Self-driving cars: thinking into the future
If by now you still don’t see a future for self-driving vehicles, then you simply haven’t read enough about the subject. As technology stands, it is perfectly clear that one of these vehicles can carry out the tasks of driving much more efficiently than a human: they have an enhanced ability to gather information about what is going on around them, they have faster reflexes, they don’t get road rage, and they don’t drink or take drugs.
The results of ongoing road trials leave no doubts. Leaving aside the question of new competitors or innovation platforms — Apple is hiring managers with experience in the automobile sector and is planning its strategy to bring disruption to the market — car makers long ago stopped talking about “driving aids” and are instead now focusing on self-driving vehicles, and that includes transporting goods in trucks. Some investments, such as the recent acquisition of Here and its portfolio of technologies for smart vehicles, illustrate this. All that stands in the way now are legal and ethical issues. The technology is ready. Taking into account the construction of new infrastructure, improved efficiency, and better safety, this is already a $1 trillion market.
The question now is to figure out where all this is leading. At present, the law requires a human to be at the wheel to take control in the effect of an emergency. This is clearly a transition: there is little doubt that we are moving toward a situation wherein passengers are that: passengers, with no involvement in the driving process.
In fact everything suggests that the majority of self-driving vehicles will not even be owned, but instead rented out. This to a large extent erases the question of the price tag of these vehicles, and allows for greater focus on increasing their efficiency to make them economically viable. From the moment these vehicles are widely available, and become a realistic way to optimize urban transport, things will change very quickly, as will the way we thing about driving and what vehicles are for.
Luxury will now mean something very different: the important thing now will not be the size of the engine or the styling, but that a vehicle is roomy, allowing us to sleep while we travel, and be connected to the internet, either to entertain ourselves or to hold meetings. What happens when what passengers get up to is no longer conditioned by the driving process and we are completely free during our journeys? We may well see an increase in drive-thru businesses; we will certainly be able to use the time we spend in a car more efficiently, even eating in them in comfort. We will also be able to use journey time to get on with some work. These and other new realities and possibilities will change the design of vehicle interiors.
And these changes will not just affect vehicles themselves, but the way we build our cities, as well as how we live and work in them, and all decided by whether we move toward self-driving vehicles or not. The technology is there, the only question now is how long it takes us to adapt.
(En español, aquí)
