It’s Not the Time For States and Counties To Reopen, and Here’s Why

Summer is coming but let’s not yield to temptation just yet

Millions of Americans are at crowded beaches and public parks this weekend, and many of them aren’t wearing masks or staying six feet apart from their neighbors.

While we Americans take pride in our individualism, we are members of packs, and thousands upon thousands are joining the herd.

All of us care about the US economy, but it’s too soon to reopen it.

As of May 1st, 18 states implemented a partial reopening and several others announced they will reopen soon, but our leading epidemiologists, microbiologists, immunologists, and doctors tell us to remain patient.

The CDC advises states to begin reopening when 10% of a state’s tests come back positive. Fifteen states score a 10% or lower, as of the morning of May 4th. A few states are close, a baker’s dozen have a ways to go, and a handful haven’t reported the outcomes of the tests they’ve administered.

But even if a state has a low percentage of positives, COVID-19 could still spread rampantly in locations where testing is inadequate relative to the size of the outbreak, and according to the latest study by Harvard researchers and STAT, 31 states and the District of Columbia haven’t tested enough. Nineteen states — all but two in the South or the western half of the country — are already doing sufficient testing, the study reports.

The percentage of positive tests and the number of tests administered in a state are not the only two benchmarks states need to consider. The threshold to move to Phase 1 of the federal government’s guidelines includes a continuous 14-day decline in new cases of COVID-19 and in hospitalizations. Many public health officials also recommend states must have enough resources to increase contact tracing before they partially open up, and no state but North Dakota meets the requirements.⁴

Loosening restrictions in individual counties within states with smaller outbreaks—rather than reopening entire states—will mitigate risks, and the Trump administration’s guidelines recommend state and county officials tailor the application of the criteria to local circumstances.

The federal government’s guidelines, like every state’s own protocols, depend on individual Americans. How many of you would travel back and forth between your home and a nearby open county to enjoy the beach or a public park, or to see family and friends? As many as 25% to 50% of the infected are asymptomatic, and the virus will spread from urban to suburban and rural areas when we move from one county to another. Since death toll is a lagging indicator, each state will realize the consequences two to three weeks later, but the forecast is clear.

Based on the advice of public health experts, the US federal government put forth a well-designed, three-phased approach to get people back to work and to continue to protect American lives. Now is the time for governors and local leaders to follow the experts, and for the public to remain patient.