Cubs Trade Deadline and Offseason
A Breakdown of the Chicago Cubs’ Future Decisions To Come
It’s no surprise that the Chicago Cubs are suddenly overwhelmed with an influx of young talent after hiring Theo Epstein in 2011. When he was hired as the Red Sox’ GM in 2002, he became the youngest in Major League Baseball history. Since then, he has climbed to a status many would call a Baseball Jesus of sorts.
Manager Joe Maddon, a player favorite in the dugout and the clubhouse, has been in no means conservative or static in his day to day lineup decisions. Based on 2016, it looks like only first baseman Anthony Rizzo and right fielder Jason Heyward (on a 8 yr./$180 million contract) have truly locked in positions in the field. Even young stud, Kris Bryant has not shown to have fully claimed a regular third base position, as he has played in seven different spots (including DH) over the course of the 2015 and 2016 seasons.
But Kris Bryant isn’t the only Cub scrambling to find an everyday role in the ballclub.
Here follows a breakdown of the Cubs’ depth and situation position by position.
Catcher
Though Chicago may be paying way too much at $14 million/year for Miguel Montero currently hitting under .200 and who finished last season at .248, he has certainly maintained a notable position in clubhouse dynamics. His iconic Twitter slogan #WeAreGood stole the hearts of fans and his teammates without much on-field performance to back it up last season. However, his disappointing .095 postseason batting average simply does not live up to the caliber of offense the Cubs will need to display come this October in order to make up for pitching struggles in both their starting rotation and bullpen.
24 year old Willson Contreras, who made his Major League debut on June 17, burst onto the scene in Chicago at the time he was needed most. Hitting .291 with five homers, Contreras has been nothing short of impressive thus far .
He has adjusted to the young team as well as any other player and has even already been involved in his first tussle with an opposing player, well-respected Braves veteran Jeff Francoeur. This actually drew praise from Manager Joe Maddon who commented, “It’s not often you’re going to see a rookie stand his ground as well as he did, but it’s not surprising”.
Lastly, we have ‘Grandpa’ David Ross. Cubs fans were absolutely ecstatic to have acquired Jon Lester from Boston before the 2015 season, but didn’t even realize the impact his personal catcher who came with him in the trade would have on Chicago (for only $5 million over two seasons). Well above the 28 year old team average, David Ross quickly became a prominent leadership figure on the team and has played a crucial part in developing young Chicago pitchers and catchers alike, including Contreras. Speculative talks have even begun concerning a coaching career for Ross in Chicago under Maddon sometime in the near future following his retirement at the end of this season.
So at catcher, the real problem lies with Miguel Montero. Unfortunately, there isn’t much to do with him but wait out his contract.The way things are playing out right now, Willson Contreras will undoubtedly be the everyday starter next season and has slowly already started to take that role. He is currently making the league minimum, and probably won’t be making much more than that next season either.
Then, there is his backup. He will be sucking out his final $14 million next season.
He will remain a thumb in the side of Cubs’ financial flexibility this offseason on their quest to find pitching and finalize a more regular lineup. He was an All-Star in Arizona before Chicago picked up his contract in 2015, but has shown zero evidence since then of being even remotely the same player he was.
First Base
Before Wednesday, there was some speculation over how the Cubs would use AAA Iowa star Dan Vogelbach (.316 BA, 16 HRs)but the front office handled that quite appropriately in the four person trade with the Mariners. Chicago acquired left-handed reliever Mike Montgomery who has pitched a 2.34 ERA this season as well as minor league pitcher Jordan Pries while Dan Vogelbach packed his bags for Seattle with AA right hander Paul Blackburn.
This trade was a steal for both teams. To hang onto Vogelbach would not only be a waste of time and space in the Chicago Cubs’ organization but would most likely also hinder Vogelbach’s ability to advance in his career with Anthony Rizzo ahead of him in Chicago.
Rizzo has become one of the major faces in the Cubs organizations.
At 26 years old, Rizzo is on his fourth year of his seven year/$41 million contract with options through 2021. He is a three-time All-Star, has his own cereal, and is even a cancer survivor.
Currently hitting .292 with 24 homeruns and 71 RBIs, and in the running for National League MVP, he shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. He will play a crucial part in attempting to end the Cubs’ 70 year long World Series bid drought.
Second Base
It was assumed that when the Cubs agreed to a four year deal with Ben Zobrist in December, second base would be his.
And perhaps it is.
