Zoom in the Data: The Deeper Analysis for Italy’s Euro Cup ’24 Elimination
“Hitting Rock Bottom: Shameful!”, “A National Failure”, “Darkness upon Italy” — emotions are still running high in Italian papers, minds, and hearts after the national football team was eliminated from this year’s Euro Cup.
The loss against Switzerland in the round of 16, an unthinkable outcome for the fans of Italy, is a confronting result for a nation so deeply invested in this sport: how could Italy’s team, with an overall market value of 705M€, be beaten by Switzerland’s 281M€ valued squad?
The disappointment is valid, but whilst most critics have focused on symptoms of the Azzuri, like questionable tactical choices, player selection, or squad formation, we can’t miss the opportunity to understand the actual root causes acting over the Italian team. For a nation that once seemed to have football success down to a science, where are they missing the mark?
The Formula for Football Success
Let‘s deep dive into the analytics of this shocker. I present to you the mathematical model of football success: the variables, the model structure and assumptions, and how the two countries in question measure up.
Variables Considered
- Population (P): the actual countries’ population figures.
- Italy: Approximately 60 million.
- Switzerland: Approximately 8 million.
(Source: World Bank and United Nations Population Division)
2. Football Participation Rate (FPR): percentage of nation partaking in broader football, derived from surveys or reports by national sports federations.
- Italy: Approximately 15%.
- Switzerland: Approximately 10%.
(Source: FIFA Big Count and similar surveys by national football associations)
3. Football Talent Index (FTI): calculated based on the number of professional players and their performance in major leagues.
- Italy: Approximately 85.
- Switzerland: Approximately 70.
(Source: Transfermarkt, CIES Football Observatory)
For more context, it is important to highlight how Italy is ranked 9th country in the world (6th in Europe) as a producer of professional football players while Switzerland does not even appear in the top 20 (the latter being Sweden and accounting for only 57% of Italy’s index).
n°55 — May 2020
4. Football Heritage and Cultural Importance (FHI): a qualitative measure converted to a quantitative index measured through surveys, historical significance, and media coverage.
- Italy: Approximately 90.
- Switzerland: Approximately 60.
(Source: Academic studies on sports culture, historical records, and media analysis)
5. Economic Earnings in Football (EE): measured by the amount of revenue earned on football and communicated by UEFA reports.
- Italy: Approximately 2,346 billion euros.
- Switzerland: Approximately 248 million euros.
(Source: UEFA financial reports)
6. Historical Performance (HP): weighted average of the country’s rankings in previous international tournaments.
- Italy: Approximately 75.
- Switzerland: Approximately 50.
(Source: FIFA rankings, historical data from UEFA and FIFA tournaments)
Model Structure
We’ll use a linear regression model where the dependent variable S (Success in international football) is predicted by the independent variables P, FPR, FTI, FHI, EE, and HP. The general form of the model will be:
S=β0+β1P+β2FPR+β3FTI+β4FHI+β5EE+β6HP+ϵ
Where:
- S: Success in international football (measured by points or rankings in tournaments)
- β0,β1,β2,β3,β4,β5,β6: Coefficients estimated based on historical data
- ϵ: Error term
Assumptions and Limitations
- Assumption of Linearity: We assume that the relationship between the predictors and the success variable is linear and that each variable independently contributes to the outcome, which may not fully capture the interactions between variables.
- Data Availability: Accurate and comprehensive data is required for all variables across different countries and time periods.
- Cultural and Subjective Measures: Variables like FHI are subjective and can vary in accuracy.
Predicting Success
Running the collected data through Python, we see how both countries rank:
- Italy: With a predicted success score of approximately 229.86, Italy shows an undeniable high potential for football success. The high revenue, significant cultural importance, and strong historical performance as well as their heritage index contribute to this score.
- Switzerland: With a predicted success score of approximately 88.28, Switzerland’s football success is relatively low compared to Italy’s. This can be attributed to its significantly smaller population, lower participation rate, and lower revenue.
The Hidden Deeper Layer of Italian Football
The results of the theoretical math are unquestionable: there’s no scenario where Italy wouldn’t have this past match in a bag. It’s what’s driving the country into a frenzy — how could this have happened?
Perhaps the answer lies beyond the tangible metrics and delves into the realm of intangible qualities: the shifts in the Italian value system, and the continuous nurturing of its football youth, for starters.
The Italian Value System
Over recent years, moral and ethical values have been shaken within the country — for instance, it’s only been 8 months since the betting scandal involving a few of the most promising players and national squad members Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Fagioli and Nicolò Zaniolo, and only 3 months since defender Acerbi’s court hearing due to racist comments towards Juan Jesus.
Amongst the turmoil of changing times and re-positionings of a nation’s value system, the ability of individuals to engage in team-play suffers: greedy, survivalist behavior challenges the trust and connection needed to work in unity. Not understanding one’s own value and place in society causes division, protectionism, and isolation.
Talent not Nurtured Enough to Emerge
Cultural traits such as determination and confidence might have also been negatively affected in recent years: it seems not even Italy is trusting its own players for the job. The Serie A sees fewer and fewer local players, with teams choosing to buy international players instead of nurturing national talent — in 2021/2022 Italian teams were made up of only 38% of local players, a significant decrease from the 58% that used to make up the various teams in the nation in 2009/2010 (source).
This is once again counterintuitive given the egregious investments that Italian clubs direct at their youth programs attributable to activities to train, educate, and develop youth players in the club’s territory (see image below).
This shift appears to have seeped into the fabric of Italian football, resulting in a game that often seems to lack belief, is less organized, and missing the creative dynamism that once characterized the Azzurri.
Getting the Mojo Back
Italian football is grappling with issues that statistics can’t capture. The decline in both youth engagement and deployment, issues with inclusion and a sense of belonging for the so-called “Balotelli Generation”, the erosion of disciplined training regimes, and a pervasive sense of complacency have all contributed to a game that lacks the vigor and passion of yesteryears. The once formidable Italian defense, known for its precision and resilience, now often appears disjointed and sluggish. The midfield and attack, historically brimming with flair and creativity, frequently seem uninspired and mechanical.
Moreover, the organizational inefficiencies within Italian football institutions have further exacerbated these issues. From grassroots development to top-tier management, there appears to be a disconnect that hinders the nurturing of raw talent into world-class athletes. The lack of innovative talent-nurturing methods and a reluctance to adapt to modern footballing philosophies have also played a part in this decline.
In conclusion, while Italy’s high predicted success score based on population, participation rate, talent, heritage, and revenue points towards a bright future, the current state of Italian football tells a different tale. The key to reversing this trend lies not just in leveraging the quantifiable advantages but also in addressing the deeper, more subjective issues of culture and work ethics. Only by rekindling the spirit of creativity, discipline, and passion can Italy hope to reclaim its rightful place at the pinnacle of world football.
