Market Outlook #3 嘉库市场展望 #3
Latest market trends, highlights and news 最新市场趋势，亮点和新闻
The effect of COVID-19 pandemic affects almost everyone around the world. While the COVID-19 crisis impacts individuals, it also profoundly affects many industries. More than a week after the announcement by the World Health Organisation that Covid-19 is characterised as a global pandemic, many global investors question whether the market downturn signals a global recession, and what are the impacts to the global economy if the virus continues to spread worldwide. Other than tourism, travel, and manufacturing suffering during this gloomy period, cryptocurrency assets also crashed due to the pandemic as well.
Governments announced liquidity injections & slashed interest rates in a futile attempt to keep cash markets afloat.
The price of BTC dropped aggressively — in correlation with the stock market — and the majority of replacement coins drops further. While some crypto assets recently have managed to recover some of their losses, the drop in asset prices affects almost 80% of the cryptocurrency in the market. The debate now is about how closely Bitcoin’s price performance is tied to the U.S. stock market. The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has now reached a two-year high and this may be a bearish sign for the crypto markets. Historical data shows that such a high correlation is often accompanied by major downturns in BTC’s value. However, not all investors agree about this. Since the BTC lows of $3,775 in March, BTC has rallied by about 77%. Compare that with the S&P 500, which has fallen by 7.4%, and the Dow Jones, which is off by about 10% over the same period.
Countries around the world are now trying to solve and support individuals who are affected by unemployment due to coronavirus and how to manage a healthy economy. In the United States of America, one Democratic representative in Congress has proposed giving $2,000 a month to every adult — and $1,000 to every child. Other nations are similarly exploring radical measures, with the United Kingdom recently announcing plans to pay 80% of the wages of workers on furlough. Not all are liking this and has been taken aback by these ideas due to the possibility of massive inflation — and would even benefit cryptocurrency investors as Bitcoin will arise as the favourable option by the mass.
While bitcoin may be well-positioned to benefit from central bank cash injections and the zero-interest rates environment, the same cannot be said for smaller cryptocurrency projects.
Since the ICO/IEO market is no longer deem realistic, blockchain startups are now primarily looking towards venture capitalists to raise funds. However, due to the coronavirus and the uncertainty of the economy it has become more challenging for blockchain projects in the last few weeks.
The use of stablecoins has increased over the last few weeks. Especially dollar-backed digital currencies have seen an influx of funds as traders and investors moved funds into stable assets when risky assets collapsed. The two leading dollar-backed stablecoins — Tether USD (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) — have seen substantial inflows of trading volume during the market crash.
Regardless of the current financial climate, investors who have cryptocurrencies in their portfolio will be interested to see how cryptocurrency assets will continue responding to this unfolding crisis.
Investors who bought cryptocurrencies as a hedge against the traditional market were affected when their crypto assets were not spared from the market crash. Bitcoin dipped a whopping 25% a day after the WHO declaration of a global pandemic and altcoins suffered a heavier crash.
While fiat and crypto are two different types of assets, investors are opting for cryptocurrencies for more diversification, and also on the belief that crypto will deliver a much more significant return in the future. However, it is also interesting to note how cryptocurrencies will compare with historical investments of gold and silver for mass-market adoption.
Crypto is still looking POSITIVE
Given the current unfavorable economy worldwide, it is not surprising to see a cryptocurrency market crash. However, cryptocurrency is still looking optimistic in the long run. Governments are actively introducing corresponding fiscal policies to respond to the situation, which will have positive impacts on the crypto market.
Recently, the Supreme Court of India has turnover the previous ban on financial institutions from providing banking services to cryptocurrency companies from the Reserve Bank of India. In addition, traditional industries are also actively exploring the possibilities of blockchain. Therefore, the blockchain’s financial inclusion and even mass adoption are still worth looking forward to.
***Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice and should not form the basis of any financial investment decisions nor be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any good or product. Trading cryptocurrency is complex and comes with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you and take the time to learn how trading works and decide how much money you are prepared to risk.
