Why Putin’s actions shouldn’t surprise us
On Feb 24th 2022, Europe woke up in distress. A full scale aggression has been carried out in Ukraine. The alleged goal? Free Ukranians from a despotic government, which has been brainwashing its citizens with Western propaganda. In addition, Zelensky, along with the other MPs, were deemed as neo-nazi and drug addicts. I won’t be discussing the truthfulness of these claims, however I’d like to focus on some key aspects. First of all, I’ll attempt to summarize the most relevant facts: death toll, breaches of international law and possible outcomes. Then, a very brief depiction of prior events in other former Soviet republics will be taken into consideration. Lastly, I’ll try to provide a summary.
Relevant aspects
The conflict in Ukraine has entered its fourth week, Russia has managed to take control of low positions: the cities of Kherson and almost the entirity of the Azov sea. Yet, major and strategic cities, namely Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkhiv, Mariupol and Mykolaiv are still resisting the heavy shellings resulting in severe damages to civic and military goals. It is hard to exactly assess the death toll, as each side provides conflicting data. However, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, more than 900 civilians have lost their lives and another 1,459 have been wounded between February 24 and March 19. The actual number is “considerably higher” and only time will tell the severity.
On Feb 26 Ukraine filed a formal proceeding to theInternational Court of Justice (ICJ) concerning the “interpretation, application and fulfilment” of the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. The court invited both parts to the proceeding on March 7, however, the Russian Federation refused to take part. Putin launched the “special military operation” to assist the Russian population in Donbass from an alleged genocide, lacking proper documentation. The ICJ esteems that there is a false claim of genocide and therefore, it has no basis in the Genocide Convention. The ICJ stressed the inconsistency of the Russian Federation claims, as no acts of genocide, as defined by Article III of the Genocide Convention, have been committed in the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts of Ukraine. Tables might turn once the Russian Federation will have submitted proper documentation on the matter.
Regarding foreign personnel involved in Ukraine, President Zelensky noted that currently 20,000 foreign fighters coming from 52 countries have joined the Ukrainian forces. At the same time, Russian forces are backed by the Wagner Paramilitary group, 10.000 Chechens special forces and 1000 soldiers from Syrian and Hezbollah forces.
Outcomes
According to some experts’ speculations, Russia has many objectives in mind, three of which share the spotlight.
- Security buffer, reinstate a large buffer zone between Russia and NATO, as during the Cold War. As the USSR crumbled apart, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia managed to join both EU and NATO, Russia perceived this as a threat to its integrity.
- Natural resources: Russia is the second largest producer of oil and gas, representing a high dependency on its GDP. New large extraction hotspots have been discovered in Ukraine, this could make it the second largest oil exporter in the EU.
- Water for Crimea: Ukraine is blocking the North Crimea Canal, which provides water to the now Russian occupied Crimea. This is proving to be very expensive as billions of euros are spent to provide water to safeguard its ports, cities and militry bases.
One thing is certain: Putin has underestimated the Ukrainian ability to counterattack. Even though Russia had 1,350,000 enlisted soldiers and more than 12k tanks, the mere half a million soldiers and 2,5k tanks of Ukraine are fighting back outstandly. This resulted in substantial losses for the Russians, both in humans and in trade agreements. In fact, according to the New York Times, 7000 Russian soldiers were killed. Moreover, Chancellor Olaf Sholtz stated on March 20 that Russia had already lost 10% of its military capacity.
Russia is switching its approach during negotiations. At first, the denazification and impartiality of Ukraine were fundamental demands. Now, it seems that the Russian side demands Ukraine to recognise the 2014 Crimean referendum’s outcome, the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and become a neutral state.
Lastly, many allegations regarding the use of ballistic and hypersonic, together with other prohibited weapons emerged. The Kremlin has stated as sole goals the military outposts, however, by insinuating the presence of far right groups, many hospitals, theaters and schools have been targeted. In the case of Kharkhiv, a repeated use of cluster bombs was denounced. On March 23rd, the mayor of Irpin denounced the use of phosphorus bombs by Russian forces.
The example of Moldova and Georgia
Two examples may help us better understand what’s happening.
On Christmas’ eve 2020 Moldova drastically shifted its political alignment. For the first time ever a pro-European female president was elected. Maia Sandu managed to achieve various crucial goals in only two months in office. Most important of all, a strengthened renewed relationship with the European Union was established. Let’s keep in mind that Moldova has been dealing with a foreign interference since the fall of the USSR. In 1991 Transnistria declared its independence, quickly followed by a disputed referendum of association with Russia. This disputed territory represents a state within a state, as almost each aspect is decided accordingly with Moscow.
The path towards adhesion to the EU is becoming shorter and shorter, instating a possible risk of obstacolation for Moldova in the upcoming months.
On the other side of the Black sea, Georgia represents an even more relevant example, as it reflects many similarities with what is happening now in Ukraine. Since 2008 20% of Georgia’s sovereign territory has been occupied by Russia, namely the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The claims were related to an alleged case of genocide towards Ossetian civilians and a claim of the two regions as independent republics. Once again, no proper documentation has been filed to the International Court of Justice.
Georgia didn’t wait for the war in Ukraine to be over to formally demand adhesion to the EU at the beginning of March.
Being unable to exercise all powers on its territory and being involved in internal conflicts will surely slow down the accession path for both countries.
Conclusion
Ukrainian forces are showing an outstanding ability to protect their homeland and historic heritage, despite the intensity of the Russian invasion. Some international actors emerged to help in negotiations, among them China, Israel and Turkey.
One thing is certain, the Minsk Agreement and the Normandy setting will not be relevant anymore, as tables have dramatically turned around. The Russian federation might switch their tactics in these days, according to some military experts, they may focus more on securing the Donbass area, namely Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. On a side note, RussiaToday and Sputnik from broadcasting in the EU. This mediatic war will grow in intensity in the upcoming months. For instance, it seems that Russian media outlets are changing the story. Namely, intense shellings in Donbas are shown, as if Ukrainian forces were deliberately destroying the two oblasts.
Yet, nothing is predictable at war.
Countries like China, Turkey and Israel might help out in negotiations, even though some of their positions aren’t that condescending. In the latest days, more than 3,5 million refugees have fled Ukraine, it is up to Europe to provide a proper answer. Will this war actually push Member States towards a common military program?
Thoughts and prayers to those who have fallen and are striving for freedom.
