GPS: Continuity in Iran, Trump’s strategy for the Middle East, and Maduro’s plan for survival
This week we look at the results of the Iranian election, and Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, where he revealed his plans to balance Tehran’s growing regional power. We also analyze the US President’s meeting with NATO leaders, and provide an update on Maduro’s latest plans to cling to power in Venezuela.
Leads tracker:
Rouhani re-elected:
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani gestures during a news conference in Tehran, Iran, May 22, 2017. TIMA via REUTERS
With 57% of the vote, Hassan Rouhani was re-elected as Iranian President on May 19. The moderate president’s clear victory confirmed a majority of Iranians support modernizing the country and opening itself up to the wider world. Rouhani’s reforms have seen the government move to stabilize the economy, bring inflation under control, negotiate with the West to lift sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and prepare to liberalize parts of the energy sector to attract foreign firms.
The re-elected President also pledged during the campaign to weaken institutions with checks on the presidency, including the powerful Guardian Council and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Reforming the economy and controlling those institutions will be challenged by the country’s powerful interest groups. But should Rouhani succeed, he will become the natural successor of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a strong ally of Rouhani — for now, at least.
Rouhani also said Iran will continue with its ballistic missile program, which continues to stoke tensions in the region. The US president attacked Iran in a speech to Muslim leaders in Saudi Arabia, blaming the regime for most of the instability in the region.
Trump has big plans for the Middle East:
U.S. President Donald Trump looks over at the lineup of U.S. business chiefs on hand as he exits with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud (R) at the Royal Court in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia May 20, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
As his policy in the Middle East slowly coalesces, it seems increasingly clear that Trump appears determined to undo the changes that his predecessor made to Washington’s strategic relationships in the region. Unlike the Obama administration, which worked to minimize the risk of clashing with Shiite Iran, in order to refocus US capabilities to a much-touted pivot to Asia and to Russia, Trump is bolstering its Sunni rivals in the region.
That was precisely the tone of the US President’s visit in Riyadh, which Trump described as producing tremendous results. The United States and Saudi Arabia signed an extensive arms package worth almost $110 billion, and potentially up to $350 billion over the next decade. For Riyadh, the deal serves its goal to create a domestic defense industry, while beefing up its military and kick-starting the development of some form of homegrown capability.
Overall, the deal will form a key part of Trump’s plans to develop a united US, Saudi and Israeli front against Iran, in order to tip the balance of power in the region.
Maduro clings on:
Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro shows a document with the details of a ‘constituent assembly’ to reform the constitution during a rally at Miraflores Palace in Caracas, Venezuela May 23, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
The head of Venezuela’s National Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena, announced on May 23 that regional elections will take place in the country on December 10 — a year after they were initially scheduled. The vote to elect members of the new constituent assembly, which will rewrite the Venezuelan constitution, will take place in late July.
The Electoral Court has repeatedly delayed elections for fear that the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) would be defeated. Holding the election for the new constituent assembly before regional elections will do nothing to dent the perception that Maduro is trying to strengthen his power. The maneuver could help him cement his power and find legal justification to extend his presidential term. And if the assembly fails to produce its work by the regional election date in December, the Electoral Council would have to further delay this vote.
This will not appease Maduro’s opposition, which alleges that the ruling party will use the constituent assembly to help itself. Tension will remain high in the coming months, as food shortages, hyperinflation, and unemployment have prompted over a month of protests.
The meeting: Trump warns NATO members
NATO member leaders posing for a family picture before the start of their summit in Brussels, Belgium, May 25, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann
At a NATO summit in Brussels, Donald Trump warned that his fellow alliance leaders did not pay their fair share of defense spending. He claimed “23 of the 28 member nations are still not paying what they should be paying,” and that they owe “massive amounts” from past years. While this is hardly a shift from his prior saber-rattling, the summit was the first time Trump was able to spread his particular gospel face-to-face with all of NATO’s leaders.
Earlier that day, Trump met with European Union leaders. Following the encounter, Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, said he and Trump agreed on counterterrorism, but did not see eye to eye on a number of other issues, including climate change, trade and Russia.
Your Digest:
Brazilian leader on the edge:
Demonstrators hold a sign reading ‘Out Temer’ during a protest against Brazil’s President Michel Temer in Sao Paulo, Brazil, May 21, 2017. REUTERS/Nacho Doce
Brazilian President Michel Temer is under fire amid reports that prosecutors have obtained recordings of him discussing hush money with a jailed associate. Subsequent allegations of obstruction of justice have sparked street protests and calls for his impeachment by Brazilian lawmakers. The Brazilian government deployed troops after protests against the president turned violent. Thousands had gathered in the country’s capital, Brasília, and demonstrators began attacking government ministries, setting fire to the ministry of agriculture.
Terror strikes again:
Messages and floral tributes left for the victims of the attack on Manchester Arena lie around the statue in St Ann’s Square in central Manchester, May 24, 2017. REUTERS/Jon Super
22 people were killed and many more wounded at a concert packed with children in Manchester, UK, by an attack carried out by Salman Abedi, who was previously known to British counter-terrorism officers. Following the attack, UK police scrambled to close down a network with arrests in Britain and Tripoli, as details about the investigation were leaked to U.S. media, infuriating authorities who fear a second attack is imminent. The threat level in Britain remains critical.
Duterte strengthens crackdown on Islamic group:
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte attends a welcoming ceremony upon his arrival at Vnukovo International Airport in Moscow, Russia, May 22, 2017. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law in his country’s southern region of Mindanao after government troops clashed with Islamic State-linked militants. Duterte later said he may expand martial law in the Visayas region and even Luzon if terrorist groups spread their activities. In a call transcript, Trump praised Duterte’s war on drugs and let slip that he had two nuclear submarines off the Korean Peninsula.
Korean saga continues:
FILE PHOTO — A Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptor is launched during a successful intercept test, in this undated handout photo provided by the U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense Agency. U.S. Department of Defense, Missile Defense.
On May 21, North Korea test-fired a medium-range missile, according to U.S. and South Korean officials. Meanwhile, South Korea’s Democratic Party floor leader Representative Woo Won Shik said that the government should consider returning the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system if proper legal procedure had not been followed regarding the system. The new government has been advocating for appeasing tensions with the Northern neighbor.
Spain’s troubled politics:
FILE PHOTO: Former Socialists leader Pedro Sanchez arrives at Parliament at the start of the investiture debate in Madrid October 26, 2016. REUTERS/Sergio Perez/File Photo
Pedro Sánchez has been made leader of the Spanish Socialist Party once again. The move increases the possibility of a hung parliament over key reforms, which conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had previously warned would trigger a new general election. However, following the appointment, Rajoy played down worries of a fresh wave of political instability in the country’s already shaky polity.
Figure of the Week:
$639 billion — that’s President Trump’s budget proposal for the Department of Defense. This represents a $52 billion increase from the 2017 budget.
Graph of the week:
Tweets of the week:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls Trump a true friend.
European leaders used a more critical tone following their meeting with Trump, as Donald Tusk’s reaction shows.
