Market Outlook #5 嘉库市场展望 #5
Latest market trends, highlights and news 最新市场趋势，亮点和新闻
Despite cryptocurrencies facing two major market crashes in correlation with the broader plunge in equity markets in March, the market seems to have recovered since then.
Crypto Assets are not relenting in the fight to start the month of May on a positive note.
The entire market capitalization or value of cryptocurrencies jumped $35.3 billion in 24 hours on 30th April 2020. Central bank monetary policy, as well as an upcoming bitcoin halving, could be the possible factors for the rise in cryptocurrency.
Major central banks around the world have unveiled huge stimulus packages to cushion the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. They have also signalled their willingness to do more. This has been a factor behind the recent rise in stock markets in the past few days and has filtered through to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin halving event essentially reduces the supply of bitcoin coming onto the market. Halving is an event that happens every four years. Previous halving events have caused huge price increases in bitcoin.
Bitcoin made a spectacular move on Wednesday and Thursday amid warnings from the United States Federal Reserve that the economy is staring into a recession. The regulator has decided to keep the lending rates near 0% and urged that more stimulus be advanced when needed. Global economies are on the verge of collapse as governments allocated most of the resources to fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Experts predicted that Bitcoin will rally to $17,000 in six months. The prediction comes after BTC crossed above the key 200-day moving average in April. As long as the price remains above this moving average, BTC/USD uptrend will sustain.
Bitcoin had the potential to correct above $10,000 before the halving. However, the price action will depend on buyers’ ability to support above $9,000.
Halving event may have a negative short-term effect on the BTC price due to miners selling BTC in order to accumulate enough bitcoin after the halving occurs and finance their operations for many months. The break-even price to mine one bitcoin is equal to approx. 7000$, after the halving this would be around 12–13$k. In this way, miners made huge investments, in order to reduce their risks, making it less risky to just dump the BTC price and obtain enough bitcoin after the halving instead of maintaining on strong momentum.
Vitalik Buterin’s issuance of ETH 2.0 will be reduced by a large margin. Buterin was speaking in a podcast interview touched on the features that distinguish Ethereum from Bitcoin as well as the reasons why the network is shifting to a Proof of Stake algorithm. The ongoing test net is recording the issuance of about 100,000 ETH per year as compared to 4.7 million a year in the existing Ethereum network. On the other hand, ETH 2.0 is expected to have the issuance of between 100,000 ETH and 2 million every year. Ethereum managed to achieve new monthly highs after soaring above its resistance at $220. The bull run extended the price action above $225 it seems to be resisting to breakthrough above $227. In the meantime, ETH/USD has corrected under $220 and exchanging hands at $203 (4th May 2020).
The crude oil CFD decreased in value because Russia and Saudi Arabia are unable to mutually agree on the OPEC+ production cut. The price went down with a staggering 30%. Relating to BTC, if the oil price goes down the price of electricity goes down which makes mining Bitcoin cheaper and that could lead to an even higher hash rate for Bitcoin — which has a positive correlation with the value of Bitcoin.
Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice and should not form the basis of any financial investment decisions nor be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any good or product. Trading cryptocurrency is complex and comes with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you and take the time to learn how trading works and decide how much money you are prepared to risk.
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在美联储警告美国经济正陷入衰退之际，比特币在周三和周四采取了引人注目的行动。监管机构已决定将贷款利率保持在0％附近，并敦促在需要时采取更多刺激措施。随着政府分配大部分资源来对抗新冠病毒大流行，全球经济正处于崩溃的边缘。专家预测，比特币将在六个月内反弹至17,000美元。 BTC在四月份突破关键的200天移动平均线之后做出了这一预测。只要价格保持在该移动平均线之上，BTC / USD的上升趋势就会持续。
ETH 2.0的发行量将大大减少。 以太坊创造者在一次播客采访中发表讲话，谈到以太坊与比特币的区别，以及网络转向权益证明算法的原因。正在进行的测试网记录了每年约100,000 ETH的发行量，而现有以太坊网络中则为每年470万的发行量。另一方面，预计ETH 2.0每年将发行10万至200万枚ETH。在以太坊飙升至阻力位220美元之后，以太坊设法达到新的月度高点。多头将价格行动扩大至225美元上方，似乎正在抵抗突破227美元。同时，ETH / USD修正在220美元以下，交易价格为203美元（2020年5月4日）。
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