The internal combustion engine is dead, and about time too

This is what the death of one technology and its replacement by a superior one looks like: electric vehicles, which accounted for less than 5% of total sales in 2020, rose to 9% in 2021 and then 14% in 2022, more than 10 million vehicles, 2023 indicating a 20% share. That’s an annual overall growth of more than 35% that could take sales to 14 million or more.

At this rate, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), practically all new vehicle sales in 2030 will be electric, with the remaining petrol and diesel cars ageing wrecks, subject to rapid wear and tear — the era in which traditional cars lasted more than ten years ended a long time ago — and with parts for their complicated and fragile mechanics nearly impossible to find, at the same time as they are being withdrawn after they fail their annual road worthiness tests for exceeding ever-stricter emissions.

This irreversible process will remove 40% of the total demand for fossil fuels, a prospect that leads to absolute panic in oil-producing countries and oil companies. The evidence is clear and we have known it for a long time: in quantitative terms, the biggest demand for oil comes not from large merchant ships, aviation, nor industry, nor any of the things that car manufacturers claim to slow down their transition, but the cars on our…