The dangerous game in the Eastern Mediterranean sea
Conflict is simmering on the surface of the Mediterranean sea, with over a dozen nations involved. Countries like Turkey, Egypt, and Greece are already engaging in a maritime dance of political posturing and further escalation is definitely likely.
At the center of this cauldron is a series of gas basins located some 160 kilometers off the shores of the Island of Cyprus. It is here, the eastern Mediterranean sea, where a single spark could light a geopolitical firestorm.
The Levantine basins are major deposits of hydrocarbons, offshore gas, and other natural riches. The Aphrodite gas field is estimated to have over 1600 million barrels of oil and around 3 to 6 trillion ft³ of natural gas. Its value when fully exploited numbers well over nine billion USD. Companies like Shell and Delek drilling have invested heavily in the area. These deposits lie in an area of intense regional rivalry and political posturing. Surrounded by belligerent powers on all sides, it becomes easy to see why such a lucrative resource could become an international liability.
The closest entities to these gas basins are the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish republic of northern Cyprus; the two have been in a contentious stalemate since the Turkish invasion of 1974.
The Republic of Cyprus has deep ties with Greece, strong relations with the West, and a member of the European Union, on the other hand, the Turkish republic of northern Cyprus is a de facto state whose sovereignty is only recognized by Turkey, putting the northern part of the island in a weak international standing.
Such a situation has ramifications on the exploitation of natural gas resources in the Levantine Basin.
The Republic of Cyprus, with wider international recognition, is granted an exclusive economic zone that enables it to ensure control over the oceanic resources within 370.4 kilometers off its coastline. Lacking the same level of recognition, Northern Cyprus has no such legal base. Moreover, Turkey and Greece have long been considered the leading players in Eastern Mediterranean, for decades the two have disputed over various areas of maritime territory, much of which stems from Greece’s control over an array of islands located just off Turkey’s shores.
Under the United Nations Convention on the law of the sea, these islands make up Greece’s exclusive economic zone, which in turn threatens Turkey’s own ability to access key resources such as natural gas basins to the country’s south.
Both nations have used the Cyprus conflict as part of this wider political friction.
Ankara argues that northern Cyprus is entitled to oceanic resources as much as the Republic of Cyprus, so the Turks used this argument to extend their access to the Levantine basin, while virtually cutting Greece off. The Greeks, unsatisfied with this proposal, put their own claim that would cut Turkey off from the wider Mediterranean.
The trouble seems that both nations have taken maximalist attitudes.
While Greece and Cyprus are seeking to use international organizations like the European Union to stem Turkish movements into the Eastern Mediterranean, this tactic resulted to work partially, since Turkey still retains friends in the EU and has managed to avoid complete sanctions.
Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean have been accelerating ever since. In February 2018 a major dispute erupted in the Mediterranean when Turkish warships stopped an Italian drillship from entering its claimed waters. The incident was a foreshadow of things to come. However, The dispute between Athens and Ankara is not limited to the island of Cyprus.
The Turkish scenario
Turkey, recognizing that it must find other avenues to secure its oceanic claims, has begun advances in war-torn Libya. In December 2019 Ankara mobilized some of the Syrian-based proxies to the Libyan battlespace. These Syrian fighters and other rebel militias salvaged the Tripoli-based government from certain doom and repelled the forces of the Tobruk-based government. At around the same time, Turkish lawmakers met with key officials of the UN-recognized Government of National Accord based in Tripoli. A deal was struck between the two parties, one that would connect Turkey’s exclusive economic zone to Libya’s northeastern coast, the deal however sparked outrage from Athens and other powers. Subsequently, France immediately threw its support behind Nicosia, claiming that Ankara was intervening in the sovereign waters of Cyprus. However, the authentic reason for the French resentment is the Turks’ salvation of the Tripoli-based government, as since 2015 France has been supporting the forces of general Haftar of the Libyan National Army, the representative body based in Tobruk.
By striking a deal with Tripoli, Turkey had capsized the strategy of France.
