Looking forward to an electric future
Volvo’s decision to focus on hybrid and electric cars, a move soon to be copied by other automobile manufacturers, spells the end of the internal combustion engine. But we still have some way to go: some Volvo models offering barley 30 or 40 kilometers of electric-powered driving under real conditions, although as a result they are rewarded by being able to use high occupancy lanes or park for free, at least in Spanish cities. That said, the announcement is positive and marks the beginning of a journey towards an exclusively electric future.
The Volkswagen scandals, textbook examples in terms of ethics of what corporate social responsibility isn’t, mark the end of an era. Meanwhile, the diesel engine has to go, a historical and irresponsible error, and it is surely only a matter of time before emitting smoke through an exhaust pipe is seen as morally reprehensible or is simply made illegal.
At the same as Volvo announced an electric future, Tesla launches its Model 3, the second part of its strategic plan to make its vehicles more accessible, while Finland has announced the end of the use of fossil fuels for home heating by 2020. Even sports car icons like Porsche are moving to hybrid engines, not so much to save fuel but because electric motors now provide better performance.
The world is now moving toward an oil-free future, and academics like Tony Seba are positioning themselves as visionaries when they announce the death of the oil industry as soon as electric vehicles, which with barely 20 moving parts versus the about 2ooo of its internal combustion counterparts, become cheaper. And what’s more, car ownership will die as well. His report, “Rethinking transportation 2020–2030” (pdf, 14.7MB) is worth reading in some detail.
The future is not yet with us, and the price of electric vehicles will have to drop as the benefits of mass production make themselves felt, at the same time as unsustainable and expensive approaches such as leasing will have to go, but these are adjustments that can be made along the way. Soon, the logic of the electric vehicle will be unavoidable.
I recently had the opportunity to drive an electric vehicle for a couple of weeks, an experience I will write about soon. My experience coincided with some journeys before and after that period, which meant that, in practice, it was more than a month before I had to go to a gas station to refuel. The feeling of having to go back to one yesterday was like travelling back in time, one of those moments when you realize how entrenched or established habits lose meaning as technology evolves.
The oil industry will not disappear overnight, and we will see a long transition, but the goal is there. And capitalizing on that future event makes more and more sense from a business perspective.
(En español, aquí)
