Crises on Europe’s Eastern border
As the CCCP started crumbling many former soviet republics regained their original independent sovereignty. In many countries, the ethnicities changed drastically, thanks to several years of gerrymandering policies during the Soviet era. Cultural differences still shape current demographics, mining homogeneity in policymaking and resulting today in a growing political crisis.
let’s take into account several examples:
Georgia enduring a political crisis
Elections took place in Georgia In last October, won by the current ruling power, the ქართული ოცნება (Georgian Dream party). Quoting international observers the election was basically competitive, free, and fair. Moreover, sufficient irregularities did not emerge to call it fraudulent, but the opposition party within Georgia cried foul, saying that it was a rigged election in the favour of the Georgian dream party. Subsequently, many boycotts took place such as opposition party members refusing to take seats in the parliament over this election. The head of the opposition, ნიკა მელია (Nika Melia), was arrested in February, through a police raid of the headquarters, called the ერთიანი ნაციონალური მოძრაობა (United National Movement). The two parties do not communicate up to now. Before he was arrested the prime minister, გიორგი გახარია (Giorgi Gakharia), resigned after a Tbilisi court ordering this arrest. He resigned because he feared that Melia’s arrest would further polarize Georgia at a very fragile time of the country’s politics, thus he tried to step down as he said “in the country’s best interest”. The result is a parliament with most of its seats empty and on-going protests up to date”. Worth mentioning is Charles Michel’s visit to Tbilisi on 1st March. Since 2008 20% of Georgia’s sovereign territory has been occupied by Russia, especially the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, claiming them as independent republics. This visit reassured the EU’s will to support the western Caucasian country pushing for the re-establishment of democracy.
Nagorno Karabakh war’s repercussions in Armenia
Far different is the situation in Georgia’s neighboring countries. For instance, Armenia woke up severely damaged by the conflict in Արցախ (Artsakh), Dağlıq Qarabağ (in Azerbaijani) Nagorno Karabakh in English, a region long while inhabited by both Azeris and Armenians, today legally part of Azerbaijan. The roots of this conflict lay way back in time, surely the most significant event was the creation of the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO, Нагорно-Карабахская автономная область). After the Sovietization of Armenia and Azerbaijan, on 7th July 1923, the NKAO came into existence as an island, with an estimated 89,2% of its population being ethnically Armenian in the central districts. The pursued logic was that of divide et impera, focusing on maintaining this fragile area ethnically divided, in order to prevent any of the two small Caucasus nations from full sovereignty over this territory. During the last years of the Soviet Union, many ethnic displacements took place. In the meanwhile, ethnic Armenians held a referendum in 1988 calling for self-determination, this was considered to be illegitimate by their counterpart and by Moscow. As the CCCP collapsed Armenians secured their control in a two-year-long war over Nagorno-Karabakh as a whole. There have been multiple attempts to gain international approval, Artsakh’s right to self-determination was supported by a European Parliament resolution back in 1988. On the Azerbaijani side, there have been various calls for the intervention of UN peace-keeping forces, but because of lack of funding, no actual outcome was reached.
Long story short, both ethnicities committed atrocities against each other (Sumgait pogrom and Khojaly massacre), whereas in the past they prospered together. As Armenians got themselves in an unequal fight against a richer and further foreign-supported country, it was almost granted that they would have got out of the conflict severely damaged, less obvious were the actual consequences. 4000 Hayastani servicemen lost their lives, in contrast to almost 3000 Azerbaijani soldiers (+550 Syrian mercenaries). The aftermath of these six weeks of fighting was catastrophic, almost the whole Armenian community was displaced, bomb shellings hit cities outside of the conflict, most notoriously the city of Ganja. It is worth mentioning the heavy destruction brought to the capital city of Artsakh, Stepanakert. A fatigued ceasefire was reached between the two Caucasian countries, fostered by Russia and Turkey, allegedly granting access from mainland Armenia to Stepanakert through the Lachin corridor and vice versa a corridor from Azeri Nagorno Karabakh through the Armenian Syunik region to Nakhchivan exclave. As a result, the Prime Minister of the new republic of Armenia, which came to existence after the Velvet revolution in 2018, Նիկոլ Փաշինյան (Nikol Pashinyan) was encountered with the rage and disappointment of its citizens, calling for his resignation after a bloody war. Subsequently, tempers started heating up as many protestors stormed the Parliament on a regular basis, the PM was warning that a military coup was trying to take place. Protests are still ongoing as the incredible advantage in Nagorno Karabakh by Armenia in 1994 was wiped out in a matter of weeks. A parliamentary election was announced to take place in June 2021.
Moldova approaching the European Union
On Christmas’ eve 2020 Moldova drastically shifted its political alignment. For the first time ever a pro-European female president was elected. From the Party of Action and Solidarity, Maia Sandu managed to achieve various crucial goals in only two months in office. Most important of all, a strengthened renewed relationship with the European Union was established. The first result of such cooperation was announced on 27th February, as the European Commission coordinated the shipment of 21,600 doses from Romania to Moldova, enabling to kick off vaccinations as of 2nd March. Moreover, following Sandu’s visit to Brussels in January, on 28th February Charles Michel was greeted in Chișinău. These two visits were crucial in coordinating a common response to tackle the Covid pandemic. Michel stressed the reliability of the EU as the biggest trading partner and market for Moldovan exports, as well as the intent amount of money mobilized to help the country (approximately 200 million euros). The last point was a call to reforms as the path towards adhesion to the EU is becoming shorter and shorter.
Ukraine’s long-lasting sufferance
The situation in Ukraine is far more fragile. As of March 2014, the Crimea peninsula held a controversial referendum, illegal under the Ukrainian and Crimean constitutions. The goal was for Russian separatists to reunify with Russia. A military intervention granted the alleged independence declaring the peninsula as a Russian oblast, granting safe access to the Black Sea.
The following month the Region of Donbas saw skirmishes grow in intensity as Russian paramilitary troops advanced towards Donetsk. This region has always been a crucial area to Russia, since it represents a buffer zone, with highly fertile soil. In some districts, up to 60% of the population are ethnically Russian and have always been mining Ukrainian sovereignty. On 18th March 2014 the President of the European Council stated:
“The sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of Ukraine must be respected. The European Union does neither recognise the illegal and illegitimate referendum in Crimea nor its outcome. The European Union does not and will not recognise the annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation.”
The conflict has been at a stalemate ever since, however, on 2nd March the President of the European Council Charles Michel underlined the importance of bringing peace to the region, calling for the implementation of the Minsk Agreements, signed in 2014.
Credits to Kənan Huseynov.