Relations between Paris and Ankara became so bitter that in July 2020 France pulled out of Nato’s Operation Sea Guardian and denounced Ankara, claiming that it had violated the weapons embargo in Libya. As tensions reignited in Libya it roused the attention of Libyan immediate neighbor.
The role of Egypt
Egypt has for many years supported the armed forces of the Tobruk government as President El Sisi has worked extensively with general Haftar. As the Tripoli government began making substantial gains in the summer of 2020, mostly thanks to Turkish support, Egypt was forced to react.
In June the Egyptian president attempted to push for ceasefire deals and negotiations at the United Nations while ongoing rumors pointed to military intervention by the Egyptian military. Although no forces have been committed yet, Egypt’s parliament has approved the deployment of Egyptian troops into Libya.
Further complicating the geopolitical situation is Egypt’s claims to the Levantine basin. Cairo has worked diligently to foster stronger ties with the other Mediterranean powers to access the basin. In January 2019 the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (nicknamed OPEC of the Mediterranean) was founded in Cairo.
Officials from Greece, Italy, the Republic of Cyprus, Jordan, Israel, and even Palestine partook in the forum. The goal was to collaborate on the exploration and production of hydrocarbons belonging to the Mediterranean states. Turkey was deliberately left out.
January 2020: Egypt initiates a large-scale meeting with Cyprus, France, Greece, and Italy to denounce Turkey’s actions in Libya. A few months later Cairo signed a maritime border deal with Greece, an act that would enable both countries to cooperate on resource exploitation but would also undermine Turkish access to the sea.
Lebanon and Israel: two smaller players
Undergoing a severe economic crisis, Lebanon has struggled to gain a significant stake in the Levantine Basin. The country has worked extensively with the Republic of Cyprus, establishing bilateral agreements that would allow the Greeks to assist Lebanon in drilling into the basin. Eventually, this relationship resulted to be uneven, since the Lebanese rely on Greek assistance to exploit their own maritime zone.
Israel on the other hand has attempted to assert itself into a more dominant position while also garnering the support of the other nations. Much of the Israeli policy has revolved around its relationship with Turkey, which has been at rock bottom in recent years. As president Erdogan has pulled away from Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu has had to adjust his strategic leanings towards Turkey. The result is an alliance between Israel, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus.
In January 2020 these parties would sign the Eastern Mediterranean Pipeline Deal, a gas pipeline that would bring Mediterranean hydrocarbons to European markets and bypass Turkey while doing so. Moreover, the pipeline would violate Turkey’s access to these reserves according to Turkish officials.
A geopolitical map hanging in the balance
When one takes a step back the geopolitical map becomes more understandable with two sides emerging from opposite ends: On one side there is Turkey with its closed networks of allies in northern Cyprus and Tripoli-based Libya. On the other end is a relatively loose chain of relationships, including Greece, the Republic of Cyprus, France, Israel, Egypt, and Tobruk-based Libya.
Although Turkey is capable and resilient it does not have the economy, military, or diplomatic means to counter all these nations simultaneously. The country is dealing with monetary and financial issues, however, that principle applies to most of the Mediterranean states. As Greece is yet to recover from the 2008 recession, France is over exhausted with its engagements all over Africa. Egypt is focused on safeguarding its rivers from Ethiopian dams (Grand Renaissance dam), Libya is devastated by conflict and Israel is dealing with pro-Iranian proxies taking camp at its borders (as Hezbollah is also being backed by Turkish soft power).
None of the coastal states have spare assets or resources to employ, which could exactly be the problem. The most significant factor contributing to the tensions is economic since nearly all of the Mediterranean nations have faltering economies.
The wealth underneath the seabed holds promises of economic salvation that the entire region needs so desperately.
political rhetoric and military posturing are tools to gain an edge in the final negotiations for delineation, thus for the Mediterranean nations, the fight over maritime zones and regional influence is one of life and death, where losing means financial collapse and ruin.
