Four trends that are reinventing the wheel
One of the most interesting aspects of the reinvention of the automobile industry is the way the impact of technology is happening in different areas and coming from different sources. The main drivers of change are four: ridesharing, electric vehicles, the connected car, and self-driving vehicles.
Real time ridesharing, usually associated with companies like Uber, Lyft, and BlaBlaCar, will have a huge impact on the industry. As these kinds of transport options become more available, costs fall, quality improves, and we will increasingly begin to think about more radical options such as not bothering to own a car at all. The idea is to make better use of a resource that spends most of its time parked in a garage or on the street.
There is growing evidence that taking into account the costs associated with running a car, including the initial cost, along with fuel, insurance, tolls, parking, etc, it is much cheaper and more practical to rent or share a vehicle as and when it is needed. If we add benefits such as lower accident rates and fines, often related to drunk driving, the trend seems to be taking hold, although the big shift will take place when the upcoming generation comes of age.
The steady transition toward electric vehicles is largely being led by Tesla. Elon Musk’s company has managed to change the public’s perception of electric vehicles has lacking in options and driving distance to a luxury alternative that few can yet afford, and that offers a very different, superior experience than driving a car fuelled by gasoline or diesel: cleaner, more comfortable, more efficient, and able to outperform its supercar rivals. A relative infant in a century-old industry, Tesla plans to lower the cost of its electric cars over time using the profits from the most expensive models to finance less expensive ones, until such point that they will be the logical option. Right now, when you use a Tesla regularly, you’re not worried about it running out of power, not even during long commuter journeys.
The connected car is the logical outcome of IoT, the internet of things, offering the possibility of locating sensors, processor, and transmitters able to manage information of all kinds. Aside from providing the driver with data, or keeping a record that insurance companies can use, the internet will allow cars to be in touch with each other. Technology is developing ever-more rapidly to make cars safer, more versatile, more comfortable, and with more driving aids, and that many pundits see as a bridge toward the self-driving car.
But the motor industry has a very different view on change to that of the technology sector: locked into long-term production cycles, it is more interested in aids to driving; advances in self-driving are being developed by companies like Google, which wants to remove humans from the driving equation. From this perspective, the problems facing self-driving cars come solely from the people who insist on driving their own cars on the roads.
But there is little point in a self-driving car being able to see a cyclist or pedestrian if the human-driven vehicle behind then crashes into them. The answer is to try to teach self-driving vehicles to be able to recognize and even to anticipate the unpredictable things that humans do behind the wheel and that put themselves and other road users in danger. Right now we’re not talking about humans no longer being allowed to drive — although we may well reach a point where on the very wealthy will be able to afford to, largely thanks to increased insurance premiums — but about creating an environment in which both forms of driving can function.
The spread of self-driving cars raises any number of questions: Google’s vehicles have no windshield wipers, because in reality, the human inside it doesn’t need to see what’s going on. The only areas that need to be kept free of water are the car’s sensors. There are other issues that border on science fiction, such as whether the police should be able to take over a self-driving car if it is being used to commit a crime.
The technology is already with us, and is going to affect a century-old industry: and not just carmakers, but also insurance companies, car owners, businesses, and the way we design our cities. All this rooted in four technological trends that are converging on the same industry, and that are going to change it forever.
(En español, aquí)
