Extreme Weather in Europe
There has been so much extreme weather, with disastrous unprecedented impacts, everywhere in the world including in Europe, that it has been difficult to keep up with sharing and reflecting on this news.
We are in a time when six of nine planetary boundaries have been breached, and most of the control variables for the boundaries are moving away from the safe operating space. Climate Change is the most serious boundary because of its impacts across the whole Earth system and humanity. The intensity and scale of the extreme heat in America and floods in Europe have shocked climate scientists, who did not expect records to be broken this much, over such a wide area or this soon. Tipping points are being reached. For example, the Amazon rainforest now emits more CO2 than it absorbs.
COP26, hosted by the UK in November 2021, aims to continue holding nations to account to their Paris Agreement promises, but most nations’ plans are inadequate to stabilise the temperature increase between 1.5C and 2C. 2C has been wrongly seen by some as an upper safe limit and it now appears that 1.5C is not safe either. The Paris Agreement was based on the IPCC 5th Assessment which had been watered down due to pressure from high-emitting nations. The actions from the Agreement are in no way adequate to mitigate or adapt to the emerging climate catastrophe in ways that will bring justice for the most affected people. The latest evidence suggests that the Paris targets will be insufficient to prevent a Hothouse Earth pathway. The leaked 2022 IPCC 6th Assessment predicts a ferocious century of climate impacts, particularly in poor countries.
A heating climate results in weather characterised by temperature anomalies and extreme events in unlikely places and seasons, not in steadily warming amenable weather. Meteorologist Scott Duncan explains and visualises these anomalies. For example, the image above shows the current stark divide between unseasonal coolness and extreme heat diagonally across Europe.
This disruption corresponds to the disruption of the Polar Vortex (for the Northern Hemisphere). The Polar Vortex is a band of reliably strong wind that normally keeps cold air to the North and warmer air to the South. The image on the left shows the weakening or disruption to the Vortex in January 2021. It should be held in a more stable formation, but it became wobbly and ‘off the mark’, most likely due to reduced sea ice and a warmer polar region. This played a role in extreme cold weather hitting places that wouldn’t normally experience it, further south.
It’s Summer, and strange deadly weather patterns are continuing. There have been ongoing deadly heatwaves (or heat domes) in America and Canada. Death Valley registered 54.4C, the highest recorded temperature on Earth. Large fires are continuing and the air quality across America is extremely poor, due to the smoke. See our piece about Extreme Heat in North America, from June 2021. Currently there is extreme heat in the Mediterranean, causing terrible forest fires in Turkey and Greece, as well as Italy and North Macedonia. In Athens, fires are threatening historic sites such as the original Olympics site and the Acropolis. In Turkey fire is closing in on a power station. Fires are in tourist areas. Fires are burning farm animals, people and many homes.
In July 2021, catastrophic floods affected Germany, Belgium and Austria. Parts of Germany were drowned with 148 litres per square metre of rain within 48 hours. Much less serious, but still unprecedented, in London last week (and a couple of weeks before that) we experienced major flash floods in multiple locations. See this video for a compilation of clips. See the dramatic footage of water filling up an underground station at Stratford.
This Q&A from The Guardian explains the links between floods and global heating, for example: “As the atmosphere gets warmer it holds more moisture which brings more rain.” It explains the uncertainty over whether or not the disruptions to the jet stream are linked to this extreme weather. The records are so extreme that it seems to be a strong likely cause. Climate models predicted that extreme weather incidents would be more frequent and severe due to anthropogenic global warming (AGW), in part due to disruptions of the jet stream. While still holding onto their caution, climate scientists are shocked, as they had not expected records to be broken this much, so soon or over such a large area.
Yesterday (August 5th, 2021) it was reported that there are warning signs of the complete loss of stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that powers the Gulf Stream: “Such an event would have catastrophic consequences around the world, severely disrupting the rains that billions of people depend on for food in India, South America and West Africa; increasing storms and lowering temperatures in Europe; and pushing up the sea level off eastern North America. It would also further endanger the Amazon rainforest and Antarctic ice sheets”.
Ed Hawkins (he of the warming stripes) has requested that media companies don’t amplify the caution from scientists, which results in media downplaying the link between AGW and extreme weather. He suggests they use this phrase: “Experts say that climate change is already increasing the frequency of extreme weather events, and many single events have been shown to have been made worse by global warming.”
Do you have something to say about any of these single events, or about the patterns and warning signs emerging? This Extreme Weather Stories project exists as a platform to capture experiences and views of people affected by extreme weather, or interested in the science and how we deal with its impacts. Please get in touch if you would like to be added as an author, or write a piece for us to share here. Email on climatemuseumuk@gmail.com
