The UN Predicts Achieving 2.9 Degrees C of Global Warming by the End of the Century
If you think we will have to wait until the end of the century,
say about another 76 years from now, to hit 2.9 degrees of warming, just an additional 0.9 degrees, then you have not been listening to explanations of exponential growth.
According to James Hansen, et al, in "Global Warming is Accelerating. Why? Will We Fly Blind?", 14 September 2023, the Best Linear Fit (1970-2010) of the 132-month running mean is 0.18 degrees C/decade of warming. That indicates 0.9 degrees of warming in 5 decades. Post-date that from when we crossed 2 degrees of warming. That also suggests 1.35 degrees C of warming by the end of the century. But the rate of warming has accelerated exponentially.
Since 2010 the rate of warming has increased. We're also entering the El Nino phase, so we can expect higher than normal warming rates. We're also entering a phase of high solar activity. We've also entered a period of geomagnetic excursion that weakens the Van Allen Radiation Belts.
No one knows or no one is telling, how fast more warming is coming and all of the publically available models are self-identified as skewed to the most conservative probabilities. The pattern has been to grossly underestimate both the extent and timing of global warming.
The Fifth National Climate Assessment says the global temperature has increased faster in the last 50 years than in at least the last 2000 years. It also puts an 11-degree temperature rise by the end of the century on the table if we follow the worst-case scenario, which we are.
