The Debt Limit Could Save the Reconciliation Bill
Why Democrats should include the measure in their reconciliation bill.
Throughout most of the summer and into the fall, Democrats have been stuck conducting a high-stakes balancing act as they try to pass two major pieces of legislation. Against all odds, the plan seemed to be working at first. The Senate passed its hard infrastructure bill and Speaker Pelosi was holding that bill hostage in an effort to force the party’s more centrist members in the House and Senate to go along with the larger human infrastructure reconciliation bill — just as she and Senate Majority Leader Schumer had promised in late June.
Unfortunately, this plan hit a snag in late August when a small group of House Democrats refused to pass the budget resolution required to begin the reconciliation process until they received assurance from Pelosi that she would put the hard infrastructure bill up for a vote by September 27th. This created a tight deadline for passage of the reconciliation bill since Pelosi planned to stick with her promise of passing the larger human infrastructure bill first in order to appease the party’s progressive wing.
Although the deal wasn’t binding, it appears the moderates are not bluffing — with Politico reporting that Sen. Sinema told Pres. Biden that she “won’t back a reconciliation bill” if the House does not vote on and pass the hard infrastructure bill next week. Effectively confirming that she, along with other conservative Democrats, is willing to kill the hostage — the very bill she helped craft in the Senate.
Again, it is important to remember that this can all be avoided if Democrats are able to produce a final agreed upon reconciliation bill that they can vote on by September 27th. However, this seems very unlikely considering there are numerous major points of contention and Sen. Manchin is even suggesting a vote on the bill be delayed until 2022.
Therefore, if centrist and conservative Democrats, like Sinema and Manchin, are to be believed, Pelosi has no option but to put the hard infrastructure bill up for a vote and pray that the progressive wing of her caucus does not vote it down or enough Republicans support it to make up for the lost Democratic support. Both of these are highly unlikely.
So the question becomes: How do you get the progressives to vote for the infrastructure bill and then how do you get the moderates to pledge their support for the reconciliation bill without any leverage?
The answer is: You threaten to tank the US economy if the larger human infrastructure bill is not passed by linking it to the looming debt ceiling crisis.
With Republicans refusing to help Democrats raise the limit in a bipartisan fashion, like it has always been done, and the current continuing resolution bill all but certain to fail, it’s clear that Democrats will eventually have to deal with this problem on their own, so why not use it to their advantage.
For weeks now, Republicans have been arguing that Democrats can raise the debt limit by themselves through reconciliation. While this is true, it’s also a thinly veiled political ploy designed to open Democrats to attacks about spending come 2022. Moreover, in order to include it in reconciliation, Democrats would likely have to put an actual figure on the increase instead of simply suspending the ceiling, which would add fuel to the attack ads.
Still, there is a silver lining to this approach.
With the Democrats divided and the centrists having pushed the party into a position where everything is on the verge of collapse, this could be the leverage that is needed to force the centrists to support the reconciliation bill and the assurance that progressives need in order to allow the passage of the hard infrastructure bill first. Plus, it has the added advantage of a clear deadline.
Granted, this is all assuming that all Democrats will refuse to allow the US to default on its debt, but that seems like a fair assumption considering the catastrophic implications of allowing that to happen and the numerous statements that Democratic leaders have made in the past affirming that position.
Nonetheless, this is a major risk and a huge concession to the Republican, but Democrats need to decide whether the passage of these two bills and their agenda is more important than any attacks they may encounter in the future. It’s not an easy move, but the choice should be clear.
