While we’re waiting for US Elections results, Europe is holding its breath
Yesterday was the big day: Election Day decrees the winner between the two candidates that will take the White House for the next 4 years.
Even though we are just spectators, the results are eagerly awaited not only by the Americans and Europe itself is waiting with some trepidation.
As the transatlantic relationship has repeatedly been threatened over the past four years, the results of the American elections could significantly impact not only the liaison itself but for Europe and the world as a whole. In order to understand the reason for this level of interest, it is necessary to answer some questions. What do the American elections mean for Europe? What could be the consequences of Trump’s re-election or, alternatively, of Biden’s election? Let’s start from the beginning.
The transatlantic relationship within NATO
First of all, the Atlantic Alliance could significantly be affected by US presidential elections, leading to a potential risk of NATO’s unity or, conversely, to a possible step towards cooperation. The lack of feeling between Trump and NATO is well known. Already in 2016, during his election campaign, Trump made serious attacks to the Atlantic Alliance, defining it as “obsolete” and no longer useful to counter the threats posed in the current international scenario. Trump has repeatedly criticised what he sees as the unjust burden-sharing with the European allies, accusing them of making an insufficient economical contribution to the collective effort and of exploiting the US “safety umbrella”. Actually, already in 2014 NATO had moved to close at least part of the expenditure gap, formalising the commitment to allocate 2% of GDP to defence expenditure. However, the increase in military spending in the United States during the Trump presidency contributed to the persistence of a wide differential between the two sides of the Atlantic. Consequently, in July this year, Trump announced the intention to withdraw about 12,000 troops from Germany as a response to Berlin’s low defence investment. As it is possible to notice, Trump’s position has not changed during his first mandate and with all probabilities it will not either during a possible second one, leaving the transatlantic relationships in a state of substantial uncertainty. By contrast, during the presidential campaign, Biden defined NATO as “the single most consequential alliance in the history of the United States.” It is, therefore, possible to imagine that, as a potential consequence of Biden’s victory, there could be room for initiatives that renew the transatlantic relationship, notwithstanding the possible pressure on Europeans to invest more in their own defence.
Transatlantic relationship towards China
In regard to economic and trade alliances, Trump and Biden have different views on the role of US allies and partners, including the European Union. On the one hand, Trump views the European Union as an economic competitor, according to his “America first” approach. On the other hand, Biden views Europe as a strategic partner for the US. This different approach could change the type of transatlantic cooperation towards, for example, Chinese behaviours that concerned both the EU and the US, such as the absence of reciprocity in procurement rules, the persistent lack of a level-playing field in the economic area and the distorting effects of industrial subsidies. According to the EU High Representative Josep Borrell, the EU and the US agree on many points on China. Nevertheless, the chosen methods related to the American foreign policy — lately so often unilateral in nature — at times have been “harmful in substance to EU interests.” During his presidency, Trump adopted increasingly hostile policies towards China, thus encouraging the US allies — including the EU — to pursue an independent course. Can we expect something different under the eventual Biden’s presidency? The establishment of a new EU-US strategic dialogue for cooperation on shared challenges related to China would be a welcome development. Maybe Biden would form a united front in negotiation with China, working alongside the EU. However, this cooperation could also lead to the creation of an anti-China alliance that could further affect the international economic balance.
The US and the World Health Organisation
The American aversion to China found a point of exasperation this year, with the outbreak of the pandemic from Covid-19. In this regard, Trump has taken a stand against China and the World Health Organisation, accusing the WHO of being under China’s control. In particular, Trump blames the WHO of failing “to make the requested and greatly needed reforms”. In late May, President Trump announced the withdrawal of the US from the WHO, of which America was one of the largest contributors. On this decision, Biden tweeted:” On my first day as President, I will rejoin the WHO and restore our leadership on the world stage.” For their part, EU leaders asked the US to reconsider its decision, in order not to frustrate international efforts to contain and mitigate the pandemic.
US elections and climate change
Last but not least, it is important to mention another important area that could significantly affect not only Europe but the entire world. According to some experts, who occupies the White House during the next Presidency could play a significant role in climate change. As is well known, Trump withdrew from the 2015 Paris Climate agreement, which is a landmark agreement to combat climate change. In addition to this withdrawal, President Trump has worked to remove all the possible obstacles to efficient energy production. The idea behind this project was to create more jobs cutting back on regulations of all kinds, in order to keep the economy growing. Certainly, pulling out of the Paris Accord was also a strong message to the world about the dissensus of the US on the international position on climate change. Trump’s victory would imply a confirmation of the American’s departure from the Paris agreement, as well as a further boost of fuel production, with serious implications for global temperatures. For his part, Joe Biden’s climate plan provides for a US carbon-free by 2035, implementing the creation of a green economy.
European hopes and expectations
Despite the fact that elections normally only concern the nation involved, the American Presidential elections this year seem to be slightly different. Europe and the world are holding their breath waiting for the election’s outcome. According to statistics, an overwhelming majority of people across Europe are rooting for Joe Biden. However, despite this widespread support, the research found that a considerable part of the public remains uncertain it will come to pass. One thing is certain: regardless of who the winner will be, Europe recognises the importance of the results for the future of the transatlantic relationship. In particular, the hope is that the United States will decide to rejoin the Paris Climate Accord, as well as the World Health Organisation, in order to assume a joint role in the battle against the Covid-19 common enemy.
