A Tale of Two Conventions
The general election is finally here. For better or worse, we’ve made it through the slough of what has been this primary and are off to the races. While not entirely, as Trump supporter Jeffery Lord said on CNN last Wednesday night, “a binary choice,” with former Governor Gary Johnson, and Dr. Jill Stein running 3rd party campaigns, ultimately this will be an election of either Donald Trump, or Hillary Clinton.
The conventions were good to the candidates, with both Trump and Clinton receiving ‘convention bumps’ in the polls following the RNC, and DNC, respectively. While the candidates were polling roughly equal before the conventions, Trump pulled ahead of Mrs. Clinton at the conclusion of the RNC, leading her by 4 points. By the end of the DNC, however, Hillary Clinton had closed the gap and then some, and led Trump by 3 points in the polls*.
As more time passes and we move into post-convention life, it seems that Clinton’s ‘bump’ may have been more than a bump, and is just an actual lead. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver reported yesterday that Clinton’s smallest “fully post-DNC” lead in national polls is 5 percentage points, while her biggest is 15 points.
I had the privilege of spending time at both the Republican and Democratic conventions over the past two weeks. Here are some of my key takeaways.
*Poll data collected from Morning Consult
Democrats are Reclaiming Patriotism
Consider these themes: American exceptionalism, family values, standing up for the Armed Forces, flag-waving, chants of U-S-A!, and waxing poetic about our nation’s founding documents. For decades these have been the bread and butter of Republican rhetoric — the right was home to the hard-working, the traditional, and what Sarah Palin would call the ‘real’ Americans. Democrats spent their convention snatching these themes away from the GOP and making them their own.
Hillary Clinton on American values:
“Freedom and equality, justice and opportunity. We should be so proud that these words are associated with us. I have to tell you, as your Secretary of State, I went to 112 countries, and when people hear those words — they hear America.”
Joe Biden on the military and the economy:
“We have the finest fighting force in the world. Not only do we have the largest economy in the world, we have the strongest economy in the world. We have the most productive workers in the world. And given a fair shot, given a fair chance, Americans have never, ever, ever, ever, let their country down. Never.”
President Barak Obama on American Exceptionalism (channeling Ronald Reagan):
“America is already great. America is already strong. And I promise you, our strength, our greatness, does not depend on Donald Trump. [. . .] Ronald Reagan called America “a shining city on a hill.” Donald Trump calls it “a divided crime scene” that only he can fix.”
As these speeches went on, members of the GOP began to take note.
Jonah Goldberg, National Review Columnist:
John Podhoretz, former speech writer for Ronald Reagan:
Rich Galen, Dick Cheney’s former Press Secretary:
I believe Mr. Goldberg got to the root of the problem: suddenly it seems that the GOP isn’t the pro-America party, the pro-small business party, or the pro-limited government party. It’s the pro-Trump party. Political conventions are pageantry with an occasional dash of real substance. They are effectively advertisements for the respective parties, and while Democrats in Philadelphia offered hope, excitement, and patriotism, the GOP struggled to offer more than Donald Trump, and his depressing vision of the future.
Trumpers Feel Threatened, Berners Feel Deceived
I spent a lot of time around the protesters and demonstrators at both conventions, and I think the overall emotions at each can be boiled down to two basic emotions. The pro-Trump / anti-Hillary crowd at the RNC feels threatened, and the pro-Bernie / anti-Hillary crowd at the DNC feels betrayed.
Pro-Trump demonstrators in Cleveland were quick to tell me about what they felt was a sharp rise of terrorist attacks in the United States, the recent increase in police officers killed on the job in Baton Rouge and Dallas, and lax border security that would only make things less safe and take away more jobs. There was one other fear that was near-ubiquitous, and that was the fear of a Hillary Clinton presidency.
The DemExit protesters in Philadelphia weren’t so concerned with the future as they were with the immediate present. Big money in politics, alleged election fraud, and a belief that their candidate Bernie Sanders had been bullied out of a fair shot superseded any other political issues at hand.
The thing is, both groups can find myriad sources that support their positions, and an equal number that counter them, and it’s hard to imagine either group ever changing their minds. A popular chant from protesters in FDR park on the final night of the DNC went like this: Show me what democracy looks like! This is what democracy looks like! They were right, of course, but the issue is that all the politicos inside the Wells Fargo center in their suits with their credentials and powerful networks look like democracy, and loving a candidate who makes you feel passionate about the future only to see him lose an election well, that’s also what democracy looks like.
The Nation’s Law Enforcement Got Two Big Wins (When they really needed them)
I reported in my coverage of the RNC’s final day that there were police departments from as far and wide as California and Massachusetts there to help with security. Interestingly enough I didn’t see any law enforcement in Philadelphia other than Philadelphia PD, PA State Police, Bucks County Sherifs Deputies, and the Secret Service. That’s not to say there was any less security at the DNC, on the contrary, the event and surrounding protest areas felt very secure with very heavy police presences, which is the point.
Police and protesters were in such close contact at both conventions that it was common to be walking through a protest, make a turn to try and cut through the crowd, only to run directly into the chest of a police officer.
In a climate where Americans have record levels of distrust in police, and issues of police brutality and racial discrimination by law enforcement are more on the forefront of American social consciousness than ever before, the following stats are remarkable: 24 convention related arrests in Cleveland, and just 11 in Philadelphia. Even when things got a little out of hand — protesters climbing over the perimeter fence in Philadelphia, or protesters burning an American flag in Cleveland — the majority of police and demonstrators kept their cool, and everyone stayed safe.
In a campaign season bereft with controversies and disunity, and an election between two candidates so disliked they’re breaking records, it’s good to see some of our institutions working properly.
Fear vs. hope, allegations of fraud and corruption vs. allegations of bigotry and an unfit mind for the job, a candidate we’re familiar with vs. a candidate unlike any we’ve ever seen before — all these things made for deeply fascinating conventions that were a pleasure to attend. Those qualities also lead me to my final takeaway, which may seem obvious: this is a pivotal moment in American history. Every presidential election is historically relevant and important by default, but there are so many folks on both sides of the political spectrum that feel victimized by a system they feel doesn’t care for them, respect them, or consider their views that it’s hard to imagine the status quo stays for much longer.
