Trump the sore loser might be the bigger threat
“If the election is rigged, I would not be surprised” — Donald Trump (August 2nd 2016)
In the fall out of every presidential election since at least 2000 the losing side has made claims of fraud and a rigged election. Everyone knows about the Florida debacle, but in 2004 leftist activists claimed that Ohio was stolen; in 2008 the specter of ACORN became a talking point before and after the election; and in 2012 right-wing groups made claims of fraud basically everywhere there were votes.
In each of these cases though, candidates gracefully bowed out of the race (a fact that still upsets some Gore supporters). Although there were a few elites that endorsed these claims, the vast majority of claims were ignored by both mainstream media and by party elites, much to the chagrin of many activists. 2016 though is looking to be very different.
Donald Trump has already started to drum up fears that the election is going to be rigged. During the primary season Trump was quick to argue that systems were rigged whenever he began to lose states. In Colorado, the caucus system was supposedly “rigged against him.” He threatened to sue when he didn’t receive a majority of delegates in Louisiana. And after the Wisconsin primary he claimed illegal coordination between Cruz and Cruz’s Super PAC led to his loss.
“I don’t know why we’re not leading by a lot. Maybe crowds don’t make the difference” — Donald Trump (August 3rd 2016)
It is hard to believe that Trump won’t make similar arguments if he loses in the general election. He has started already to lay the foundation of how any election that doesn’t go his way must be rigged. Not only has he questioned the whole electoral process, but he has also started to again draw attention to the size of his crowds as indication that he must be winning. This is similar to what he did in the primaries, where he would yell at the media during his rally for not showing how big his crowds were. This not only inflates Trump’s ego, but also the egos of his supporters. They see themselves as part of a sweeping majority that has to win.
So what happens in November if Donald Trump, angry that he hasn’t won, starts going on television to claim that the election was rigged? Based on the campaign so far we know that all of Trump’s surrogates will repeat these talking points no matter what they might be. His surrogates so far have been entirely unopposed to backtracking on anything that Trump says, and some, like Roger Stone, are willing to extend things even further.
“ If there’s voter fraud, this election will be illegitimate, the election of the winner will be illegitimate, we will have a constitutional crisis, widespread civil disobedience, and the government will no longer be the government.” — Roger Stone, Trump Adviser (August 2nd 2016)
What this threatens is the very foundation of a democratic system: the belief, by voters, that voting is a meaningful act. Although we are all aware that most Americans have poor views of the output of democratic processes (at least as far as Congress is concerned) Americans aren’t as negative on the democratic process as a whole, believing that electoral institutions are a valid and useful way to put forward policy. Pew has frequently asked voters if they agree with: “ Voting gives people like me some say about how government runs things.” From 2002 to 2012 the majority of individuals either reported that they completely or mostly agree with this statement. There was a slight shift in the last few polls of voters being less likely to “completely agree” and more likely to only “somewhat agree” but it is, in general a rosy picture.
Since 2012 Pew has stopped asking this question, but in 2015 they asked something similar: “Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right? Voting gives people like me some say about how government runs things. Voting by people like me doesn’t really affect how government runs things.” Again the majority (58%) of voters believed that voting did give them a say, whereas only 39% believed voting didn’t have any affect on government.
The American National Election Survey (ANES) has been asking a somewhat similar question since the 1960s. Instead of asking if voting gives voters a say, the question is framed more around if voting makes government accountable: “How much do you feel that having elections makes the government pay attention to what the people think?”
Although the majority of Americans continue to respond with either a “good deal” or “some”, there has been a steady shift over time. Respondents have become more likely to report that elections provide only some accountability for government. The percentage of respondents saying voting does not matter very much has fluctuated but not changed very drastically, at least not until 2012. The 2012 survey, perhaps presaging this moment, saw a very sharp increase in the percentage of respondents that believed elections had very little effect.
Trump’s belief that elections are captured and rigged for the interest of the elites, is likely to continue to dismantle voters’ views of elections as being a credible way to make their voices heard. Although the days after November 2016 are likely to not lead to widespread riots (as Roger Stone seems to imply), what Trump does will potentially have repercussions for how Americans view the electoral process as a whole.
