Virtual reality: an adoption curve starts to take shape

Enrique Dans
Enrique Dans
Published in
4 min readNov 16, 2015

The current virtual reality scene started to come into focus with the Oculus VR fundraising campaign launched on Kickstarter in August 2012. Palmer Luckey, the company’s founder, released a video asking for $250,000, and in less than a month had convinced almost 9,000 people to put up close to $2.5 million. The project won over John Carmack, a mythical figure in the videogame field (creator of games such as Wolfenstein 3D, Doom or Quake), who also appeared in the video, and thanks to extensive media coverage, Facebook decided to buy Oculus in March 2014 for $2 billion in cash and shares.

Since then, Google has launched Google Cardboard, a minimalist visor that uses a smartphone to provide a not entirely similar experience, but not a bad one, and drastically lowering entry barriers to the virtual reality world. Samsung released its first visor within the Samsung Gear family, and then team up with Oculus for the second. HTC has a joint venture with Valve, resulting in the HTC Vive, while Sony has joined in with its PS4. Meanwhile, Facebook seems to be offering Oculus VR the chance to continue growing independently with more resources, at the same time as selling virtual reality as the next step in the Facebook experience.

What barriers does virtual reality need to overcome to make the leap to widespread uptake by the public? In the first place, it needs to become something that is relatively easy to use. Google did this with its cardboard visor; at the same time, airlines, for example, are keen to offer passengers a more immersive televisual experience while flying. We cannot be far from seeing the first photograph of rows of goggled flyers. The industry will be looking to try out new markets wherever it can and with whomever.

Then there is the social aspect. Virtual reality goggles isolate us as well as making us look strange. It’s not a sharing experience. A generation used to multiple screens will need to have some kind of warning that emails or other messages have come in while they are engaged in virtual reality.

Given the right development and circumstances, we could use these glasses for reading or on the social networks while lying on the sofa or in bed. Microsoft, with HoloLens, has a different idea: using glasses to superimpose a layer of virtual reality on reality, and that could have plenty of applications, as was shown with the launch of Google Glass — the company is currently in the midst of a rethink: “thanks for exploring with us, the journey doesn’t end here,” says the company’s website. These kinds of models also offer potential for interacting with other people: trying to imagine a conversation with somebody else in virtual reality mode seems appealing initially, but part of that appeal soon disappears when we imagine ourselves interacting with that person without being able to see their eyes because half their face is obscured by a visor.

Finally, the biggest barrier: content. At the moment, most people that have tried virtual reality have experienced specially designed content, in what we might call test mode. But there are obviously other contexts it would work in. Gaming would seem to offer the most potential.

That said, the polls show that only around half of hardcore gamers are interested in the technology, with just 22 percent prepared to buy a visor in the near future. Others say that the $400 price tag is excessive, or that they have had poor experiences with visors, with some people reporting nausea and dizziness.

But life isn’t just about gaming: the porn industry, which has traditionally helped drive technological change online, has already launched products to take advantage of virtual reality, and that have prompted a wide range of reactions from consumers. This For Your Eyes Only type of highly private experience could be expanded to include so-called teledildonics, accessories that provide remote masturbatory or other sexual experiences, or even sex with robots: a subject that I have found can be useful for capturing the attention of my students and encouraging them to participate in group discussions…

I have few doubts of the role the sex industry will play in stimulating (sorry:-) the world of virtual reality. That said, in the same way that playing isn’t everything, neither is sex, and we must be careful not to necessarily associate it automatically with virtual reality, in the same way that Snapchat isn’t just about sexting.

Having tried virtual reality myself on a number of occasions, and taking into account the above, it is only a matter of time before we start to see the clear outline of what we might call the adoption curve: all the ingredients are in place. What started as an application with very limited uses will spread. It’s just a question of time, and of course, as we will see, imagination.

(En español, aquí)

--

--

Enrique Dans
Enrique Dans

Professor of Innovation at IE Business School and blogger (in English here and in Spanish at enriquedans.com)