UK snap election, French presidential vote, and Turkey-EU relations

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8 min readApr 21, 2017

This week we analyze British Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call snap elections, and we look at the main candidates in the French presidential election, which begins on Sunday. We also take a look at the increasingly frosty relationship between Turkey and the EU, following Erdogan’s referendum victory.

The UK goes to the polls once again:

Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a speech to Conservative Party members to launch their election campaign in Walmsley Parish Hall, Bolton, Britain April 19, 2017. REUTERS/Andrew Yates

Shortly after notifying the EU of its decision to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the British Prime Minister Theresa May has decided to call a general election on June 8. The decision comes as little surprise given May’s lack of electoral mandate — unlike her predecessor David Cameron, she came to power as a result of a Conservative Party leadership contest which ended in shambles, leaving May the last candidate not to drop out. Her Conservative Party has only a slender majority and Brexit is tearing it apart at the seams.

The timing for assessing her authority could not be better, first because the economy seems to have recovered following the pound’s dramatic slump after the results of the referendum were announced. May also believes the political timing to be ideal, given the current weakness of opposition parties. According to recent polling, the Tories have a 21-point lead over the Labour Party, which is divided over Brexit and led by the contentious Jeremy Corbyn. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats are lagging further behind at 11%.

But the campaign might not go as smoothly as May expects. It is near certain that the debate over the coming six weeks will be dominated by Brexit, and the Lib Dems are likely to campaign on a platform that seeks to mitigate the effects of the referendum. Should May fail to strengthen her majority, the UK’s Conservative-led negotiating team would come to talks with the EU from a position of weakness. And despite solid polling numbers now, if 2016 has taught political commentators anything, it’s that they should take psephologists’ predictions with a hefty pinch of salt.

Europe holds its breath as the French vote:

The eleven French presidential election candidates take part in a special political television show entitled ‘15min to Convince’ at the studios of French Television channel France 2 in Saint-Cloud, near Paris, April 20, 2017. REUTERS/Martin Bureau/Pool

The first round of the French presidential election on Sunday, which will culminate with a run-off on May 7, is set to produce an unprecedented outcome that will most likely re-shape the political landscape. While 11 candidates are officially running, only four of them are seen to stand a chance. Notably, the short list does not include Benoit Hamon, of the Socialist Party — the party of incumbent François Hollande. Hamon’s polling has collapsed in recent weeks, and Emmanuel Macron, a former Economy Minister in Hollande’s cabinet who has stepped outside party lines to create an independent political movement, is considered Hollande’s true successor.

Among the top four candidates, Macron is the only one who has never been elected to any political office. But he is not the only novelty: all four candidates are now polling above 20% and the outcome of Sunday’s vote remains highly uncertain. Other candidates include François Fillon, the Republican candidate, whose advocacy of a bitter austerity medicine was overshadowed by a slew of corruption allegations that came to be known as Penelopegate during the campaign. The two remaining candidates, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen, both defend anti-austerity measures and renegotiating France’s membership in the EU and Eurozone — or alternatively leaving if negotiations are not successful.

It should come as no surprise that with such a close race, EU members are anxious to see a second round pitting Mélenchon and Le Pen against one another, splitting the Eurosceptic vote.

EU-Turkey relations grow frosty

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters in Istanbul, Turkey, April 16, 2017. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

Turkey has a new sultan. Recep Tayip Erdogan’s victory in last Sunday’s referendum on constitutional reforms will allow the leader to concentrate powers into his hands until at least 2029. For EU leaders, his victory is a troubling blow to democracy in the state, and puts Turkey’s accession to the EU in jeopardy. Brussels’ first reaction was to condemn what they perceive as a drift towards authoritarianism.

During the campaign, Ankara had already put an implicit end to its membership bid, comparing the Netherlands to Nazi Germany after the state refused to sanction rallies in favor of the reforms. On the day of the vote, the validity of the vote was called into question by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) which criticized a last-minute decision by Turkish electoral authorities to allow unstamped ballots to be counted. The final blow to Turkey’s accession negotiations came the next day when Erdogan pledged to organize a referendum on reinstating the death penalty, which is a clear red line for Brussels and would officially end accession talks. Erdogan has also hinted at a referendum on EU accession, and on Wednesday arrested a dozen members of Turkey’s political opposition as a new crackdown began on those questioning the legitimacy of a referendum.

