Transatlantic Elections and the Rise of the Right
By Isabelle Ní Sheachnasaí, Róisín Northcote, and Marita Moran
The last decade has been a culturally and politically turbulent period across the globe. With shifting political ideologies, the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the tragic ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the world has experienced an era of instability that has impacted all areas of life. Governments around the world have struggled to deal with these issues, and this precarious current socio-political climate will likely be further shaken later this year by the EU and US elections.
Taking place in June and November respectively, these two elections have not coincided within the same calendar year since 2004. Thus, major simultaneous leadership changes on both sides of the transatlantic relationship may occur for the first time in two decades. This shift in authority would always naturally provoke some disturbance, with a period of adaptation to the new workings within institutions on both sides of the Atlantic. However, today, with social uncertainty on the rise and the shift of the global political atmosphere towards the right, the results of these elections could go so far as to mean a significant degradation of the EU-US bond.
Forecasting the Future: Trump or Biden for the next President of the United States?
November 2024 will be a pivotal month for US politics, following a tense year of debate and increasing polarisation between the Democratic and Republican parties. The presidential caucuses have been underway since January of this year and Biden and Trump have been projected to represent their respective parties.The general consensus regarding the upcoming competition is that it appears to be less of a popularity contest and more of an election in which the winner will be chosen on the basis of being the ‘lesser of two evils’. Biden’s term has been defined by his handling of geopolitical turmoil and global uncertainty, whereas Trump’s presidency was marked by his “personality-driven, divisive and combative politics”.
The potential for a second term for Trump is highly viable. It is therefore important to analyse the factors that have enabled a candidate such as Trump to thrive within American society. Clearly, the country is undergoing a period of crisis, evident in citizens’ willingness to overlook Trump’s 91 felonies and the estimated 30,573 “false or misleading claims’’ he made during his four-year tenure. America has grappled with “high prices and high interest rates, concerns about divisions and morality, a deep scepticism about the justice system and the news media”. According to NBC news, Trump currently holds a 5 point lead against Biden among registered voters (47%-42%) in a hypothetical election matchup. Moreover, he has collected more than double the funding of any other candidate in the GOP primary, and is undoubtedly unwilling to make the same mistakes that withheld him from his consecutive term in 2020.
Considering these statistics, one must ask: what would Trump’s new America look like and how might it fundamentally alter transatlantic relations? Trump’s electoral plan, “Agenda 47”, outlines the proposals he would aim to implement during a second term regardless of liberal bureaucracy. Already, such proposals have been fuelled by controversy. For example, Trump is eyeing investment in flying cars and the building of “freedom cities” on empty federal land, where Americans can live and work without burdensome regulations. His plans also include the relocation of homeless people in the US out of their local areas to designated camps until their problems have been identified, and the termination of automatic citizenship for the children of illegal migrants born in the US. Internationally, one of the more worrying aspects of his potential win is his possible withdrawal of the US from NATO, supported by the fact that he has already withdrawn his official support for Ukraine.
Undoubtedly, this presidential election comes at a tumultuous time for American politics. The implications of the result will affect Europe and the rest of the world. Predictions of Trump winning the election reflect a more universal shift toward right-wing extremism; a shift that is already taking place across Europe, in countries such as Hungary and Poland.
A Shift Towards Conservative Politics on the European Stage
Across the Atlantic, the European Union is embarking on its own electoral journey, as citizens from member states will cast their votes in June to shape the composition of the European Parliament. Against a backdrop of rising nationalism, economic disparities, and geopolitical challenges, the EU elections assume heightened significance, underscoring the collective endeavour of European states to forge a path forward amid adversity.
The European Parliament is expected to reflect the diversity of voices and interests across the continent, setting the stage for constructive dialogue, collaboration, and consensus-building to address the myriad of challenges confronting the EU. However, in such a polarised environment, a harmonious outcome seems virtually impossible. Although the majority of campaign rhetoric echoes debates over the future of European integration, the management of migration flows, and the role of the EU in a rapidly evolving world order, parties are not in accordance on how these issues should be dealt with.
In a speech given at Trinity College in March 2024, Vice President of the European Parliament Evelyn Regner put it plainly when she stated that “more and more countries are moving toward the right”. It is widely anticipated that far-right parties, such as Jordan Bardella’s National Rally in France and Matteo Salvini’s League in Italy, will gain traction in the June election. They have both promised to strengthen the bloc’s stance on immigration while advocating for a relaxation of climate policies. According to the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Eurosceptic populist parties are poised to lead the polls in nine member states and secure second or third place in nine others across the EU. This surge in far-right influence extends to national governments also, with parties including Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands and the National Rally in France gaining increasing authority. The ECFR anticipates that the European Conservatives and Reformists and the radical right-wing Identity and Democracy groups will collectively hold 25% of MEPs, surpassing both the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) in combined seats for the first time. The prospect of such results raises interesting questions, as European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness commented on RTE, the European Parliament is different to a national one: “It’s not a government and an opposition, so rather than going into work trying to attack the government, you go in to work trying to see who do I agree with to get things done.” With such extreme right-wing parties holding an extensive number of seats in the Parliament, “you get a very fragmented decision-making process […] the holding of the centre is important to get work done.”
Another source of contention among candidates is the topic of trade. The EU was founded on the idea that economic integration prevents war. Yet, recent years have seen increasing tensions over trade and economic integration in Europe. These concerns were somewhat hidden during the previous Commission but were brought to light by failed US-EU free trade negotiations and trade conflicts during President Trump’s period in office. This has sensitised European politicians to the need to protect the economy and workers from external threats. The EU’s challenge now is to convey the importance of trade and economic integration to its citizens, while addressing shifting dynamics in the US and China. Collaboration with allies is crucial to reinforce the multilateral trading order and uphold the relevance of the World Trade Organisation. Yet in light of the perceivable outcome of the upcoming elections, it seems evident that this will not be a smooth process.
Overall, this approaching transition period threatens to highlight a major shift towards the right in transatlantic affairs. In the case of Donald Trump’s succession as leader of the United States, both the US and Europe will face the effects of his presidency. As the US is the primary aid partner of Ukraine, Trump’s desired withdrawal of support will result in worsening the humanitarian crisis facing the country. His increasingly strong alliances with fellow right-wing European leaders, such as Viktor Orbán and Matteo Salvini, also reveal his desire to grasp a potential foothold in Europe; one that will be especially significant should he secure a victory in the polls in November. On the European front, the pending EU elections also highlight a potential move towards more conservative policies. This combined move towards the right will prove problematic in all sectors, economic, social, and environmental. Whilst the outcome currently remains uncertain, the projections do not provide cause for optimism.
Isabelle Ní Sheachnasaí, Marita Moran, and Róisín Northcote are all 2023–24 European Horizons Transatlantic Fellows and undergraduate students pursuing Bachelor’s in European Studies at Trinity College Dublin.
Isabelle’s interests revolve around the global political climate and its impact on the environment, particularly focusing on sustainable development.
Marita is driven by a passion for creating positive change, concentrating on issues of global inequality, environmental sustainability, and minority rights.
Róisín is deeply interested in international relations and advocates for the indispensable role of languages in diplomacy and negotiation.