But this hasn’t stopped Maddon from being Joe. He has used every opportunity he can to develop Javier Baez, Tommy LaStella, and even Kris Bryant on the right side of the infield. This is pretty smart when considering the future of the team but how realistic is it that the Cubs will be able to hold onto all these guys past 2019 when Zobrist’s contract is up?
It’s actually very possible.
Based on the way Maddon has used Bryant so far this season, one could make the assertion that he has taken up a bit of a utility role for the team. However as Bryant continues to dominate at the plate, it is expected he is going to want to get more established in one position further into his career, most likely third base.
So, as Zobrist’s contract winds down in the next couple of years, expect to see Baez make the transformation into an everyday second baseman, Kris Bryant start to fill his role as third baseman, and Tommy LaStella become the utility man, or the Mark DeRosa of today for comparison.
Don’t forget about Zobrist, though! He was hot the better part of the first half of the season, hitting over .300 before being elected to the All Star game. Lately he has slumped with a .170 average in the past 30 games, but this skid shouldn’t last much longer. Overall, he has proved an ultra-beneficial investment for the Cubs at a fair price of $10–16 million per year through 2019.
However Theo Epstein looks to handle Baez and LaStella, whether that is through eventually trading them or keeping them around, their worth is grossly underestimated.
Third Base
Theo Epstein said told Chicago Tribune reporter Mark Gonzales last week, “I’ve always said I don’t believe in true untouchables. But there are guys who we believe in so much and believe in as a part of our core and our identity that it would be impracticable to envision a deal”.
Kris Bryant is without a doubt one of these guys. He has even been compared to a young Alex Rodriguez. But who knows? The Mariners allowed him to leave and then the Rangers soon traded him away to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano. It’s baseball. Anything can happen.
But it’s unlikely. It’s not only about his run production or flexibility in the field, but also the chemistry he brings to the team. The culture built up around him in Wrigleyville is the type of hype that has Cubs fans so in love with this team and hopeful for the future.
Bryant will most likely be signing a contract to cut into the Cubs’ bank account a little bit next season, but there has been no clear indication from him on the length of a contract that would interest him. Based on the brotherhood so evidently built up on this young team, it can’t be expected that he is eager to get away from Chicago any time soon as he is also planning to marry his fiancé Jessica Delp.
Bryant has been the predominant starter at third base this year with Baez and LaStella alternating in. If things turn out, as outlined with Baez eventually starting at second, not much will change on the other side of the infield.
Shortstop
Addison Russell has shut down all but nine balls hit to him in the hole this year. With a fielding percentage of .972, he is one of the best fielding players in baseball and exemplifies what the Cubs want and need in a shortstop in the future. Plus, how appropriate is it that Russell’s first name is Addison?
The heart of this team’s chemistry lives in the infield, with Bryant at third, Rizzo at first, and Russell at shortstop. Salaries and contracts aside, these are your true untouchables. These are the guys who create the current atmosphere at Wrigley Field.
Yes, the Cubs must get Russell a comfortable contract next year as well.
It’s also very crucial that Joe Maddon continues to get Javier Baez innings at shortstop. In 90 innings there this year, he has zero errors. Though everyone would hate to see it, I think Addison Russell would be the first to go of the untouchables. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cubs trade Addison Russell for another starting pitcher, maybe a lefty, this offseason. Javier Baez could be easily transformed into a full-time shortstop with his defensive reliability and offensive numbers that are so much better than that of Russell’s (.286 AVG to .247).
Russell is an untouchable in terms of his value to the team, but in all reality is easily replaceable.
Outfield
This is where things get interesting. The Cubs currently have six players well over-qualified to start in one of three outfield positions next season. These are as follows: Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Chris Coghlan, and Matt Sczur.
So let’s sort through all of these
Jason Heyward
Cubs fans are already having premature flashbacks to Alfonso Soriano’s 8 year/$136 million contract, except this time it’s $180 million. He had two “acceptable” years in 2007 and 2008, then dropped off the edge of the Earth. He was a roadblock to any hopes of ending the curse until he was traded to the Yankees during the 2013 season.
Heyward isn’t even a season in and already has people doubting him (including myself). It seems a bit out of character for Theo Epstein to be offering a one time All Star (2010) whom is frankly quite inconsistent, this large of a contract. He is currently hitting only .234 with an embarrassing four homeruns. This is absolutely pitiful when you consider the $17.5 million he is making this season (and $24.5 million next season). $108,000 per game paid by the hard earned money of loyal Cubs enduring 107 years of misery, just to lay an egg.
