Unreasonableness, Underdogs and Unexpectedness — Exile of the Mainstream
“THE REASONABLE MAN ADAPTS HIMSELF TO THE WORLD: THE UNREASONABLE ONE PERSISTS IN TRYING TO ADAPT THE WORLD TO HIMSELF. THEREFORE, ALL PROGRESS DEPENDS ON THE UNREASONABLE MAN.”
– GEORGE BERNARD SHAW
Shaw’s definition of unreasonableness is something most people socially and in business shy away from. We have all felt the tension in the boardroom when a member challenges a seniority figure, or the resistance in a workforce when there is a shift in culture, or the plight of an employee opposing a change in management. And so we have all evolved to ‘be reasonable’ in certain situations. There is nothing wrong with being reasonable, except ‘what is reasonable’ is subjective and, as a result, a poor guide when designing actions that push boundaries and shape the future of organizations.
Being reasonable is akin to the Law of Averages. In essence, it is a fallacy; wishful thinking, improperly used to give comfort to one’s assumptions. Moreover, it (wrongfully) guides us to feel and act safely–we inevitably act in accordance with what we believe and we feel safe in knowing our actions will turn out in accordance with our expectations. This way of thinking promotes a vicious circle of beliefs, expectations and actions. By definition, what is predictable has been done before. And, unequivocally, what has been done before is not likely to have a significant impact in the future.
My career has spanned entrepreneurship, wealth management and strategy consulting, and throughout it, I have witnessed investors, shareholders, management teams, employees and other stakeholders make ‘reasonable’ business decisions based on expert knowledge, analytical models, normalcy, underlying paradigms, and good judgment. I’m not one to oppose analytical or logical thought, but these facets of reasonableness prescribe restrictive actions. It forces us to think ‘within the box’, to practise what others do, what we have always done, to avert (the necessary) risks, to not overcommit or play the winning hand when we have the chance. Being reasonable does not seem the best approach when trying to innovate, when building a breakthrough business, or when trying to stay one step ahead of the competition.
UNDERDOGS AND OVERDOGS
I have just finished reading Malcolm Gladwell’s book, David and Goliath. Amongst other stories, he retells the Biblical tale of the shepherd boy, David, representing the Israelites-the only person brave enough to accept the challenge put forward by the Philistines-to meet their warrior giant, Goliath, for single combat. David, to his own side’s surprise, refuses to don battle armour. And so, armed with only a slingshot and five stones, he runs towards the battleground. Once in sight, David aims. And with a single stone fired at the Goliath’s temple, he wounds the giant unconscious. David then strikes and slays the fallen giant, surmounting victorious.
But have we been reading this classic underdog story all wrong? Gladwell makes us question our guided understanding that David was the underdog: David changed the rules of the game. He wasn’t disadvantaged. He innovated. He was ‘unreasonable’. As soon as he disregarded the laws of ‘single combat’ and picked up his sling, the half-blind, hulking-behemoth, Goliath, was doomed. Gladwell quotes the historian Robert Dohrenwend: “Goliath has as much chance against David…as any bronze age warrior would have against an opponent armed with a .45 automatic pistol.”
So, how do we become more unreasonable and learn how to topple the Giants we face? Here are five guiding principles:
1. Innovation:
To win against a giant, you have to change the rules. David may or may not have been the underdog, but he played by his own strategy and rules. He was different. So, whether innovation is through technology, invention, ‘blue oceans’, or disruption, it is critical to break the status quo and innovate.
2. Advantages v. Disadvantages:
What we sometimes view as advantages (being big, well-armed and strong) vs disadvantages (being small, fast and lightly-armed) is not always correct. Our default position, therefore, can sometimes be wrong. Gladwell writes: “The powerful are not as powerful as they seem… nor the weak as weak.” Learning to harness our ‘disadvantages’ can strengthen us. They may also turn out to be advantages in the long-run.
3. The “Over-dog” problem:
Like Goliath, we sometimes underestimate how crucial effort, motivation and focus can be in affecting an outcome. Gladwell’s previous book shows evidence of the effect of 10,000 hours of work and fine-tuning in becoming an expert in many fields from business to sport. What we need to avoid is complacency-implicitly understanding how good you are can expose your self-belief as delusional when you’re proved wrong. Don’t be the over-dog.
4. Don’t think within Reason:
We need to think beyond normalcy and what is appropriate. If you are an industry specialist, challenge yourself to think unbounded by the traditional knowledge and models of your industry. There are obvious reasons why things are done a certain way. Challenge the reasons why and instead ask: What if we did this? What would happen then? Would this work instead? What would work even better? So eliminate the reasons why. Think unconventionally. Bring an ‘unreasoning’ perspective to light.
5. Expect the Unexpected:
First, we need unreasonable expectations. The frameworks that guide us to be cautious (on the upside and downside), and hedge our bets; prevent us from considering the ‘Black Swan’ event that could bring ruin. Expectations can also accelerate productivity and efficiency. So set high expectations of yourself and make unreasonable plans for your teams so that you are forced to figure out: how you must deliver on them, how to turn your bold claims into a reality, how you make the choice on what is worth doing and what is worth forgoing for the company. The answers may not be reasonable, but they position you for the unexpected.
Using these principles is about introspection and awareness. Unreasonable thinking is not about ignoring all industry knowledge, rationality or logic. Do not ignore the accumulated wisdom you already have. But harness it to produce a shift in thinking so you can explore new ideas, consider alternative perspectives, push the envelope and avoid biases. Challenging one’s own assumptions is a difficult thing to do. None of us wants to admit what we think or know is wrong. The trick is to stop and think: verify what you believe is correct–by attempting to disprove such hypotheses–and try to look at problems and situations in a different light.
The fear of failure and/or the unknown holds us back from harnessing our true potential and producing exceptional results. Yet the only way to create breakthroughs in business is by taking the road less traveled, being unreasonable and creating ideas that shift the paradigm. As Gladwell puts it:
“Unexpected freedom comes from having nothing to lose.”
Originally published at https://exileofthemainstream.com on February 24, 2020.
Hi, I’m Adam (Exile of the Mainstream). I’ve worked in venture capital management consulting and financial markets for 10+ years — name a topic and I’ve not only read it, but I’ve likely lived it. Follow me on Twitter and Instagram.
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