Managing Personal Health Risk: Opportunities in the New Normal post-COVID-19

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Entrepreneurial Ashokans

9 min readApr 26, 2020

The onset of COVID-19 has brought about a new normal for all of us, as individuals and as a society. With 2.9 million cases around the world and over 200,000 deaths currently, this pandemic is clearly affecting lives at this very moment, but will also have a lasting effect for the next several years. Why will the effects of COVID-19 be so long-lasting? Firstly, it may take anywhere between six to twelve months for society to recover on a basic level and find a cure, and up to eighteen months for a vaccine to be fully developed. Widespread distribution of the vaccine and reaching a level of herd immunity for the global populace is likely to take at least a year or two more. At the same time, there is a possibility of the virus mutating or of another SARS-like epidemic occurring in the next few years. With the pressure on global resources and increasing interconnectedness, it’s likely that this is merely one of a series of shocks that will change the global landscape, whether economically, environmentally or medically. All of this suggests that the new normal arising from the COVID-19 pandemic should be something we are prepared to face for at least the next 5–7 years. Thus, it is crucial to recognize the potential changes that need to be made to our lives and the global community at large, to recover from this pandemic as well as ensure that the economy regains stability.

As part of the new normal, business and working environments will adapt to allow for greater social distancing and less possibilities of contagion. Measures to ensure social distancing at work include emphasis on work-from-home, moving to a digital workplace, changing work times through shifts, reduced work weeks and office occupation limits. General behaviour and economic interactions will also be affected. Social interactions should change, with masks being compulsory, no handshakes, hugs or touches; keeping a safe distance must be the new norm. Travel behaviours can be altered by limiting the number of passengers in transportation and odd-even number vehicles allowed on different days. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, the landscape of healthcare systems and how we protect ourselves will need to undergo massive variations for global health improvement.

Looking at the latter in more detail, some aspects of this transformation are obvious, like the expansion and upgradation of current healthcare systems and the large-scale production of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). The world needs to invest in the large-scale production of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers on the front lines, especially with their increased risk to the disease with constant contact with infected patients and a simultaneous lack of supplies to actually keep themselves safe in the process of saving lives. PPE like masks and protective clothing are also useful for individual safety, particularly with airborne diseases like this one.

An issue that may be overlooked in this context is the need for identification of vulnerable segments of society and creating specific strategies for individual health risk management. From a systemic standpoint, it is necessary that high-risk and more vulnerable people are isolated, to reduce the overall spread of the disease as well as the healthcare burden. It is perhaps even more important for individuals, so that they can plan their social and work life — which occupations they should take up, managing interpersonal interactions and overall behavioural modifications to be made. In fact, a quick survey conducted to comprehend this situation showed that this was one of the top priorities for most of the respondents. 92% of respondents felt that it was important for them to understand their own levels of risk and vulnerability to diseases like this one, of which 58% felt it was extremely important. Informal conversations with others confirmed the necessity of a solution when they mentioned that this was a concern at the forefront of their minds as well.

A solution to this problem can be reached using the EDIPT model of the human-centred design thinking process, involving the elements of empathy and immersion into the mindset of a customer or user, definition and reframing of the problem, ideation of possible solutions, prototyping and testing. As part of the first element — empathy — gathering information on the users’ thoughts, feelings, beliefs, needs and motivations is a crucial aspect. A market research survey was carried out amongst more than a hundred respondents to compile this very information, which was then used to find possible ideas or solutions for the problem of personal risk assessment.

The respondents were broadly divided into two age groups, those who were students (18–25 years) and employed or self-employed adults who were older and more susceptible to COVID-19 (41–60 years). 86% of the survey participants felt that age is a major contributor to vulnerability to diseases like COVID-19, 77% felt that co-morbidity or pre-existing diseases play a large role, and 57% were of the opinion that occupational hazards also contribute to overall risk. These beliefs seem to be backed by fact in this particular situation — according to data released by the CDC, more than 79% of deaths from COVID-19 have been in the age group of people over 65 years. Additionally, when approaching the issue of individualized risk assessment, respondents had a number of concerns and aspects that they found central to the process. While 66% of respondents found accuracy to be the most essential aspect required, the simplicity and efficiency of the results as well as cost minimization and privacy of data were also important contenders to be taken into consideration while designing such a test. Other suggestions and remarks from the participants of the survey highlighted worries about the accessibility and availability of the test, particularly for the less economically privileged sections of society.

