Social-Distancing Is a Lost Cause
Why #stayhome advocates are slowly giving up.
It started with group social-distance walks, which grew into social-distance campfires. Then, it transitioned into quarantining as a circle of friends. Now, it’s progressed to the point where social-distancing has lost its meaning. It’s a trend repeating throughout the US, and it’s troubling news.
Although all 50 states are in the process of reopening, most plans depend on people continuing to abide by social-distancing precautions. Plus, most major cities, such as the one I live in, are still under stay-at-home orders. Unfortunately, cooperation is on the decline.
Quarantine fatigue is real, and it’s obvious.
Parks are packed with an entirely new generation of runners and bikers. Sidewalks are swarming with people taking their daily walks. Beaches are brimming with families escaping the heat and monotony of quarantine. One way or another, everyone is desperately trying to cure their cabin fever.
The idea that people are retiring the #stayhome mantra is supported by more than anecdotal evidence alone. Cell phone data, for instance, reveals a surge in movement during the past several weeks. According to one analysis, every state — regardless of policy — is witnessing this trend. So much so, that the IHME coronavirus model, which the White House heavily cites, pointed to the increased mobility as a reason for the higher number of deaths they are projecting.
It wasn’t always this way. March ushered in an avalanche of online activism urging people to stay home and practice social distancing. Many were warriors on that front. There was even shame associated with those who broke these new rules. It was a cultural reset of sorts, and it was working — data shows there was a sharp drop in mobility that continued throughout April. So what changed?
For one, the federal guidelines concerning coronavirus expired at the end of April. Following that, many states started loosening restrictions at their own pace — often against the advice of scientists. As a result, countless companies followed suit and began resuming normal operations. In the end, this patchwork of reactions and the coverage surrounding it created the illusion that things had improved — possibly encouraging people to venture out.
However, this is an unlikely explanation for people who support the lockdowns, believe the science, and generally keep up with the news. They understand the necessity of cooperating, yet they waive the requirement for themselves.
The more probable explanation is that this is the result of systemic failure. The lockdown was supposed to flatten the curve, which it did. However, the lockdown was also supposed to be an extreme, temporary measure to buy governments time to prepare. Time to increase testing, replenish PPE stockpiles, increase hospital capacity, research the virus, set up robust contact tracing programs, and more, so that we could safely reopen. Efforts other, less powerful nations have been able to achieve. Yet, more than three months after the outbreak, the US is still winging it.
The government failed us, and there’s no end in sight.
The president delayed the use of the Defense Production Act, he cherry-picked scientific findings, he floated various conspiracy theories, he silenced scientists, and he turned masks into a political issue. There was hope that the crisis would ground him and halt some of his more dangerous tendencies. Or, at the very least, that the system would be strong enough to protect us from him in such a crisis. We were wrong.
Unfortunately, when progress is non-existent or hard to see, people become disillusioned — they give up. After close to two months of daily death counts exceeding 1,000 and after 100,000 lives lost, people are becoming numb to the toll of this virus, and it doesn’t help that the president is out golfing.
As disappointing as it is, it seems that our attention spans have reached their limits. The combination of a lack of leadership, systematic failure, and disillusionment has contributed to a cognitive dissonance between believing the importance of staying at home and practicing social-distancing versus unnecessarily going out. This phenomenon captures a significant issue confronting containment and mitigation efforts.
Going forward, this decline in cooperation represents an enormous problem. New hotspots are already emerging and — come winter — when hospitals are preoccupied with the flu, there may be a need to re-instate lockdowns. In such a case, full cooperation would be crucial, but we are developing worrisome habits.
The anti-lockdown protesters in Michigan and Pennsylvania get the media coverage, but they’re not representative of the average person’s thoughts — not even in their states. Polls show the vast majority of Americans support the lockdown measures. Instead, the people meeting up with friends and not posting stories about it or the people visiting family and not wearing masks represent the more prominent threat.
There are a handful of anti-lockdown protestors, but an army of people who have quietly convinced themselves the pandemic is over.
States may be eager to reopen, but that doesn’t mean things are “normal.” Much remains unknown about this virus. Your actions still matter. Stay home and stay safe.
