Gerrymandering’s Paralyzing Effect: HB2
Are you wondering why all efforts to repeal HB2 seem to fail? One answer is gerrymandering.
In the 2016 elections, just over 4 million votes were cast statewide for North Carolina House of Representative elections. Republicans won 52% of the vote, but because of gerrymandering they control 62% of the seats. In congressional elections, the gerrymander is worse with Republicans receiving 54% of the vote and holding 77% of the seats.
The vast majority of districts are either safely Democratic or safely Republican. The true number of swing districts is just a handful. The result is that most legislators are rewarded more for representing our base than for finding compromise.
Legislative Republicans have benefitted from gerrymandering to such an extent that they have supermajority power in both legislative chambers. They can pass any bill they want and override the governor’s veto whenever they decide to. They passed HB2 in one day and they could repeal it in one day as well.
Some Republican legislators want to repeal HB2 but they are afraid to do the right thing because they are victims of their own gerrymandering. In gerrymandered seats, their base doesn’t want them to back down on HB2, and they are afraid of facing a primary challenge from far-right conservatives if they take too many moderate positions.
In the North Carolina House of Representatives, there are currently 74 Republicans and 46 Democrats. Democrats will vote for full repeal of HB2. We would only need 15 Republicans to join us to have the 61 votes necessary. There are probably 20–40 Republicans who will never vote to overturn HB2 because of their bias against LGBTQ people. But shouldn’t there be 15 members somewhere in the middle who are sufficiently concerned about the economic impact to vote for a repeal?
To compound the problem, the House Republicans also adhere to a “majority of the majority” rule whereby they will not allow any bill to come to a vote without at least 38 of their members agreeing to support it. So the threshold for HB2 repeal may be 38 Republicans supporting repeal rather than just 15.
Public opinion is completely out of line with the Republican position. A High Point University poll last week showed that 63 percent of North Carolinians believe HB2 is negatively impacting our economy, and 59 percent believe HB2 is unnecessary for protecting our public safety.
Five Republican members of the House of Representatives (1)(2)(3)(4)(5) have publicly called for repeal of HB2, and even campaigned on a pledge to repeal it and add LGBT non-discrimination protections. But they have been silent since our legislative session started this year, presumably because of fears of their base.
So in the face of overwhelming public opposition to HB2, there are a few dozen Republicans holding up repeal because they are afraid to agree to any deal that appears to benefit Democrats or give any rights to LGBTQ North Carolinians. If districts were fairly drawn and more representative, these same politicians might be rewarded for compromise and common sense.
Curious about gerrymandering? My friend Sen. Jeff Jackson produced this great video that explains more about how it works in North Carolina.
When asked to defend gerrymandering, Republicans point out that Democrats did it when we were in charge. Yes, but two wrongs don’t make a right.
So perhaps it is encouraging that four Republicans recently filed a bill (HB200) that would end gerrymandering and create a non-partisan redistricting process. The bill has 35 co-sponsors, including me, although almost all are Democrats.
Unfortunately, I don’t believe that HB200 will pass this year. There are too many Republicans happy with the power and control that they have. But as we get closer to the 2021 redistricting process, Republican leadership may be more inclined to support a non-partisan process if they become afraid that they may lose their majority at the ballot box. To make that happen, Democrats have to win legislative seats in 2018 and 2020 as the new redistricting process approaches.
In the meantime, the public needs to become much more informed about gerrymandering and its perils. It is not the simplest political issue to explain, but perhaps people will understand it and feel a sense of urgency if they see how it leads to paralyzing situations like HB2.
Graig Meyer is the State Representative for North Carolina House District 50, covering portions of Orange and Durham Counties. He can be contacted at graig.meyer@ncleg.net.