In any case, Erdogan long since uses the question of EU membership as a way of reigniting Turkish nationalism as something defined in contrast to pan-European integration based on Western democratic values. It is probable that the EU never really intended to invite Turkey in its inner circle. But for Ankara, putting distance between Turkey and the EU does not mean isolation. Turkey will safeguard economic ties with the EU, safe in the knowledge that the EU needs to keep them on side in order to control migrant flows and contain the threat of ISIS.

The Meeting: Pence in East Asia

U.S. Vice President Mike Pence meets with Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon

American Vice-President Mike Pence started a ten-day tour to the Asia-Pacific region, with an itinerary which includes meetings with heads of state, lawmakers and business communities in South Korea, Japan, Indonesia and Australia. The main purpose of the visit will be to reaffirm US commitment to its Eastern partners’ security in the face of rising North Korean belligerence, as displayed by last week-end’s military parade that ended in another missile test on April 16 at the Mayang-do test facility.

Speaking from the deck of the USS Ronald Reagan, Pence warned that Washington would counter any North Korean attack with an “overwhelming and effective” response.

Your Digest:

New IS attack in Paris:

Police secure the Champs Elysee Avenue after a shooting incident in Paris, France, April 20, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann

A machine gun attack on the Champs-Elysées left one policeman dead, two others seriously wounded and another person injured. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack which took place just days before the first round of the French presidential election. The gunman was killed in the attack and French police are reported to be hunting a second suspect. Security forces were fully mobilized ahead of Sunday’s vote, with two men also arrested this week under suspicions of planning an attack on a presidential candidate.

Bluffing?

Paraguay’s President Horacio Cartes attends a meeting with political leaders in Asuncion, Paraguay April 5, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Adorno

Paraguayan President Horacio Cartes said he would not run for another term in the country’s 2018 presidential race, regardless of whether Congress amends the constitution — as he wishes — to allow a second term.

Maduro tightens his grip

Riot police take positions during the so called ‘mother of all marches’ against Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas, Venezuela, April 19, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro tightened security measures ahead of a major national protest. During a protest labelled “the mother of all marches” in Caracas, two students were killed as members of the Bolivarian police and the national guard dispersed thousands of protesters from the opposition.

Lebanese political stalemate:

Lebanon’s President Michel Aoun is pictured at the Presidential Palace in Baabda, Lebanon April 12, 2017. Dalati Nohra/Handout via Reuters

Lebanese President Michel Aoun announced that he was suspending the National Assembly for a month. The assembly was expected to meet the next day to grant itself a third four-year extension of its term. Aoun’s move can buy him time in which to help resolve the country’s long political stalemate, as he keeps pushing for electoral reform.

Poland’s “witch hunt”

European Council president and former Polish prime minister Donald Tusk arrives at Warsaw railway station on the way to the prosecutor’s office © Reuters

European Council President Donald Tusk claims he was the victim of a “political witch hunt” as he was summoned to give evidence in Warsaw about alleged collusion between the Polish security services and Russia.

Indonesia elects the country’s number two:

Candidate Anies Baswedan casts his vote in the Jakarta governor election in South Jakarta, Indonesia April 19, 2017. REUTERS/Beawiharta

According to early results, former cabinet minister Anies Baswedan won a polarizing election for the Jakarta governorship — generally considered to be the most influential civilian political position in Indonesia and second only to the President. He beat incumbent Basuki “Ahok” Tjahaja Purnama, who had the backing of President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, and will lead Indonesia’s center of economic and political power. The campaign was dominated by religious politics in the Muslim dominated country, and featured mass rallies led by a hardline Islamist movement.

Figure of the Week

17 — That’s the number of months left for Brexit negotiations thanks to election-related delays. British Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call elections seems more like a timely tactical move to gather personal legitimacy than a wise strategy for the country further down the line.

Infographics of the week: