Washington and Moscow spar over Syria and Pyongyang rattles sabers
This week we look at the Trump administration’s shifting commitments, including a showdown with Moscow over Syria, and a closer relationship with China as Washington tries to force Pyongyang to end their nuclear program. We also dive into the ins and outs of Turkey’s upcoming referendum
The leads tracker:
A US-Russia showdown
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrive for a news conference following their talks in Moscow, Russia, April 12, 2017. REUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin
The row between the US and Russia on Syria came to a head prior to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s visit to Moscow. Following the US strike on a Syrian airbase in retribution for Bashar al-Assad’s gas attack killing 85 in the rebel-held city of Khan Sheikhoun, Russia suspended its agreement to stay at arm’s length from the conflict. The Kremlin also continued to argue that chemical attacks were a false flag operation, conducted by rebels in order to concoct outrage against the Assad regime.
It came as no surprise when Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution demanding that Assad’s government cooperate with an investigation into the attack. G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy condemned Moscow’s support for Assad, although they did not agree to impose further sanctions on Russia. Interestingly, NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was received by Donald Trump, who admitted to rethinking his position on NATO’s obsolescence, given recent events.
Eventually, Tillerson’s visit to Moscow — where he met with Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, and Vladimir Putin — succeeded in re-opening a dialogue for putting the Russian deescalation agreement back on track. But overall, the row intensifies pressure on Trump to review his initial desire to thaw an icy US-Russia relationship, and gives further credence to the efficacy of the US’ Western alliances.
North Korean crisis goes nuclear
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends an opening ceremony of a newly constructed residential complex in Ryomyong street in Pyongyang, North Korea April 13, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
The meeting between Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping narrowly averted a trade war that the US President had been threatening during his election campaign — China struck a 100-day plan that offered concessions on, among other things, finance and beef. But this week’s conversations between US and Chinese officials focused on a threat of a very different nature: North Korea’s worrying belligerence.
Following the sudden rerouting of the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group toward the Korean Peninsula, Japan and South Korea expressed concern that the US was preparing to act unilaterally, which they feared could derail joint efforts to wind down Pyongyang’s nuclear program. North Korean leadership was quick to react with a warning of a nuclear attack on the US at the slightest sign of aggression, while observers warn of a nuclear test linked to the upcoming celebration of the 105th anniversary of the birth of regime founder Kim Il Sung. The White House has pledged to solve the crisis, regardless of whether or not China helps.
Improving economic and diplomatic ties with China increasing appears to be key to Washington’s strategy. Washington knows that it grows increasingly difficult to plan a military campaign to eliminate the North Korean nuclear entire program, given the absence of credible intelligence on the hermit state. Therefore, Trump has reversed course on his previous stance that China manipulates its currency, and the White House hopes that Beijing will repay them by reassessing its position on North Korea.
The strategy is starting to pay off, with a prominent Chinese state-run newspaper warning Pyongyang that it faces having its oil supplies cut off if it dares test a nuclear weapon. But China is likely to resist imposing sanctions and applying too much pressure until a crisis is imminent — but an interview given by Trump in which he announced the US was “sending an armada far more powerful than the aircraft carrier” suggests that the crisis might be already be imminent.
Turkey at a crossroads
People walk past by campaign tents for the constitutional referendum in Istanbul, Turkey, April 11, 2017. REUTERS/Murad Sezer
This Sunday, Turkey will hold a referendum on constitutional reforms with significant consequences. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the ruling AKP Party, who has led the country since 2003, is asking his people to allow him to consolidate his power by abandoning their parliamentary system for an executive presidency. Reforms include stripping Parliament of powers to investigate and remove confidence in ministers, giving the President the ability to propose the annual budget, allowing the president to remain in office until 2029, and replacing the Prime Minister with a vice-president. Effectively, the reforms will turn Turkish politics into a winner takes all system without checks and balances.
Erdogan uses security to justify his sweeping reforms, with Turkey facing the Syrian crisis to the South and a struggle with Kurdish nationalists, and the attempted coup in July that was followed swiftly by a witch hunt against Ankara’s political opponents, the judiciary, military and civil society. Erdogan intends to fuel nationalist sentiment, but this may not be enough to gain support from a majority of Turkish people. Those living outside the country — 1.4 million of whom are in Europe — may have been distressed by Erdogan’s comments comparing the Netherlands to Nazi Germany when they refused to permit a rally in support of Erdogan’s reforms. Turkey’s floundering economy will also likely disadvantage Erdogan. The country has high levels of dollar-denominated debt and its currency is weakening fast.
