Brexit triggered, Hong Kong’s new leader, and NATO’s faith

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9 min readMar 31, 2017

This week we look at the beginnings of Brexit, China’s influence over Hong Kong politics, and NATO’s attempt to expand while two Turkey and the US are embroiled in a diplomatic row.

The Leads tracker:

The UK files for divorce:

Britain’s permanent representative to the European Union Tim Barrow delivers British Prime Minister Theresa May’s letter invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty in notice of the UK’s intention to leave the bloc to EU Council President Donald Tusk in Brussels, Belgium March 29, 2017. REUTERS/Yves Herman

The game is on. With the UK invoking Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon on March 29, two years of Brexit negotiations have begun in earnest. Diplomats from across the EU cautiously welcomed the tone of the British letter, which implies Theresa May intends to seek a continued deal with the EU.

But Angela Merkel’s reaction confirmed more or less what we already knew: that the EU will not go easy on Westminster. Britain had hopes for parallel talks on trade and its withdrawal from the bloc. Instead, it will have to abide by the EU’s timeline. This means that trade talks can only take place once the terms of the divorce have been negotiated, and that talks will not take place before May, following an EU Summit on April 29 when EU leaders will give the Commission a negotiating mandate: a blow for British politicians who had boasted of a speedy deal.

Abiding by the continental union’s strictures is not the only worry for May. Merkel has repeatedly said that as much as she wants to safeguard a close relationship across the Channel, the interests of EU citizens will come first. This means compromises on a number of issues — a Brexit bill that could reach €50bn, access to the EU market and migration topping the list — will be difficult to reach.

In the meantime, both sides will have to handle internal political pressure, with leading EU France and Germany going to the polls in Spring 2017. On other side of the Channel, Westminster will have to deal with revived secessionist demands by the Scottish government and concerns about new border controls between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Tense and entangled negotiations marked by rhetorical clashes are highly likely.

China picks Hong Kong’s new leader

A man shakes hands with Carrie Lam, chief executive-elect, a day after she was elected in Hong Kong, China March 27, 2017. REUTERS/Bobby Yip

In the city of Hong Kong, elections have the air of a formality. The city’s Chief Executive is appointed by a 1,200-member election committee, and under Hong Kong’s Basic Law, China has the right to screen candidates, steer the nomination process and exercise veto power. If that was not enough, the Chinese government has had a tradition of leaning on the city’s politics.

The growing hostility toward Beijing — highlighted by the Occupy protests that brought parts of central Hong Kong to a standstill in 2014 — and the rising popularity of democratic movements inspired the Chinese government to throw its weight behind Carrie Lam. It came as no surprise that Lam was elected with 777 votes.

In her first speech, Lam pledged to “heal the divide” in Hong Kong’s society. But the very next day, organizers of the Occupy movement were notified they would be charged for their role in the 2017 protests. The Justice Department claimed the prosecutions were handled independently, which Lam confirmed. Lam also announced that she would not push for talks on political reform — the city was promised independence from Beijing 50 years from 1997, and the clock is ticking.

This rocky start has reform-minded opponents believing she is a Party shoo-in, but Lam claims she wants to focus on the more urgent issues facing the city. Lam will have to manage a city in turmoil, which has experienced slowing economic growth — mainly down to stagnant consumer spending and exports — along with growing inequalities and skyrocketing housing prices.

NATO tries to spread itself too thin

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meets with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Ankara. Yasin Bulbul/Presidential Palace/Handout via REUTERS

It was an interesting turn of event that saw NATO take a step towards welcoming a new member while two of its major members failed to resolve their opposition in the same week.

The US Senate overwhelmingly backed membership for Macedonia, a tiny and mountainous Balkan state at the heart of a diplomatic tussle between Russia and the West: Russia opposes NATO expansion in the Balkans and has called on Montenegrins to hold a referendum on the matter. Their accession is now subject to Donald Trump’s signature and parliamentary approval from Spain and the Netherlands. That is, assuming Russian efforts to mobilize pro-Kremlin Montenegrin MPs fail — they are alleged of being involved in a November coup attempt.

The next day, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with the intent of discussing plans to resolve the Syrian conflict. This was never going to be an easy trip. The United States supports the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) against the Islamic State in Syria, which the Turkish government identifies as a threat to its own national security because of the group’s connections to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which advocates for an autonomous Kurdistan.

