brakes to the point of reducing its braking distance by six meters, prompting Consumer Reports to change its position and recommend a vehicle it had previously accused of falling short in that area. A change of this type is something that users can feel in the behavior of the car: you wake up in the morning and some of the driving characteristics of your car, the one that you have been driving for a while and thought you knew, have changed.
What happens when we incorporate such issues into the design of cars? Smaller, more efficient engines mean they can be placed much closer to the wheels, thus avoiding the need to reserve space for huge transmission tunnels, while creating spaces for batteries that can even be used to balance the vehicle. Similarly, more space is available for occupants. Even the cooling and AC need to be channeled differently, and instead of cooling down the radiator or the engine, now applied to the batteries, which in turn can have design implications. In the Jaguar I-Pace, for example, the front grille is purely an aesthetic question related to brand recognition.
Similarly, the idea of a connected vehicle, one with software updates, changes the relationship between customer and manufacturer. Moving toward the vehicle as a service instead of a product, meaning cars are sold to fleet managers, not individuals, is the last step in this continuum, and will require other types of changes and plans.
There will be changes to other links in the value chain: electric motors are simpler and require less maintenance, meaning fewer workshops and dealer networks. Within reason, vehicles can be accessed anywhere: shopping malls, downtown, or, as in Monterrey, in the hotel where I am currently staying, where Tesla has a sales office and space in its garage used as a showroom. The brand wants to maintain a direct relationship with its users, meaning it keep dealers out of the equation, prefering to send you a mechanic, a mobile workshop, or simply picking up your vehicle and taking it to its own locations. Bodywork simply requires workshops familiar with aluminum. Perhaps the main issue for Tesla will be establishing charger networks.
In the coming years, as the industry frees itself from the long-standing restrictions of the internal combustion engine, we will see many changes to design. Manufacturers that realize the electric vehicle is not just another model to complete its range, but a whole new project, will have the advantage of developing expertise and fresher approaches at the same time as the internal combustion engine enters its declining years, brought about either by changes to the law or its inability to compete, a change that some analysts say will take place within the next 8 to 10 years.
Most people I speak to in the automotive industry are still either ignorant of or in denial about these fast-paced changes. At best, they might accept sticking two engines in a car: an internal combustion one and an electric one, the latter to be used sparingly… as though this were somehow more efficient, competitive and environmentally friendly.
When so many aspects of an industry, long considered fundamental, threaten to change at the same time, for many the only response that is to deny the evidence and apply magical thinking, hoping that this will somehow restore things to their former place. The harsh truth is that only those brands able to understand the new forces at play, to interpret incorporate them, will remain competitive.
(En español, aquí)
