FACEIT Major: London — New Legends Stage — Esports Forecasts Model Preview
We’re into the New Legends Stage at Counterstrike’s 2018 London Major. Let’s take a look at how our model’s been doing so far, and which teams it favours to advance to the New Champions Stage.
This major started with the Challengers Stage, which completed with 8 teams being eliminated. In this stage, the model favorite won their series 66.7% of the time — which is pretty much exactly the hit rate that I expect out of the model. The biggest shock of this stage came right at the end with Vega Squadron eliminating North — recent winner of DreamHack Masters Stockholm — while having only a 13% chance of doing so based on our model.
Now that we are into the New Legends Stage, we have eight new teams joining those that have advanced. It may be surprising to see Ninjas in Pyjamas and MiBR rated above FaZe Clan according to our model. FaZe’s rating reflects that they have been struggling recently, whereas NIP was recently able to best Astralis in a grueling 28–26 victory on Mirage. MiBR’s dominating performance at the ZOTAC Cup is the biggest contributor to their high rating.
You can compare our team rankings against futures odds at the bookmaker of your choice to hopefully find value bets for the tournament winner — I found attractive odds for Ninjas in Pyjamas and Complexity Gaming based on my bookie’s odds.
Taking a look at the first round of the New Legends Stage — we were able to find a strong value bet on Complexity to top Fnatic. Fnatic has been weak lately and our model puts them as the underdog, while most bookmakers have them as the favorite for this map.
As the results come in for round one, our model will update its ratings based on each team’s performance. Note that these predictions do not incorporate the map pick as this is not yet known — you can enter the map pick directly on our the series page to see who got the best of the map pick/ban phase. Note that we’ve also recently improved our Counterstrike rating system — and we feel like this is giving our model a significant edge over the bookmakers.
If you need a refresher on how the model works, our introduction page should explain the basics.
Enjoy all the Counterstrike action in the New Legends Stage, and check in at our website for updated forecasts for each round of the Swiss System!
