GPS: Terror in Russia; Horror in Syria and Maduro’s plan for survival
This week we look at two acts of terror. The first is increasingly looking like a terrorist attack by a radicalized Muslim in Russia, and the other was almost definitely conducted by the Syrian government against its own people. We also dive into Nicolas Maduro’s plan to cling to power in Venezuela, and scrutinize the meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi in the context of North Korea’s latest provocations.
The leads tracker:
Russia mourns its dead
People holds candles to commemorate the victims of a blast in metro train in St. Petersburg, Russia, April 5, 2017. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov
On April 3, an explosion in a subway train in St. Petersburg killed 14 people and injured nearly 50 more. The explosion was quickly called a terrorist attack, of the kind Russia has not seen for the past four years despite its military action in Syria ostensibly targeting the Islamic State, which has claimed responsibility for large-scale assaults across Europe.
The prime suspect in the attack was identified as Akbarzhon Jalilov, a 22-year-old Russian citizen who had just returned from a visit to his home city of Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan. As Russian investigators followed the tracks of Jalilov and potential accomplices, they found explosives similar to those he used. This gives credence to Russian investigators’ claims of an organized attack in reaction to Russia’s fight against IS. The five former Soviet republics of Central Asia have struggled in recent years with radicalization among their growing population of unemployed young people.
This attack is likely to prompt a direct reaction from Moscow which could lead to serious blowback against the 200,000 Central Asian migrants living or working in Russia — as well as an estimated 20,000 there illegally. For the former Soviet Republics, such a reaction would deepen their economic woes and allow radicals of all stripes to further dig in their claws.
Assad crosses “many, many lines”
A crater is seen at the site of an airstrike, after what rescue workers described as a gas attack in the town of Khan Sheikhoun in rebel-held Idlib, Syria. REUTERS/Ammar Abdullah
Forces loyal to Bashar al Assad’s regime launched a chemical attack on rebel-held territory in the town of Khan Shaykhun in Idlib province. Reports found that between 70 and 100 people were killed, and UN White Helmets said that around 250 people were treated for respiratory conditions.
Coming just days after the US administration said removing Assad was no longer a priority for Washington, the attack makes little strategic sense for the regime. Shortly after the attack, Trump personally condemned the attack saying the government had crossed “many, many lines,” and abruptly, and publicly, changed his views of Assad. In retribution so far, the US launched a military attack on Syria with 60 Tomahawk missiles.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson went further by saying that it is time for Russia to think carefully about its continued support for the Syrian President. The Russians’ immediate reaction however, was to issue a statement claiming that the poisonous gas contamination was the result of gas leaking from a rebel chemical weapons depot after it was hit by Syrian government air strikes.
By insisting on this version of events, Moscow has made its choice — it is to stand by Assad. But if the bombing was in fact carried out by government forces, this latest use of chemical weapons despite Russian opposition would highlight the real limits of Russia’s influence in Syria. With this week’s terrorist attack leading back to Russia’s fight against the Islamic State, internal pressure could mount in the Kremlin to review its stance.
Maduro’s plots his survival
Demonstrators react during an opposition rally in Caracas, Venezuela April 4, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins
Ever since the country fell into a deep economic crisis that fast turned into a social one, Venezuela has been Latin America’s most troubled spot. In reaction to the dual crises, the government led by Nicolas Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has tried to save itself by delaying elections and cracking down on the opposition, prompting fierce criticism from the country’s neighbors and the United States.
Now the PSUV has taken its strategy a step further. Ahead of presidential elections scheduled for 2018, the PSUV — through the Venezuelan Supreme Court — moved to disband the National Assembly for allegedly disobeying orders that included the expulsion of three opposition lawmakers. Maduro is also reported to have begun to monitor the military and taken the first steps in forming a new militia to stifle social unrest, should Venezuelans take to the streets. The moves could trigger sanctions from Washington.
But there is another urgent crisis to resolve. Payments are due within the next two months on over $3bn worth of loans made out to the state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA. To avoid default, the government has been negotiating with Russian oil company Rosneft and US fund Fintech Advisory Inc. A default would hurt oil production even further and consequently would throw the country into an even deeper crisis, further increasing inflation, which is already sky-high, and causing food shortages to hit the population even harder.
The meeting: Pyongyang invites itself for dinner with Trump and Xi
US President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping and first lady Peng Liyuan at Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida, US, April 6, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time over a dinner of steak at Trump’s ostentatious Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida. The meal was to be the opening salvo in a series of talks covering the thorny issues of bilateral trade, security in East Asia and the South China Sea.