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新冠病毒-19大流行的影响几乎影响了全世界的每个人。尽管新冠病毒-19危机影响着个人，但也深刻影响了许多行业。在世界卫生组织宣布新冠病毒-19被认为是全球大流行的一个多星期后，许多全球投资者质疑市场低迷是否预示着全球经济衰退，如果病毒继续恶化，将对全球经济产生什么影响？遍布全球。除了在这个令人沮丧的时期遭受的旅游，旅行和制造业苦难之外，加密货币资产也因大流行而崩溃。
各国政府宣布注入流动性并削减利率，这是徒劳无功的尝试，以保持现金市场的正常运转。
BTC的价格大幅下跌-与股票市场相关-大多数替代币进一步下跌。尽管一些加密资产最近已设法弥补了部分损失，但资产价格下跌影响了市场上近80％的加密货币。现在的辩论是关于比特币的价格表现与美国股市有多紧密的联系。 BTC与标普500指数之间的相关性目前已达到两年来的高点，这可能是加密市场的看跌信号。历史数据显示，如此高的相关性通常伴随着BTC价值的大幅下滑。但是，并非所有投资者都对此表示赞同。自3月份BTC的低点3,775美元以来，BTC已经上涨了约77％。与之相比，标普500指数下跌7.4％，道琼斯指数同期下跌约10％。现在，世界各地的国家都在试图解决和支持因冠状病毒以及如何管理健康的经济而受到失业影响的人。在美国，一位国会民主党代表提议每月给每个成年人2000美元，给每个孩子1,000美元。其他国家也正在探索采取激进措施，英国最近宣布了计划，在休假期间支付工人工资的80％。并非所有人都喜欢这一点，并且由于可能发生大规模通货膨胀，这些想法将使加密货币投资者受益，因为比特币将成为大众的有利选择。
尽管比特币可以很好地受益于央行的现金注入和零利率环境，但对于较小的加密货币项目却不能说相同。
由于ICO / IEO市场不再被认为是现实的，因此区块链初创企业现在主要是在寻求风险资本家筹集资金。但是，由于冠状病毒和经济的不确定性，在过去几周内，对于区块链项目而言，挑战性越来越大。
在过去的几周中，稳定币的使用有所增加。随着风险资产崩溃，交易员和投资者将资金转移到稳定资产中，尤其是美元支持的数字货币已经涌入资金。在市场崩溃期间，两种领先的美元支持稳定币-Tether USD（USDT）和USDCoin（USDC）-交易量大量流入。
无论当前的金融环境如何，投资组合中都有加密货币的投资者都将有兴趣了解加密货币资产将如何继续应对这一不断发展的危机。
当他们的加密资产未能幸免于市场崩盘时，购买加密货币作为对冲传统市场的投资者受到了影响。世卫组织宣布全球大流行之后，比特币一天暴跌了25％，替代币遭受了更严重的崩溃。
尽管法定货币和加密货币是两种不同类型的资产，但投资者选择加密货币以实现更多样化，并且还相信加密货币在未来将提供更大的回报。然而，有趣的是要注意到加密货币将如何与黄金和白银的历史投资进行比较，以供大众市场采用。
加密货币仍然乐观
鉴于全球当前不利的经济状况，看到加密货币市场崩溃并不奇怪。但是，从长远来看，加密货币仍然看起来很乐观。各国政府正在积极采取相应的财政政策来应对这种情况，这将对加密市场产生积极影响。
最近，印度最高法院撤销了先前禁止金融机构向印度储备银行向加密货币公司提供银行服务的禁令。此外，传统行业也在积极探索区块链的可能性。因此，仍然值得期待区块链的金融包容甚至大规模采用。
***此内容不是财务建议，不应作为任何财务投资决策的基础，也不应被视为购买或出售任何商品或产品的建议。交易加密货币很复杂，并且有很高的赔钱风险。您应该仔细考虑交易加密货币是否适合您，并花点时间学习交易的工作方式并确定您准备冒多少风险。
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