Alabama Shows Us The Blue Wave Is Coming — Thanks To Black Voters
In 2016, a majority of white voters across the country chose a man backed by white nationalists who was accused of sexual assault for President. In 2017, a majority of white voters in Alabama chose to put a man backed by white nationalists who was accused of sexual assault in the US Senate. White voters in America have consistently chose Republican candidates, even when those candidates have embodied the worst traits of our society: racial hatred, contempt for the poor and marginalized, and grave sexual misconduct. But the Alabama special election showed us that a political punditry that focuses entirely on the whims of white voters misses the big picture.
Indeed, elections in Virginia and New Jersey also bucked the prevailing narrative among political pundits. Since the 2016 election, we’ve all heard that the Democratic base was no longer energized. We’ve heard that “centrist” candidates can no longer win elections, that only candidates backed by Bernie Sanders have a chance. We’ve heard that Democrats must have a laser focus on the white working class if they want to win elections in red states. And of course, you’ve heard that Democrats can’t win by simply resisting Trump, that opposing the President’s agenda wouldn’t be enough to convince voters to turnout.
We can say we certainty that the narrative is wrong. And although it was the prevailing message on Democrats from pundits since 2016, it was never based in real fact. It turns out that you can win races by opposing Trump, and by pushing candidates who don’t fit the mold of Bernie Sanders. Democrats can win without dropping “identity politics” and making full appeals to racist Trump voters. The white working class doesn’t have to be the center of Democratic politics. Virginia, New Jersey, and Alabama showed us that the future of the Democratic Party is a multiracial, antiracist coalition with people of color driving turnout. That’s why diversity and inclusion are so powerful — not only are they morally right, they are also driving turning out people of color. As Democrats ride the Blue Wave into 2018, they need to focus on ways they can empower people of color. A great start would be a voting rights agenda that promotes the restoration of voting rights to former felons (one quarter of Black people in Florida can’t vote for this reason!), repealing voter ID laws across the country, and pushing automatic voter registration. Running and organizing on resistance to Trump can create electric results for Democrats. Doug Jones, Ralph Northam, and Phil Murphy are just the latest evidence.
Black Voters Are Responsible For Doug Jones’ Win
There is no question now. Doug Jones’ victory is owed to a surge in Black turnout. Those Black voters were motivated to prevent Roy Moore from going to the Senate and voting to enact the Trump agenda. Essentially, they were voting for self-preservation against a President whose platform is the degradation of people of color. Jones pushed his support for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) but it was ultimately resistance to Trumpian politics that motivated Black voters in Alabama. That is something that can be replicated nationwide in the 2018 midterms. The numbers are remarkable, 97% of Black women voted for Jones, and 92% of Black men did. On the other hand, 74% of white men voted for Moore, and 65% of white women did. Despite the numerous allegations of sexual assault (against minors!) Moore faced, nearly two of three white women in Alabama still voted for him. The numbers are stark reminders that people of color, Black voters especially, are the Democratic base and are the engine that powers Democratic wins.
Democrats Must Focus On Turning Out Their Base — Not On The White Working Class Voter
A lot has been made about the white working class as the supposed saviors of the Democratic Party. After the Democrats’ Presidential loss in 2016, the prevailing media narrative, one especially pushed hard by Bernie Sanders, was that Democrats had to turn their focus to the white working class. Particularly, there was an idea that if the focus was on class issues, white working class Trump voters would suddenly turn into Democratic supporters. Well, Doug Jones supported the Children’s Health Insurance Program and other initiatives that will benefit the Alabama working class. He opposes the Republican tax bill that will funnel money from the poor and middle class towards the wealthy. Roy Moore had campaigned partly on his support for that tax bill, one that would hurt the worst off living in Alabama. Did the white working class notice that Doug Jones was promoting their economic interest while Roy Moore stood against it? Well, the white working class answered that question pretty clearly. Roy Moore won 76% of white non-college voters. In Virginia, Gillespie won those same voters despite favoring many of the same types of tax schemes being pushed by Republicans on the federal level. Gillespie became notorious for racist messaging against Latinos, and Moore is infamous for saying effectively saying that Black people had closer families during slavery. Again, it seems that the white working class isn’t moved by class politics, but by racial resentment. So it would be impossible for Democrats to win this demographic back without the type of embrace of open racism that would lose their core base. That means the media focus on the white working class can’t become Democratic policy. And indeed it hasn’t — Tom Perez’s DNC invested $1 million in turning out Black voters and millennials in the Alabama election, a move which proved fitting.
Resistance Politics And Opposing Trump Energizes The Base
It turns out that resistance politics and opposing the Trump agenda can energize and turnout the base after all. Much had been made by the Sanders left of “moving beyond resistance” but the Virginia, New Jersey, and Alabama elections have shown us that the base can be moved to action by coming out strongly against Trump’s racism and sexism. When the party puts money into organizing marginalized communities, an anti-Trump message can be a winning one. This presents a major opportunity in 2018 and beyond.
Black Voters Are Probably Going To Choose The 2020 Democratic Nominee
It is important to recognize the extent to which Black voters drive Democratic politics. So many white voters have left the Democratic Party in the southern states that Black voters are now a majority of Democrats in places like Alabama and Mississippi. Those states, and others like Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Louisiana, Texas, and Florida are going to play a massive role in determining who the Democratic nominee in 2020 will be. As Bernie Sanders showed us in 2016, you won’t come close to winning the nomination if you can’t do well with nonwhites. The southern states in the Democratic nomination contest highlight this, because so many big states with delegates are increasingly diverse. The candidate who Black voters coalesce around is going to have a tremendous advantage in 2020, as was the story in 2016. And Black voters want a candidate who is going to stand up to Trump’s agenda, oppose his racist messaging, and not focus all of their political efforts on the white working class. Potential 2020 candidates like Cory Booker and Kamala Harris have campaigned in for winning Democrats like Keisha Bottoms in Atlanta and Doug Jones in Alabama. They are building connections in southern states with local candidates and institutions that Black voters trust. They aren’t claiming that the south will “distort the primary race” or saying that “Trump has the same message as I do,” like a certain Senator from Vermont recently claimed. Booker and Harris have recognized that a strong resistance to Trump is going to power the Democratic engine in 2018 and 2020. Hopefully the major media outlets will recognize it too, and start sending journalists to interview Black Clinton voters in places like Alabama.
