Eurovision 2014: København

Eurovision In Numbers & some early predictions

The 59th Eurovision Song Contest is a first for me in that København is the first I will attend. Over the past five/six years my fanboy fanaticism has steadily grown, this is a pilgramage that has long been in the making.

Over the next few days you can follow my København exploits via my About Me page. I’ll be posting my thoughts and predictions for SF1, SF2 and the final here on Medium. Inevitably this involves predictions so I will also review how I did afterwards. Before I get to any predictions I’ll begin by looking at the 2014 in more detail, seeing how it compares to what has gone in the past.

København is different compared to the last few contests in that there are a wide range of good songs without a runaway favourite. Hopefully this will result in a results section of the show that will be the closest in a number of years; it has been 11 years since Riga when the contest was decided with the final vote, with only three points between the top three songs.

It’s a long time since the result was decided in the last vote, in Riga, 2003

This year sees 37 acts at the contest (compared to 39 last year). There are the same number of female artists, duets and group/collaborations (16, 4 and 9 respectively [note: I classified Austria as a female artist]), with the reduction of 2 acts being met by the 8 male artists (compared to 10 last year).

• Solo Female (16): Albania, Austria, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Israel, Italy, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova, Portugal, San Marino, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Kingdom (2013: 16);
• Solo Male (8): Armenia, Belarus, Belgium, Denmark, Hungary, Montenegro, Norway, Switzerland (2013: 10);
• Groups/Collaborations (9) : Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Malta (2013: 4).
• Duets (4): Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Russia (2013: 4)

Countries chose their songs by the following methods:

• National Final Winners (24): Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine (2013: 23);
• Internal Selections (11): Armenia, Austria, Georgia, Italy, (FYR) Macedonia, Montenegro, Netherlands, Poland, Russia, San Marino, United Kingdom (2013: 12);
• Internal Artist Selection, Public Song Choice (1): Israel (2013: 4);
• Internal Song Selection, Public Artist Choice (1): Azerbaijan (2013: 0).

With how the show compares to the past, now here are some of my initial predictions of what to expect from the contest:

San Marino will fail to qualify: History would appear to be on Valentina Monetta’s side given the previous three acts who have each sang at Eurovision at three consecutive contests have all won once (Lys Assia 1956, 1957, 1958; Corry Brokken, 1956, 1957, 1958; Udo Jürgens 1964; 1965; 1966) but history is all that is on her side. Compared to her previous two attempts, Maybe is slower and more forgettable — risky when there is an ocean of ballads at the contest this year. Valentina has become a firm fan favourite with her perseverance but it is telling that the fans are talking about Valentina and not her song. If The Social Network Song and Crisalide (Vola) didn’t manage to qualify to the final, Maybe certainly will not.

Valentina Monetta drawing a line in the sand in her video for Maybe

Greece will finish in the top 5: This song is a contemporary pop song, which is impossible not to be swept away with. Given the huge impact the running order has on the chances of winning (its ten years since a country has won from the first half of the contest), I’ll refrain on more final predictions until the final running draw is finalised (but with a good draw we are looking at Athens 2015).

Freaky Fortune feat. Riskykidd (L2R: Shane Schuller (Riskykidd), Nick Raptakis, Theofilos Pouzbouris)

Russia & Ukraine will exchange points for two reasons:

1. The songs from both countries whilst being a pair of hot messes are non insulting and of wide enough appeal to for the region to vote on it, without even considering the political situation;
2. As we keep hearing, there are a significant number of Russian speakers in Ukraine who will vote for motherland, the same reason why you have to go back to 2002 for the last time Germany didn't award Turkey 8, 10 or 12 points when both were in a final [they didn't give Turkey any points bizarrely]).

Tolmachevy Sisters representing Russia.

Azerbaijan will have their worst result to date: 2014 has seen many ballads entered, and Azerbaijan will find it hard to stand out. Whilst the song is beautiful, it doesn't have that melodic spark to make it memorable for viewers to vote for it. I think Azerbaijan will finish lower than eighth place, their lowest ever finishing entry — keep in mind other countries would be envious of such a fine recent history in the contest.

Italy will have their lowest result since their return to the Eurovision fold to date: Something about the song doesn't seem to connect through the camera and prevents the song being memorable. I think this will finish outside of the top ten and will result in Italy’s worst result since returning to Eurovision in 2011.

So those are my thoughts on Eurovision 2014. You can follow how I get on visiting København via my About Me page, I’ll write up more detailed predictions of the two semis and the final closer to the events.

I trust you’re as excited as I am (if you’ve read this far).