Cryptocurrency Sentiment Analysis
For the past several weeks, we’ve been interacting with the Ethos community to gather sentiment data around the cryptocurrency sector. On some level, crypto assets are driven by sentiment and the perception of value more so than virtually any other commodity in the world. So we thought we would gather data signals from our community about their sentiment of specific cryptocurrencies, as well as their perception about the industry in general.
We want to gratefully thank everyone who participated in these surveys, and encourage people to continue to respond.
This survey was conducted with a sample size of approximately 2000 respondents queried weekly. They were asked simple questions such as “Do you think Bitcoin will go up and down?” in a simple survey format. While the survey was anonymous, many respondents chose to share email, and participation was limited by IP address to once per week. The respondents were primary “hardcore” crypto enthusiasts.
Sentiment took a dip at the end of March, then steadily grew through April plateauing post tax day. Basically the respondents collectively seemed to sense that Bitcoin would pop after taxes were filed.
Note that the percentage of respondents who believed Bitcoin would go down dropped from 17.5% during the last week of March to 4.1% after April 15th (tax day)
It’s interesting to compare this against actual Bitcoin price performance, and the correlation with price gains around the end of March preceding the post April 15th bump.
Ethereum sentiment unsurprisingly correlated very closely to Bitcoin price sentiment, with tiny bit more pessimism at the end. In this case, the amount of people who thought Ethereum would go down in price fell from a peak of 18% to 4.6% after April 15th. (Notably close but slightly higher than the 4.1% compared to Bitcoin)
Ethereum price performance again mostly correlated sentiment.
Interestingly, sentiment regarding Ripple was uniformly more negative. Meaning — the majority still correctly predicted Ripple’s price increase (along with the whole market rise), but a larger percentage disagreed with the majority in believing Ripple would go down in price — a peak of 31.4% declining to 21.6% after April 15th.
This is despite the fact that Ripple basically correlated to Bitcoin’s performance.
Litecoin was similar to Ripple, but had a downtrend in negative sentiment towards the end of April. Litecoin had a very strong “sentiment recovery” during this time.
Again, the Litecoin trend mirrors the other coins almost exactly.
Just asking for sentiment data around Bitcoin Cash was in itself controversial, as some respondents objected to the very existence of the question. Given the strong passions involved, it was not surprising to see sharper sentiment trends, as well as the strongest negative sentiment of the coins. This was the only coin that almost had “crossed streams” of negative sentiment overlapping with positive sentiment.
Also World Coin Index doesn’t seem to have Bitcoin Cash charts :-)
Participants were asked to rank their enthusiasm for the sector from 1 to 10. Enthusiasm was dampened by the drop in prices, but stayed between a fairly narrow range of 9.1 to 8.86. In other words, the volatility didn’t seem to phase anybody very much.
Participants were asked if they planned to Invest More into Crypto, Stand Pat eg HODL or Cash Out, meaning transfer crypto assets to fiat. Even though these respondents are hard-core crypto enthuiasts, it was stunning to see that virtually nobody planned to cash out (or at least wanted to say they would)
In a similar vein, respondents were asked if they were Satisified or Dissatisifed with the crypto industry in general. There was more of a noticeable uptick with prices, which was unsurpising.
Respondents were asked whether they were seeing more serious projects or scams. With the ICO gold rush and various clear scams, the market has clearly gotten more sensitive to out-and-out scams. However, according to the respondents, there has been a noticeable uptick in quality over the last 30 days.
Crypto and the Traditional Financial Ecosystem
Finally, respondents were asked if they thought the tradtional financial system would push back or partake in crypto. Again over the past 30 days there has been a noticable gain in confidence that the crypto will integrate into the traditional system in some form or fashion.
The fact that these data signals are coming from serious crypto enthusiasts needs to be factored in. There may be some degree of wishful thinking or “right answer” for the individual positions respondents might have. However, even with that factored in, this data offers a glimpse of the power of the crowd, and how crypto communities can collectively be smarter than the individual.
Ethos will keep these surveys going! If you’d like to join the list, please visit https://www.ethos.io/sign-up/ and sign up for Ethos News & Updates.
Once again, thank you to all participants.