Sensing that Tillerson would not back down, Turkey had announced prior to the meeting that it was ending its military operations in Syria. Washington’s refusal to discuss the issue of Fethullah Gullen’s extradition, who stands accused of orchestrating last year’s attempted coup, or the arrest of Halkbank Deputy General Manager Mehmet Hakan Atilla this week in New York also made this meeting a failure, and highlighted deepening tensions between both NATO partners.

The Meeting:

Football Soccer — World Cup 2018 Qualifiers — South Korea v China — Seoul, South Korea — 01/09/16 — A Chinese supporter wears a head band. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji

For this week’s meeting, we look at a sporting event that highlights both a geopolitical clash and soft power strategy: a soccer game between China and South Korea.

It should have been a simple World Cup qualifier. But ahead of the game, Chinese authorities had to deploy 10,000 police around the stadium in Changsha, the capital of Hunan — Mao Zedong’s home province — to avoid a nationalist backlash should the underdog Chinese fail to overcome their South Korean neighbors. The tension has uneasy echoes of a recent row over South Korea’s deployment of the Thaad anti-missile system which triggered a series of economic sanctions from China and a surge in nationalist sentiment.

Eventually, the Chinese managed to win the night, which will give leader Xi a chance to claim that his efforts to make Chinese soccer count on the international scene are paying off. But reaching the 2018 tournament in Russia remains a remote prospect following a series of humiliating defeats that left the Chinese team soundly at the bottom of their qualification group.

Your Digest:

From trusting the incumbents…

Former Bulgarian prime minister and leader of center-right GERB party Boiko Borisov arrives for a news conference at the party’s headquarters in Sofia, Bulgaria March 26, 2017. REUTERS/Stoyan Nenov

In Bulgaria, former Prime Minister Boyko Borisov won a third term with 32.6% of the votes. However, with 25 seats missing to form a majority, he will now have to negotiate with a set of nationalist parties in order to form a government.

Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, State Minister-President and top candidate of the Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany March 23, 2017. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski

In Germany, Angela Merkel secured a victory in the Saarland State election. With 40.7%, her CDU party beat Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats (29.6%) in what commentators have been calling as a first test ahead of a general election in September.

To prosecuting them

Ousted South Korean President Park Geun-hye arrives for questioning on her arrest warrant at the Seoul Central District Court in Seoul, South Korea, Thursday, March 30, 2017. REUTERS/Ahn Young-Joon/Pool

In South Korea, a court approved a warrant to arrest ousted president Park Geun-hye, the country’s first democratically elected leader to be thrown out of office, on accusations of bribery and abuse of power.

From silencing the opposition…

Law enforcement officers gather as they block opposition supporters in Moscow, Russia, March 26, 2017. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

Following demonstrations against corruption and to demand the resignation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, Russia issued a ban on such protests and arrested hundreds of those involved. Putin’s main opponent Alexei Navalny was fined RUB20,000 by a Moscow court and was sentenced to 15 days in jail for disobeying a police officer.

Law enforcement officers detain a participant of a rally, denouncing the new tax on those not in full-time employment and marking the 99th anniversary of the proclamation of the Belarussian People’s Republic, in Minsk, Belarus, March 25, 2017. REUTERS/Vasily Fedosenko

In Belarus, hundreds were detained in Minsk as the regime took a tough stance against an anti-government march to protest a $230 tax on citizens working less than six months a year, known locally as the tax on “social parasites”.

Or simply ignoring it:

Julio Borges ©, President of the National Assembly holds a teared copy of a sentence of the Venezuela’s Supreme Court as he speaks during a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela March 30, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Despite a renewed call from members of the Organization of American States for a dialogue between Nicolas Maduro’s government and the opposition, the Venezuelan leader is expected to continue to do everything in its power to avoid regime change. The government reacted by having the Supreme Court take over the functions of the opposition-led Congress. Maduro will probably depict the OAS actions — and condemnation of his latest action as a “self-inflicted coup d’etat” — as part of a broader imperialist attack on Venezuela, as the country endures its worst crisis in living memory.

Figure of the week:

$451.3 million — That is the amount the Chinese Super League spent on transfer fees in 2016. China has become the world’s fifth biggest-spender, behind only England, Germany, Spain and Italy. The total spent on transfer fees in the most popular sport worldwide hit $4.8bn, thanks to the Chinese effort to build a world-class national team as part of its strategy to boost its soft power.

Graph of the Week:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2017/03/daily-chart-21

The Economist looks at the events leading up the EU referendum and what happens after Article 50.