Polls suggest a close vote. Should the reforms pass, Erdogan will probably continue to take his country on an increasingly illiberal route diverging from the EU, although his country’s dependency on European trade will keep him from breaking Turkey’s agreement on refugees in the short term. Should Erdogan lose, he could be well further his crack-down in order to save face before his next attempt to grab power.
The meeting: NATO’s reprieve
U.S. President Donald Trump (R) and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg shake hands during a joint news conference in the East Room at the White House in Washington, U.S., April 12, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited US President Donald Trump to discuss the future of the North-Atlantic Treaty Organization. In a notable U-turn from his campaign position on the military alliance, Trump said he no longer not considered NATO obsolete. He added that NATO was adapting to the broader fight against Islamic militants, and thanked its members for their support of US strikes in Syria last week.
The meeting came the day after Trump approved Montenegro’s ascension into the alliance, which also sent a message to Moscow that Washington was willing to push back against Russian attempts to increase influence in Europe.
Your Digest:
Terror watch:
The aftermath of an explosion that took place at a Coptic church on Sunday in Tanta, Egypt, April 9, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany
In Egypt, the Islamic State claimed responsibility for two bomb attacks at Christian churches that killed at least 44 people attending Palm Friday services. Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi reacted by starting of a three-month nationwide state of emergency along with the establishment of a Supreme Anti-Terrorism Council granted unspecified powers to shape a wide range of media and religious discourse. The moves come a week after Trump reiterated his support for the Egyptian strongman, and will likely trigger a new wave of criticism from human rights activists who have condemned al-Sisi’s crackdown on political opposition.
Policemen guard next to the court before the detention hearing of the suspect in Friday’s attack in Stockholm, Sweden April 11, 2017. REUTERS/Anna Ringstrom
Sweden joined the list of European countries facing up to terror when a truck driver mowed down pedestrians on a Stockholm shopping street, killing four people. Swedish authorities arrested a 39-year-old Uzbek man previously known to Swedish intelligence services as a marginal figure with no clear links to extremist groups, although the suspect later admitted to committing an act of terror.
Police with the Borussia Dortmund team bus after an explosion near their hotel before the game Reuters / Kai Pfaffenbach Livepic
In Germany, the bus transporting soccer team Borussia Dortmund was bombed on its way to a match, injuring one of the players. German prosecutors later issued an arrest warrant against a suspected Islamic extremist, who is a known member of the Islamic State in Iraq where he led a commando unit of 10 members involved in kidnappings, smuggling, extortion and killings.
The dismantling of a terrorist group:
People walk in front of a wall graffiti with a Basque flag painted on of a house in the center of Bayonne, southwestern France, April 7, 2017. Words reads: ‘The People want to live’. REUTERS/Regis Duvignau
ETA, a Basque militant group, led French authorities to the sites where its remaining weapons, explosives and ammunition had been hidden. This puts an official end to an armed separatist campaign that had lasted almost half a century, and marks the end of separatist terrorism in Europe.
Maduro under pressure:
Demonstrators clash with riot police while ralling against Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro’s government in Caracas, Venezuela April 10, 2017. REUTERS/Christian Veron
In Venezuela, protests have mounted against the Nicolas Maduro amid a punishing economic crisis and what is perceived as the unpopular leftist leader’s lurch into dictatorship. The opposition is now putting up its most determined challenge in years, organizing daily protests during which several people have been killed and five arrested for throwing “sharp objects” against Maduro’s vehicle.
Ahmadinejad returns:
Ex-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reacts as he submits his name for registration as a candidate in Iran’s presidential election, in Tehran, Iran April 12, 2017. Tasnim News Agency/Handout via REUTERS
In Iran, former President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has registered to run again for the nation’s presidency, in an unexpected decision that defied a request not to run from the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Whether or not Ahmadinejad will end up running remains uncertain, however — the Guardian Council could still disqualify him from the race. If this is the case, the former leader could intend to throw more support behind Hamid Baghaei, his former vice president, ahead of elections on May 19.
Greece makes bailout commitments:
Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reacts before his meeting with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier at his office in Maximos Mansion in Athens, Greece, April 7, 2017. REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis
The Greek government reached an agreement with its creditors on the reforms it will need to implement as part of the country’s latest bailout, including cuts to its pension system in 2019 and tax reforms in 2020, for after the next general elections. However, negotiators did not address the disbursement of the next tranche of financial aid, participation of the IMF or debt relief measures.
Figure of the week:
51 million — That will be the size of Japan’s population by 2115, according to a forecast by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. That would be a drop from 127m today, and a predicted 88m by 2065, which increases pressure on the Japanese government to find a solution to its looming demographic crisis.
Map of the Week:
