Pressure on North Korea, optimism in Europe, and Trump’s climate decision
In the middle of all this covfefe, we are pleased to announce the launch of the raddingtonreport.com
Raddington Report offers authoritative insight and opinion on global security, politics, economic trends, governance, emerging technologies and culture through cutting-edge analysis and news. It is not enough to report a story — it is even more important to explain the context, motivations, and decision-making behind it. This week we look at the peculation around an upcoming war in North Korea. We also analyze the return of optimism among Europhiles, along with Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris climate deal and the effect of that decision on global politics.
Is war inevitable in North Korea?
The U.S. Navy aircraft carriers USS Ronald Reagan (front) and USS Carl Vinson and (back R) sail with their strike groups and Japanese naval ships during training in the Sea of Japan, June 1, 2017. U.S. Navy/Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Z.A. Landers/Handout via REUTERS
This week, the US Navy announced it will send its third carrier battle group — the USS Nimitz — to waters off the coast of North Korea, in what was meant as a clear sign that Washington is ready for military intervention should Pyongyang keep up its belligerent stance. Despite — or, perhaps, because of — this latest warning, North Korea launched another missile on May 29 which travelled 280 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan.
In the next few weeks, the international community will increase its pressure on North Korea, urging the nation to abandon its nuclear program and allow inspectors to monitor the destruction of its ballistic capabilities. With Pyongyang unlikely to yield to these demands, the US will be very seriously considering military action in order to prevent the development of nuclear capabilities that could be used later on, or sold to third parties with dangerous intent.
Eventually, the decision over war will be made by North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, who will have to choose between strategies that range from saving face — and his own leadership position — by continuing his nuclear program and risking a US strike, to capitulating. He will try to use his Russian and Chinese allies or South Korean fears to avoid having to decide. However, all signs point to a dramatic stand-off further down the line.
Optimism in the EU:
U.S. President Donald Trump © walks past French President Emmanuel Macron (L) and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on his way to his spot for a family photo during the NATO summit at their new headquarters in Brussels, Belgium May 25, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
A few months back, the prospect of further European political integration seemed highly unlikely. The continent faced the election of an unfriendly US President, upcoming negotiations with the UK on Brexit, and a series of worrisome elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany.
But the recent election of Emmanuel Macron in France along with a victory for centrist parties in the Netherlands and polls suggesting Angela Merkel would be reelected in Germany have revived Europhiles’ hopes. Angela Merkel has made waves this week in a speech which said that the era in which Europeans could fully rely on their US and UK partners is over, and called for a more coherent and united Europe to fill the policy and security vacuum left in their absence.
This started with this week’s new attempt to review the euro area, through a strategy paper that proposed a “rainy day fund” for EU governments during downturns and new types of European securities that bundle together government debt. Such reforms have repeatedly failed to gather support outside of Brussels, but the European Commission — which drafted them — is hoping to use the current momentum to gain traction.
Whether Germany will agree to these plans remains doubtful, especially prior to the general election in September. But broader negotiations on the future of the EU at the end of this year will provide a window of opportunity for such deep reforms.
Trump walks away from climate deal:
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to announce his decision that the United States will withdraw from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2017. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts
Donald Trump announced the United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord, in a confirmation of one of his campaign pledges that will please his Republican base and enrage many more. The President described the deal as passed by the Obama administration against the interests of the American people and as unfairly burdensome for the US economy — to the advantage of China and India.
Trump said his administration will try to negotiate a new deal for the US, a country that accounts for more than 15 percent of worldwide total greenhouse gas emissions. However, if terms are not secured to the advantage of the US, Trump has pledged to opt out of any international cooperation on the issue.
Abroad, the decision was seen as the latest evidence that the United States can no longer be trusted to follow through on international commitments. Anticipating Trump’s decision, China and the EU announced they will forge an alliance to take a leading role in tackling climate change. The decision to withdraw is perceived as an abdication of American leadership on global issues, and an opportunity for other political entities such as the EU and China to fill the vacuum.
The Meeting: Macron meets Putin
French President Emmanuel Macron, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the gardens of the Chateau de Versailles Reuters
After a much commented upon handshake with Donald Trump last week, newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron continued his series of meetings with international leaders. This week he received a visit from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In an effort to show strength and to make good on his promise of standing up to Putin, Macron denounced Russian media meddling into democratic elections, calling Russia Today and Sputnik “organs of influence and propaganda” that spread fake news about him during the French presidential campaign.
Both leaders tried to show a more positive face during the press conference by pledging to uphold a continuous dialogue on Ukraine and Syria. But such dialogue is unlikely to produce any breakthrough, given both leaders maintain such entrenched, and opposing, views.
Your digest:
May won’t play along
Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May speaks at a general election campaign event at marketing services group Linney, in Mansfield. REUTERS/Oli Scarff/Pool
UK Prime Minister Theresa May refused to take part in a televised debate ahead of the snap general election that she called on June 8. Instead, she sent Amber Rudd, her Home Secretary and a rising star in the Conservative party. May has been polling high ahead of the vote, but UK polls have shown consistent failures to reliably predict the outcome of the last general election and referendum on Brexit.
Confusing the laptop ban:
FILE PHOTO: A TSA official removes a laptop from a bag for scanning using the Transport Security Administration’s new Automated Screening Lane technology, May 17, 2017. REUTERS/Joe Penney/File Photo
Washington denied reports from Brussels that its plans to extend a ban on carrying laptops on to transatlantic aircraft cabins have been scrapped.
Not giving up:
Pro-government fighter army troops walk in a position they retook from Houthi fighters near the Republican Palace in the northwestern city of Taiz, Yemen May 29, 2017. REUTERS/Stringer
In Yemen, pro-government forces announced that they had captured the Republican Palace in Taiz, as well as its surrounding areas. Taiz has been mired in intense fighting ever since April 2015 when a civil war broke out between Houthi rebels — loyalists supportive of the former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh — and forces aligned with the government of current President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi.
Taking it back:
FILE PHOTO — The front of the U.S. embassy is seen in Tel Aviv, Israel January 20, 2017. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
President Donald Trump has decided not to move the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, in a reversal of one of his foreign policy campaign pledges.
Number of the week:
759 — That’s the number of treaties the U.K. will need to sign with international partners after Brexit, according to Paul McLean of the Financial Times.
Chart of the Week:
UNFCC graphic on the US commitments within the Paris Climate Accord, as agreed under President Obama. The US’s plan, set the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28% by 2025. The baseline level this reduction is measured against is 2005, when the US emitted 6,132 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
Tweets of the Week:
Trump’s new word:
The tweet had been active on Trump’s account without comment or clarification overnight and was not deleted until shortly before 6am the following morning. Trump replaced it with the following Tweet:
Trump’s latest comment on Germany, following his meeting with Merkel.