Accordingly, one potential solution to the problem of accurate and personalized risk assessment is a quick and cheap predictive test, on personal risk and vulnerability levels for diseases like COVID-19. The test could be carried out individually and in the comfort of the user’s own home, perhaps through the platform of an easily accessible application or a handheld device. The market research survey shows that 93% of participants were interested in such a test, of which 73% found such a test to be extremely necessary.

The test, designed based on the major concerns and feedback from respondents, would be single-use, and a combination of a medical diagnostic test and a set of predictive questions. It would result in the user’s percentage of risk towards the disease as well as customized and personalized advice on behavioural modifications and the hazards of certain occupations. The medical diagnostic could be based on a model like the customary DNA swab, blood glucose level testing device for patients with Diabetes Mellitus (generally for type 1 diabetes), or an antibody test. The questionnaire could be built off a similar premise to that of HealthifyMe, one of India’s largest digital weight loss and fitness platforms. In order to ensure the most accurate fitness and diet regimes for users, the HealthifyMe app has a brief, non-intrusive questionnaire to be answered by users. Similarly, the risk assessment device would also require some information on medical history, pre-existing disorders and genetic or hereditary illnesses prevalent in the user’s history. As one of the survey respondents pointed out, the questions would also have to factor in some external conditions related to the quality of the individual’s environment, workplace and home in addition to the individual’s internal and inherent qualities, while maintaining a lack of invasiveness. With a simplistic and easy to navigate interface, the overarching data system of the test would be an AI-based learning system with continuous improvement with every instance of increase in user data, able to hone accuracy and efficiency of results while also fine tuning the accompanying advice. Data privacy could be assured with the help of tools like blockchain technology or cloud storage away from the public domain.

The current design of the test was surveyed by and received feedback from a group that largely consisted of the more well off and economically comfortable section of society. This allowed for 30% of respondents being prepared to pay upto a 1000 rupees for the test and another 43% being willing to pay an even higher price. However, for the poorer sections of society, these are not easily affordable prices, and thus a cheaper and potentially more basic model of the test could also be designed, without compromising on the integrity and accuracy of the test. The simultaneous release of both models of the test should also be considered, with the more advanced test targeting the more affluent segments of society. The advanced version of the test could also be considered for the export market, as the population in developed nations would be able to afford a considerably higher price. This was corroborated by remarks from some of the survey respondents based outside India.

Converting such a test into a viable business model requires a few more steps. A basic prototype would allow for feasibility checks and further customer feedback, which, through an iterative process, could be advanced to a more market-ready prototype. A quick financial analysis should accompany this process, involving the potential costs and revenue of such a product, as well as exploring and tweaking details to increase the viability and sustainability of the product. Potential tie-ups with government bodies or NGOs could also be considered, particularly to cover partial costs for those unable to afford the full price of the more basic test; if not, alternate methods of subsidization of the test for the poor and disadvantaged must also be explored.

As we can see, the transformation of how we as individuals and a society deal with the aftermath of COVID-19 leads to dramatic changes. While large-scale health facilities need to be upgraded, the Korean and Chinese examples suggest that the micro approach — by testing, tracking, treating and quarantining individuals — is also critical. With the increased strain on resources, medical and otherwise, being able to pinpoint the people who need treatment the most urgently is also vital, and can only be carried out through this process of tracking and tracing people. However, as Ripun Mehta pointed out in his guest lecture, in this world of digitization, it is also important to ensure that this tracing and verification of data occurs while allowing for data privacy; the fear of government surveillance and misuse of data looms over many individuals and could prevent a more widespread acceptance of such techniques to ensure containment of pandemics like COVID-19. An interesting example of this is Cambridge-based non-profit Simprints, one of the major pioneers for a contactless biometric system that would help with patient identification and rapid deployment of vaccines and treatment, while also maintaining patient privacy rights and data security.

While COVID-19 has caused drastic upheavals in all of our lives and will continue to affect us for the next several years, there are still opportunities to harness creative and innovative solutions that will help mitigate its worst effects. The personal risk assessment proposed in this paper is one of many such examples which are likely to emerge in the near future.