A Sort of Scenario for 2016
Assuming we want to win and achieve some good as a result.
Let Trump coast to the GOP nomination. He is doing an excellent job of both hobbling the GOP and ensuring that he cannot win a general election unless the Democrats woefully screw up.
To ensure against this, accept the premise that no Democrat can hope to accomplish a thing unless Democrats control BOTH Houses of Congress.
Make no mistake. It is likely that, to complete this scenario, Hillary will coast into the White House. She can only be a great president if she can be magnanimous. She can only do that if the GOP is thoroughly and decisively beaten in the Senate and the House.
So the true win for the nonce is A Clinton-Trump contest that results in a landslide for the Democrats.
A Sanders win will ensure defeat even if Bernie were to win the White House. He would suffer more than Obama because he will never get the landslide he wants. He would be faced by at least one or both Houses left GOP-controlled.
How likely is my scenario?
Both Donald and Hillary are odds on favorites to carry the banners of the two parties.
My scenario assumes that the David DeGraw fantasy of Bernie running third party is roundly rejected as Nader on steroids.
Only if Trump’s outrages continue and get worse are we likely to see a truly disastrous election day across the boards for the GOP. But I would say the odds of that are pretty good.
The biggest problem is the House. The House must either flip or suffer enough loss to make the GOP edge razor-thin. We need to work on the assumption that we can flip red states where Trump offensiveness brings out the offended in droves.
Will this little missive have any effect. I am certain it will have none at all. However if what it says makes sense, it will at least be on record as an anticipation had a certain salience.
