Why the EU will not grant immediate access to Ukraine?
President Volodymyr Zelensky formally requested to be granted candidate status and to promptly be accepted into the EU amid the Russian invasion, but here’s why this is impossible at the moment.
A few days into the Russian invasion of its territory, Ukraine urged the European Union to be immediately integrated into the bloc[1], as well as NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), as a way to slow down the ongoing Russian invasion and have easier access to funds and weapons. However, can the UE deliver such a response so quickly? In addition, what would be the consequences of having a State at war inside the Union?
EU’s requirements for accession[2]
First, it is necessary to understand the enlargement process of the European Union. The country willing to adhere needs to send a formal request of such a wish that will be analysed by the European Commission — providing its opinion on the matter — and approved by the European Council unanimously. With the green light from both bodies, the candidate country must then seek to reach the goals established by the previous bodies, in line with the Copenhagen criteria[3], that enshrines the minimum standards for accession. The European Parliament and each national assembly must also ratify the decision of accepting a new country in the bloc.
Such goals are related mainly to economic, social and institutional aspects. To be a member of the European Union, a State must prove it is a democratic State, able to defend individual liberties and promote the values of the bloc, such as human rights, free press, and fair access to justice, among many other liberties and values. In the economic field, the State must show it has economic freedom to guarantee a free flow of capital and goods between itself and the other members. Besides that, it must also show fiscal and budgetary responsibility and agree to introduce the euro as its currency in the future. In the institutional aspect, it must comply with EU law and show it has the reliable and fair mechanisms to introduce them in its legal system and to monitor its effective application, as well as compromising with the EU’s budget, decision-making, and legal and political decisions made by the bloc.
This amount of requirements makes the accession process considerably lengthy, taking up to 10 years in most cases. The last large enlargement that saw the entrance of 10 Eastern European countries in 2004[4] took in general 11 years to be done, with some countries applying 14 years before, like the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
Can the EU grant a fast-track alternative for Ukrainian entry?
Under this bureaucratic and normative point of view, Ukraine has little to no chance of entering the EU right away. The country still lags behind the EU’s criteria for adhesion and would need to take some long-term policies in order to comply with them[5]. On the political side, however, the fast-track enlargement would mean two things for the EU: one, an extra-legal decision since there is nothing in the treaties that talks about such a possibility, thus making it open to contestation; two it would put the EU in a bad position with the countries waiting in line for adhesion[6], such as Albania, Turkey, North Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzegovina[7], Serbia, and even Kosovo[8]; Even though the situation in Ukraine is understandable, this would open a precedent for the other countries to also consider looking for gaps in the treaties to find excuses to accede faster and without complying to all criteria.
The other difficult point for the Ukrainian accession request is that all Member States shall approve it, unanimously, and in a bloc with 27 different countries, such a consensus may be hard to achieve. Zelensky can count on the goodwill of Mrs de Leyen and Mr Charles Michel to advocate for his cause during EU Council sessions, but goodwill in international politics rarely makes big changes alone.
But the main issue with the prompt entrance of Ukraine into the bloc would be embracing a country at war, meaning that all of the bloc would also be virtually at war, as there is a mutual defence clause[9] in case one of the EU Member States is attacked by a third country. This would mean a direct confrontation with Russia - which controls one of the world’s most powerful armies - and would likely throw Europe into a scenario of destruction similar to that witnessed during the years of World War II.
Moreover, it is to be noted that the EU is not a military alliance, its Foreign and Security Policy is still a topic of hard cohesion inside the bloc given its complexity and conflicting interests of Member States in the international and security fields. This would mean an active presence of NATO in an eventual open war against Russia, pushing the United States also into the battlefield. For the EU, such a scenario is the worst possible. Besides the obvious destruction caused by the conflict, the continent would be thrown again in the shadows of its North American partner, hindering its plan for increased geopolitical autonomy from the U.S.
Conclusion
Ukraine’s appeal for European Union’s candidacy is valid and there is will from both sides to push for the actual entry; Ukraine is, above all, one of the largest and richest countries in Europe when it comes to highly demanded commodities by the Union, like wheat, sunflower seeds, corn, and iron ore, while was until very recently advancing in topics related to democracy and rule of law. Nevertheless, the country has virtually no chance of joining the EU while it is at open war with Russia and will not be fit to do so in the years to come after the conflict is over.
The door for EU’s fast-track route membership was shut at the Versailles Summit of the Heads of State or Government, on March 11th. As many national leaders rejected the appeal made by Ukraine, like the Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte or his Croatian counterpart, Andrej Plenkovic, the EU finds itself in a no-consensus zone, making it impossible for an enlargement now[10]. Although such denial of fast accession, the Summit’s declaration states that it recognizes the Ukrainian wish to be in the EU and emphasized that the country is part of the European family [11].
The best way the EU can show support for Ukraine while not involving itself in the conflict is to keep pressuring Russia with sanctions in an attempt to strangle the country’s economy while providing financial and military aid to the Ukrainian army. The EU can also play an important humanitarian role in accepting the ever-growing number of refugees, mostly women and children, fleeing the war-torn country, and providing them safety and space to restart their lives.
