de Blasio Unbound
TO: Bill de Blasio
RE: Polling and The Sprint To Election Day
As you know, a Quinnipiac poll released on Thursday has you trailing Joe Lhota by 17 points in the NYC mayoral race. Just kidding! We’ve been feeling pretty frisky here at HQ, because of course the actual poll numbers show you leading by 50 points among likely voters.
We feel — at least those among us who still bother to come into the office — that this cushion allows us some unusual luxuries as we look ahead to the final five weeks of the campaign. Specifically, we believe it enables us to consider strategic choices that just wouldn’t be available to a campaign with a less hilariously insurmountable lead. We’ve taken the liberty of sketching a few out, along with a rough estimate of the net polling hit each might exact.
CAMPAIGN IN THE NUDE.
We feel this would add a note of youthful freshness and vigor to the campaign’s final weeks, and would also help energize you as the weather on the hustings turns brisker. Our best guess is this would lead to a six percent loss among church people and the generally uptight, but a partially offsetting three percent gain among self-described Libertarians and the Coney Island Polar Bears. NET LOSS: THREE POINTS.
CAMPAIGN IN A GIANT RAINBOW AFRO WIG.
Besides showing that you’re a loose, confident candidate, we believe this would be a subtle way to remind voters about your own family’s multi-ethnicity and keep the hugely popular Dante in people’s minds. Although we anticipate a six percent dip among voters who might erroneously believe that you’re the John 3:16 guy, we also predict a two percent bump among voters in Brooklyn. NET LOSS: FOUR POINTS.
CAMPAIGN IN THE NUDE WITH A GIANT RAINBOW AFRO WIG.
We admit this one is a little blue-sky, and combining suggestions 1 and 2 above does scramble the predictive process. Let’s average it out and call it a net loss of 3.5 points. In fact, what the hell: NET LOSS: FOUR POINTS.
ACTIVELY URGE PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR JOE LHOTA.
This could demonstrate that you’re a fair-minded guy with a generous nature, particularly if we take some of that ad budget we apparently no longer need and do a big media buy for Lhota. Plus two points, minus five. NET LOSS: THREE POINTS.
PUBLICLY EMBRACE THE LEGACY OF JOSEF STALIN.
Remember a couple of weeks ago, when Lhota tried to tar you as a “Marxist” because of your long-ago ties to the Nicaraguan left? We were able to slip the punch because no one except his family was listening to Lhota by that point. We now feel this was a missed opportunity. Heck, why not have some fun with it? Marx is more or less a dusty abstraction for people; the bloodthirsty Stalin makes for a much more vivid bad guy. Throwing your arms around his memory tells folks you won’t be intimidated by political correctness. Admittedly, this one is outside the box, with a fairly substantial downside risk. We see a possible eleven point hit and only a small potential bump of two among actual Stalinists, of whom there are apparently still a few left around 96th & Amsterdam, thanks largely to rent control. NET LOSS: NINE POINTS.
KILL A GUY. ON LIVE TV.
We’re not advocating murder, and feel we can thread the needle on this one by spinning it as a “Rollerball”-like social satire. Still, haters gonna hate: Thirteen points down, three points up among hipsters and nihilists, for a NET LOSS OF TEN POINTS. And if this one floats your boat, why not really go big?
PLEDGE YOUR ALLEGIANCE TO SATAN.
We admit this one’s out there, but feel it’s still worth considering. Let’s say it costs you twelve points among voters who are easily shocked, or who maintain inflexible notions of right and wrong. You might pick up one among Satan worshippers, for a NET LOSS OF ELEVEN. Worth considering, particularly if you believe in the Son of Perdition and his awesome abilities to wrangle the Dark Powers should there be a blizzard or sanitation strike.
So, to summarize: It’s our belief that for the next five weeks you could campaign in the nude (with or without a giant rainbow Afro wig), actively urge people to vote for your opponent, publicly embrace the legacy of Josef Stalin, kill a guy on live TV, and pledge your allegiance to the Beastmaster, and still win by six.
Thoughts? (We’re working a half day today, and the polling team is taking tomorrow off to go see “Gravity.” So maybe we can talk next week.)