The Elections Ahead: War or No War?
By Erzsébet Ábrám
2024 is the ultimate election year. With at least 64 countries and the European Union holding elections, roughly 49% of the world’s population are scheduled to go to the ballot box. Political leadership is strongly tied to wars, so what will be the verdict: war or no war?
There have been countless wars fought by humankind throughout history. One might think that today it is a less common issue, as we have better tools to manage conflicts, such as international organizations created specifically to tackle these phenomena. Although it is true that we have fewer wars and victims of it compared to the last century, data shows that in 2024 39 countries still face armed conflict. Based on figures from Our World in Data, since 1800 more than 37 million people have died worldwide actively fighting on front lines. This figure would significantly increase if it accounted for civilian casualties caused by combat, hunger and disease stemming from these confrontations, and fatalities in smaller conflicts not classified as wars. Additionally, wars have devastating effects beyond just death tolls, including heightened insecurity, reduced living conditions, environmental destruction, and — when involving states with nuclear capabilities — pose a potentially existential risk to humanity.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s definition of war is the most commonly used by researchers and policymakers, which describes war as “a state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year.” The number of fatalities include the combatants killed in action and the civilians who lost their lives as a result of military action.
Measuring armed conflicts and subsequent deaths is not an easy task, but data suggests fewer people have died due to armed conflict in the last two decades than in most years of the 20th century. During the First and Second World Wars, and the immediate years after, several million people died each year due to war. Since 1950, the number of deaths has fallen significantly, with a peak in the 1970s of 300,000 fatalities and again in the 1980s of 250,000 fatalities. We witnessed a third peak in 2022, with 200,000 deaths.
What Causes War?
Numerous factors can trigger conflicts between states or within them, including economic interests, territorial ambitions, religious differences, nationalist sentiments, civil unrest, and political upheavals. States enduring prolonged conflicts may transform themselves into war-ravaged areas, necessitating extensive efforts over many years to reconstruct their infrastructure, economy, and societal systems. Frequently, leaders play a pivotal role in inciting conflicts by initiating territorial disputes, seeking to exploit foreign resources, or imposing authoritarian rule.
Who Benefits from Wars?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s biggest terrestrial armed conflict in decades, proved that “nothing invigorates the business of war like a war”, in the words of Nabih Bulos. Based on his article in the Los Angeles Times, arms dealers and manufacturers are the primary beneficiaries of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The International Defense Exhibition and Conference (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi demonstrates the gains of these actors; being the largest in its 30-year history, attracting 1,350 companies, 350 delegations, and approximately 130,000 attendees from 65 countries. The conflict has fueled a surge in the global arms trade, leading to increased demand for military equipment not only in Russia and Ukraine, but also worldwide as states prepare for potential confrontations. For example, Asia, Japan, and Korea have boosted their military spending in reaction to China; while in Europe, the German government also pledged to spend $100 billion on reequipping its armed forces. The war has reshaped relationships within the weapons industry, altered the dynamics of arms sales, and influenced the preferences of customers in the global market, ultimately benefiting arms dealers and manufacturers amidst the ongoing conflict.
Additionally, countries and companies in the energy business, such as those in the Middle East and Africa, have seen financial gains due to the surge in oil and natural gas prices resulting from the war. Other beneficiaries include states such as the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Venezuela, who have capitalized on various aspects of the conflict to advance their economic interests and geopolitical positions.
Who Suffers the Most?
Clearly the citizens of war-torn countries suffer the most directly. In the case of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine and its people have faced immense human and economic costs as a result of the conflict. The war has led to significant destruction of infrastructure, loss of life, displacement of millions of Ukrainians, and a humanitarian crisis with severe consequences that include casualties among civilians, psychological trauma, and a surge in human trafficking. Ukraine has suffered substantial physical and financial losses, with damage to businesses, healthcare institutions, educational facilities, and residential buildings amounting to billions of dollars.
Russia has also faced significant economic consequences, military losses, and international isolation as a result of the conflict. The war may have destroyed much of Ukraine, but the unprecedented sanctions and economic isolation put Russia in a difficult position economically. During the first year of the war, Russia’s economy declined by 2.1% according to the International Monetary Fund. Since then, mostly thanks to China, Russia’s economy has grown again. In total, the US Treasury estimates that the country’s economic growth could have been around 5% higher over the last two years if not for the impact of the war. The current situation also generated a decline in Russia’s international relations with most of the Western world. Furthermore, Russia’s army has suffered substantial casualties, with as many as 15,000 soldiers lost in just a month. Additionally, many of those who could afford it have left the country, further impacting Russia’s human capital.
Why Is This Issue Relevant Now More Than Ever?
As mentioned above, 49% of the world’s population face elections this year. Choosing our leaders is one of the most serious decisions that we make during our lives. They decide on economic, political, and social issues that affect most people and therefore society as a whole, including whether or not a state decides to go to war. Given that wars are to a large extent tied to political leadership, we can only hope to see more encouraging data on armed conflicts in the coming years.
Looking at the big picture, wars do much more harm than good. While research has demonstrated that in certain scenarios they can have some ‘positive’ impact, such as leading to stronger social cohesion or international trade and cooperation, there are ways to achieve such socio-economic results that take fewer lives and generate less suffering. Sun Tzu writes in the The Art of War: “The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.” The next generation of leaders should follow these wise words.
Erzsébet Ábrám is a 2023–24 European Horizons Transatlantic Fellow pursuing a Bachelor’s in Psychology at ELTE PPK and studying Economics at MCC. Keen to understand how the world functions, Erzsébet has a strong interest in public policy and is actively seeking opportunities to help individuals and society.
