Confirmation bias and Trump’s inauguration crowd
Trump’s popularity relies on his ability to get people to distrust the media. He tells his supporters that they can only trust what he says (“believe me”) and what they can see for themselves. In doing so, he preys upon their confirmation bias to pay attention to only what fits and supports their existing worldview.
Confirmation bias (along with hubris, insecurity, and a desire to distract from his executive action agenda) is likely driving the current Trump versus media fight about the size of his inauguration crowds. Here’s the image the mainstream media has been showing:
And here’s what Trump saw:
From Trump’s literal point of view, his inauguration crowd was yuge. If anything, it looks a little bigger than Obama’s. By his reasoning, there’s no way those overhead shots are accurate because he saw with his own eyes how many people were at his inauguration. Thus the mainstream media is lying to manipulate the public into thinking Trump is less popular.
Trump supporters are posting this super hi-res zoomable inauguration speech photo from CNN as definitive proof that the media lies. See for yourself! The crowd goes all the way down to the Washington Monument:
But if you (choose to) look more closely, you can see that there’s plenty of visible empty space as well, and likely lots of empty space and regions where the crowds thin out that aren’t so readily visible:
Same image, two different interpretations. Trump-supporters are motivated to focus on the people to confirm their belief that the media lies. Trump-detractors are motivated to focus on the emptiness to confirm their belief that Trump is unpopular.
