Qatar gets left out in the cold; Theresa May loses her bet; Comey drops bombshells
This week, we look at the geopolitical crisis growing around Qatar’s increasing isolation in the Middle East, and we report on former FBI Director Comey’s testimony in the US Senate. We also analyze the shock results of the UK general election.
The leads tracker:
Qatar’s regional isolation:
The balance of power is tipping in the Middle East, following the decision by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Jordan and the Tobruk-based government of Libya to break their diplomatic relations with Qatar. Some countries have also closed their land border, halted air and sea traffic, or imposed a ban on Al Jazeera — Qatar’s main media and channel of influence in the region.
The decision was due to Qatar’s alleged ties with what they consider terrorist organizations, including the Muslim Brotherhood, the Taliban, Hamas, and al-Qaeda, following a comment by Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in which he proclaimed support for Iran, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. The isolation will put pressure on the Qatari economy, and particularly on food imports and state-linked Qatar Airways.
But what the moves also reveal is a coordinated effort by a part of the Gulf Cooperation Council to push Qatar to align with Saudi Arabia and come out in opposition to Iran. The Saudis’ hand has been strengthened lately, as the US administration announced its support for the development of an Arab NATO of Sunni nations. However, the US has offered Qatar help in resolving the diplomatic crisis, and Turkey also reiterated its support by sending troops to a Turkish military base being built in the country.
Theresa May’s gamble backfires:
British Prime Minister Theresa’s gamble to increase her party’s influence in the country’s parliament difficult negotiations on Brexit has not paid off. Her Conservative party has won only 318 seats in the House of Commons. The party has lost 13 seats in total — a great deal considering they did not have much leeway to begin with. She called the election from a position of strength: Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing Labour party was facing an electoral wipeout, and polls suggested a Conservative landslide on a scale not seen since that won by Margaret Thatcher in 1983.
Her defeat is in no small part down to poor campaign performance — refusing to take part in debates, and making embarrassing U-turns over manifesto promises that played badly among her party’s base — as well as the recent terrorist attacks that shone a light on her performance as Home Secretary, the senior minister in charge of matters of national security, a post that she held from 2010 to 2016. In contrast, Labour has won 262 seats, up 321 on 2015’s election which saw previous leader Ed Miliband forced to resign. The Liberal Democrats, the only major party in favor of stopping Brexit outright, won 12 seats. North of the border, the Scottish National Party, led by Nicola Sturgeon, did not manage to repeat its shock 2015 result, when it managed to win 54 of Scotland’s 56 seats. Instead, it lost 19 seats, putting Sturgeon’s calls for a second Scottish independence referendum on hold for the time being.
Theresa May has asked the Queen for her permission to form a government, bolstered by the far-right DUP’s 10 seats — cementing a long-standing gentleman’s agreement with the Northern Irish unionist party, which is no stranger to controversies. However, she has the slimmest of majorities, and her position, both at home and in Brussels, is far from strong or stable.
The Meeting: Comey’s testimony
This week’s meeting was a big one — Former FBI director James Comey met the Senate Intelligence Committee to give testimony on Russian interference in the 2016 elections. Comey asserted that his firing because of the agency’s investigation of Russian interference in the Clinton-Trump election. This will build the case for some Democratic Congressman to try to impeach Donald Trump over an obstruction of justice.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin had denied that Moscow had colluded with members of Trump’s campaign team before the new administration took office. He said that allegations Russia had influenced the 2016 presidential election in favor of Trump reminded him of anti-Semitism and blaming the Jews.
Your Digest:
From fortifying a victory…
French President Emanuel Macron’s En Marche Party is expected to win an outright majority in parliamentary elections, the two rounds of which take place between June 11 and 18.
To preparing for a close bulletin:
The lower chamber of the Italian Parliament started discussing a reform of the country’s electoral law, which once adopted would open the way for a snap election by the end of the year. The plan would introduce a system of proportional representation which would distribute seats according to the percentage of overall votes political parties receive. Polls suggest such a system would fail to produce strong majorities — the anti-establishment 5 Star Movement and the Democratic Party would both net around 30% of the vote.
Or preparing for a preordained one:
Venezuela’s government will hold elections for a new Constitutional Assembly on July 30. Fresh and ferocious clashes erupted between security forces and protesters in Caracas, taking the death toll from unrest since April to at least 66.
Alarming victories:
With just 33.7 percent of the vote, Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party narrowly won Mexico State’s governorship. Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for July 2018, the political competition is intensifying in the country.
In a local election in Cambodia, the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) is said to have won 70% of the country’s 1,646 commune councils, according to a pro-government media outlet. The opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) only won 482 communes, but scooped 46% of the popular vote in what was also perceived as a preview for the 2018 general elections.
Latest NATO expansion:
President Trump will find it harder to shove Montenegro out the way now — the Balkan state has become the 29th member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, prompting threats of retaliation from Moscow. With this new member, NATO now covers the entire northern shore of the Mediterranean, apart from an insignificant strip of Bosnian coast.
Terror watch:
· Gunmen launched simultaneous attacks on Iran’s parliament building and the mausoleum of Ayatollah Khomeini in southern Tehran. Notably, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for both attacks. This is the first time Iran has been struck by the terrorist group.
· Australian police killed a gunman named Yacqub Khayre, who had killed a man inside an apartment foyer and held a woman hostage. The Islamic State had claimed responsibility for the attack.
· London saw another terrorist attack, which started with a vehicular assault on London Bridge and continued with stabbings in Borough Market, killing eight people and injuring nearly 50 others.
· In a Casino resort in Manilla, an armed assailant fired shots in the air before setting fire to several casino tables and killing 37 people. President Duterte denied that the Islamic State was behind the attack, although the organization claimed responsibility for it.
· Police shot a man outside the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris on June 6 after he attacked an officer with a hammer.
· In Somalia, Al Shabaab fighters attacked a military base in the northern region of Puntland, killing around 70 people.
Fighting terror:
The operation to retake the city of Raqqa from the Islamic State has officially begun. This marks new phase of the offensive following previous efforts to isolate IS by surrounding Raqqa on three sides.
Figure of the week:
14 — That’s the number of Venezuelan army officers that were jailed on suspicion of rebellion and treason by the Maduro government when protests first began in April.
Graphic of the week:
The Economist’s infographics on the skewed distribution of seats in the UK government over the past six parliamentary elections due to the country’s First Past The Post electoral system — the results from the 2015 election are displayed below.
Tweets of the week:
Emmanuel Macron reacts to Trump’s decision to pull out of the Paris Climate accord.
Trump announces his new pick for the position of Director of the FBI, as former Director Comey was getting ready to testify in the Senate.
