A Life-Preserver or a Legitimate Enlargement: The Case for Moldova’s EU Accession
By Piotr Stockfisch and Josh Schlicht
“EU enlargement is a driving force for long-term stability, peace, and prosperity across the continent.”
This is the opening statement of the European Commission’s report from November of last year, which focuses primarily on the progress of reforms and accession negotiations for Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia. These countries, faced with aggression from Russia, applied for membership to the Union at the beginning of 2022. Ukraine and Moldova were granted candidate status in June 2022, and in December 2023 the European Council decided to open negotiations for EU accession with both states.
Since then, Moldova has made rapid progress implementing the majority of EU recommendations, swiftly reforming its judicial system, combating corruption, increasing media freedom and instituting greater human rights protections. The exceptionally rapid pace of this process is driven by the nearby war in Ukraine, which defines current relations between the European Union and this small but strategically significant country. If the EU is serious about its stated goals for securing long-term peace and in order to prevent another conflict, it must share Moldova’s urgency in expediting accession.
The European Union has clearly indicated that its neighborhood policy is a tool used to ensure security in the region. For Moldova, EU membership is currently an existential matter. Moldova is often cited as a potential next target for Russian invasion as the eastern part of Moldova is the territory of Transnistria, a separatist region with Russian sympathies. Despite its de-facto independence since 1992, no United Nations member state recognizes the region’s statehood. However, despite its illegitimate status, internationally established borders have consistently been ignored by Russia, similar to the forcible annexation of territories such as South Ossetia (Georgia), Crimea (Ukraine), and Donbas (Ukraine).
The Transnistria region is significant as it shares similar patterns to these other territories annexed by Russia. It is home to roughly 220,000 Russian citizens, an estimated 1,500 Russian troops, and occupies a significant portion of the Moldova-Ukraine border. The breakaway region has submitted numerous requests for Russian annexation to ‘free’ them from Moldovan aggression. So far, Russia’s Foreign Ministry has been evasive with their response but have ensured that protection of their ‘compatriots’ in Transnistria is a priority. Without an EU security umbrella to deter Russian action, Moldova could be the next site of a Russian ‘special military operation’. The question of Moldova’s potential accession to the EU becomes especially significant in this similar context.
The actions of Moldova’s pro-European President, Maia Sandu, suggest that the state will strive to join the EU by all means, without paying heed to the opposition of the leaders of the rebellious province. Supporting this approach is the fact that Sandu enjoys broad public support: according to a report from February of this year, support for EU accession in Moldova rose from around 55%before the EU’s December decision to open accession talks to 68% afterwards.
The significant amount of Moldovans also oppose Russia’s actions in neighboring Ukraine and see hope for a more stable future, if not in NATO then at least in the EU with its ‘mutual defense’ clause in Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, which opaquely promises defense of member states against outside threats. The European Union already provides significant financial support for Moldova. Such assistance has come in the form of €600 million for Covid recovery, economic development and structural support. An additional €600 million has been slated for 2024–2027 with the expressed goal of countering negative economic impacts arising from the nearby conflict in Ukraine.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldova has become a haven for hundreds of thousands of refugees. However, this influx of displaced people has come at a cost and, despite EU aid, the small state is being pushed to its fiscal limits. To complicate matters further, tens of thousands of Moldovan workers have returned from Russia and Ukraine in the last two years. These employment and capacity issues have been worsened by high inflation and skyrocketing electricity costs due to persistent Russian energy blackmail. Altogether, these compounding factors have strained the Moldovan economy, which only gained 0.7% GDP growth in 2023, despite speculation that it would grow by multi-percentage points.
On top of economic woes, the Moldovan state institutions have been subject to numerous hybrid attacks from Russian-sponsored actors. Moldova’s intelligence agency alleges Russia has been behind escalating cyberattacks, false bomb threats, sponsored protests, as well as mass disinformation and propaganda efforts on social media. In these online campaigns, blame is being placed on the West and the Chisinau government for starting the war in Ukraine and blatant fake news is widely circulated. These nefarious attacks have increased significantly as the accession talks have progressed. In response, the European Union is actively cooperating with Moldova to bolster their cyber-security as it faces an ever-increasing onslaught of hybrid-attacks.
Moldova’s potential accession would be unlikely to provide respite from said attacks but would provide the country and the EU with enormous economic and security benefits. As of the end of 2023, Moldova had fulfilled 6 of the 9 criteria for membership. Among these, rapid improvements to its legal frameworks, success in breaking up organized crime, greater financial transparency, and public administration reforms. There is still progress to be made with judicial reforms, but Moldova’s government is optimistic it can achieve said goals and that EU entry talks could begin before June.
Analysts believe the current situation in the Ukraine has made Russian military intervention in Transnistria impossible to pull off at this juncture. Thus, a window of opportunity has emerged for the EU to integrate Moldova into the Union, and thus into a security framework, without military confrontation. However, as Russia slowly marches forward in the east of Ukraine this window is closing. If a Russian military offensive begins in Moldovan territory in a few years time, it will be too late to formalize Moldovan accession and another vulnerable European country will be subject to the horrors of Russia’s war. If recent history in Georgia and Ukraine can provide insights into Russia’s ambitions in Moldova, then it is probable that Russia is deliberately fostering separatism to deter EU integration until they can formally invade. EU apprehension therefore plays directly into Russia’s hands.
If EU policymakers are serious about Europe’s security, then the time is now to integrate Moldova into the EU. A formal accession would provide deterrence against a Russian invasion, thus securing safety for Moldova’s people and adding a layer of defense for the EU member state Romania. EU security integration and cooperation in Moldova could also open networks for increased assistance for Ukraine’s defense.
Along with strengthening regional security, the accession would provide great economic opportunities for EU citizens and companies, as 2.5 million consumers and workers would be added to the EU’s single market. In the instances of Romanian and Bulgarian accession, domestic standards of living rose significantly in the subsequent years with a majority of their citizens approving of the union.
The Moldovan government believes that similar benefits could be generated by EU membership, and that this could be used to influence Tranistrian residents to reintegrate into Moldovan society. The windfall of benefits from EU accession may be the only way to convince these citizens to reject Russia and rejoin peacefully. For the sake of future European prosperity and security, policymakers must hasten Moldova’s accession into the EU.
Piotr Stockfisch is a Polish Master’s student of European Studies at King’s College London. He has a strong interest in European and climate politics.
Josh Schlicht is an American Master’s student of International Political Economy at King’s College London. Through his Substack The Lookout Report and as a guest writer for Reaction he covers geopolitics and current events.
Both are 2023–24 European Horizons Transatlantic Fellows.