It goes without saying, Jason Heyward has right field locked down through 2023 by default.
“That’s a bold strategy, Cotton. Let’s see if it pays off.”
Dexter Fowler
Dex, who has played 20 games less than Heyward due to a right hamstring strain has the same amount of RBIs (28) and three more homeruns (7) with a .290 AVG before getting hurt on June 18th. He is currently on his rehab assignment in AAA Iowa, and is expected to return any day now.
He wasn’t supposed to return to the Cubs this season with rumors swirling he was headed for Baltimore, but Epstein surprised the team in Spring Training with a one year contract with options for next year. The fans in Chicago love him, and they love his daughter Naya who stole the hearts of many early in the season when she was caught on video trying to hug her daddy through the television screen.
Cubs fans are going to be on the edge of their seats this offseason watching to see what Fowler’s decisions for next year will be. The front office will also be hoping he makes his decisions in a timely manner, as other decisions concerning the other outfielders all depend on whether Dexter Fowler will stay in the Friendly Confines to patrol center field.
Kyle Schwarber
Chicago took a devastating loss on April 7 after 23 year old Kyle Schwarber tore both his ACL and LCL in his left knee. He displayed an immense amount of power with 16 homeruns in 69 regular season games, and five homeruns in the 2015 postseason where he batted .333.
Rumors have been swirling for a few weeks that the Cubs are in possible trade negotiations with the New York Yankees concerning Schwarber. Critics claim he is meant to be a DH on an American League team and apparently the Yankees are willing to offer hard-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman.
The Cubs are indeed in great need of relief, a closer, in particular. However, with Chapman’s off the field domestic violence allegations in December, the Cubs may not be the team for him.
Jorge Soler
After landing on the disabled list in early June for a hamstring strain, it gave Albert Almora the chance to get his shot in the Big Leagues and flaunt his skills. It looks like he did a bit too good, because Soler is still in the minors.
This is a real example of how having all these great outfielders is hurting the players’ individual careers, and you wonder how many are going to stick around next year for the sake of winning a pennant.
Last year, he hit .262 and was hitting .223 before going down this year. It may not be in the Cubs’ best interest to keep him around anyway. His contract lasts through 2020, but he is a guy that could shine on a team not packed with stars like the Cubs. He is another example of someone the Cubs could go get relief pitching with.
Chris Coghlan
So, the Cubs traded away Coghlan last year for right hander, Aaron Brooks. Then this year, they brought him back to Chicago, sending second baseman Arismendy Alcantra to Oakland. As of right now, it looks like the Cubs won in that trade performance-wise, but not by much.
It wasn’t a deal that made much sense. The Cubs seemed to recognize they had no need for a second baseman, but didn’t recognize that an outfielder isn’t a necessity either. In fact, there really wasn’t much room for another one.
Coghlan’s contract will expire at the end of the season, not expected to be seen in a Cubs uniform again.
Matt Szcur
Szcur is producing tremendous numbers and has proved very useful to the Cubs this year, specifically in pinch-hit situations.
He lost his rookie status at the end of last season and is currently being paid close to minimum. When he isn’t pitch hitting, he mostly plays left field.
For the Cubs to sign him again would be a conservative decision, and they should act on it. He has a bright future ahead of him.
Pitching
After finishing 22–6 and winning the Cy Young, Jake Arietta has not displayed the dominance and filling the ace role as was expected. His curveball that was thought unhittable is now being worked around. It generally starts in the strike zone and drops out by the time it crosses the plate, so hitters this year simply are not swinging.
Someone who has unexpectedly though risen in the Cubs’ rotation is their #5 guy, Kyle Hendricks. He leads the team in ERA in which he has a 0.72 ERA in his last seven games.
At this rate, it may be in the Cubs’ best interest to move Hendricks up to the fourth spot behind Arietta, Lester, and Lackey. They could move Hammel to the bullpen, and acquire a good left-handed pitcher by trading someone like Coghlan and/or Soler.
The Cubs currently have the 15th best bullpen in the Majors which will not cut it against teams like the Nationals (#1) and the Mets(#5) in October. They specifically are in need of a closer as they only have 17 saves this season.
Overall, I wouldn’t expect any big changes in the next week before the trade deadline. This winter though should be very interesting in Chicago. While it is unlikely that someone like Addison Russell would be traded, it is possible. They truly are stacked, and keeping all these players happy as they become veterans will not be an easy task for Maddon.