However, the issue of security on the Korean Peninsula was made even more pressing by Pyongyang’s latest missile launch this week, seen as a provocative gesture in Washington. Trump went so far as to warn that the US would take unilateral action to eliminate the nuclear threat from North Korea unless China increases pressure on the regime in Pyongyang. The US could also consider economic sanctions, but would rather find a solution in accord with Beijing.
The meeting is unlikely to produce concrete breakthroughs, on this issue or on bilateral trade links. But it will initiate a conversation which Trump hopes will eventually prove productive, as a statement issued after the dinner suggested:
“We’ve had a long discussion already, and so far I have gotten nothing, absolutely nothing, but we have developed a friendship — I can see that — and I think long term we are going to have a very, very great relationship and I look very much forward to it.”
Your Digest:
Brexit’s first flashpoint:
A British Airways aircraft takes off from Gibraltar International Airport in front of the Rock of the British overseas territory Gibraltar, historically claimed by Spain, April 3, 2017. REUTERS/Jon Nazca
Britain and Spain clashed over the status of Gibraltar, in what’s seen as the first spat in the Brexit process. Gibraltar is unlikely to be the only flashpoint in the relationship between the two countries The Scottish National Party’s calls for a fresh independence referendum are a concern for Madrid because of similar secessionist stirrings in Catalonia, Spain’s economic powerhouse.
Zuma’s economic shortsightedness
FILE PHOTO: South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma reacts during a rally in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, April 1, 2017. REUTERS/Rogan Ward/File Photo
After years of clashing, the South African President dismissed his finance minister, Pravin Gordhan. The move triggered calls within Zuma’s ruling ANC party to oust the President, but he eventually succeeded in stifling dissent — for now, at least. However, the move is worrying international investors, and Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s credit rating to junk status.
Recently elected:
Ecuador’s Presidential candidate Lenin Moreno (L) stands next to his wife Rocio Gonzalez as he greets supporters from the government palace’s balcony during a military change of guard ceremony in Quito, Ecuador April 3, 2017. REUTERS/Mariana Bazo
In Ecuador, the run-off of the presidential election brought victory to leftist Lenin Moreno, a paraplegic former vice president and United Nations special envoy on disability and accessibility, over his conservative challenger Guillermo Lasso, who contested the outcome over fraud allegations. Moreno is likely to succeed Rafael Correa to extend a decade-long leftist rule in oil-rich Ecuador. This is a rare victory for the Latin American left considering the recent turns to the right in Argentina, Brazil and Peru.
Serbian Prime Minister and presidential candidate Aleksandar Vucic celebrate his win at presidential election in his headquarters in Belgrade, Serbia, April 2, 2017. REUTERS/Antonio Bronic
Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vučić was elected President of the Balkan country. Vučić, a conservative, pledged to redouble efforts to create a free-trade zone across much of former Yugoslavia. In order to achieve this challenging plan, he will count on the EU’s support — Brussels and Berlin have expressed enthusiasm for the idea — while balancing this push against Serbia’s traditional ties to Russia, and Turkey’s alleged behind the scenes efforts to destabilize the region.
A new kind of protest:
Joseph Kabila Kabange, President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, addresses the 69th United Nations General Assembly at the U.N. headquarters in New York September 25, 2014. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, millions of people stayed home on April 3 in a national strike protesting the collapse of talks aimed at ending the country’s political stalemate. President Joseph Kabila has failed to honor a December 31 agreement to appoint a transitional government and prepare for overdue elections. This is not the first such “silent protest” in the country, but the opposition is now seeking to increase pressure on Kabila, with a nationwide march planned on April 10, which will see Congolese police deployed heavily across Kinshasa.
Making allies:
US President Donald Trump welcomes Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at the White House in Washington, US, April 3, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
Trump reiterated his support for Egyptian strongman Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who has been criticized for human rights violations and a press crackdown. The US President also vowed to work with him to fight terrorism, in what is considered by human rights activists as a fatal blow to the Arab Spring movement.
Figure of the week:
4,000 — That’s the number of members of the judiciary who have now been purged since last July’s failed coup in Turkey, which prompted a crack-down on the opposition and civil society. 45 more judges and prosecutors were dismissed on April 3. Overall, some 113,000 people from the police, military, public service, judiciary, media or civil society have been detained, sacked or dismissed by the government since July.
Graph of the week:
The Economist’s graphic guide to EU countries’ positions on Brexit, ahead of negotiations. According to a new index, the EU27 countries fall into three groups: hard-core, hard and soft.
Tweets of the week:
