Will this crypto cycle be the final one to make life-changing gains?
The cryptocurrency market has shown circular behavior since 2011. Green-green-green-red. We’ve had red in 2022. The next two to three years could be crucial for significant growth opportunities.
“To know what you know you know, and to not know what you do not know. That is true knowledge.” — Confucius
This quote, written over 2500 years ago, summarizes June 2023 like an encyclopedia on a single leaflet.
TL;DR:
- The cryptocurrency market has shown circular behavior since 2011. Green-green-green-red. We’ve had red in 2022. The next two to three years could be crucial for significant growth opportunities.
- However, the same market is adapting to regulatory changes, offering traders a unique, final window of opportunity.
- Opportunities for the circle currently lie in farming airdrops, global economic sentiment and anticipating political events. Remember, the 2024 Presidential elections. Spoiler: We have a pro-Bitcoiner among them!
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Circular motion explained
Bitcoin fell under the psychological halfway mark of $25k due to uncertainty with Binance and Coinbase. The SEC sued them for selling unregistered securities to the public. However, within the same week, BlackRock filed for an ETF named the ‘iShares Bitcoin fund’, spiking a runup to over $30k within 5 days, and potentially providing crypto bulls the ammo they need for a runup in the summer.
Like the final chapter in a superb novel, FED chairman Jerome Powell tied everything together by stating that ‘Cryptocurrencies appear to have staying power’, categorizing them as a type of asset.
That’s how I got to the title of this post. Are these legislations, rules, and regulations going to take away the guns, cowboy hats, and dynamite from the Wild West we know the crypto scene to be? Will this market turn into a slow-moving, forex-esque snooze fest with gains slower than your granddad’s pension fund that got zoo morphed as it slithers into a snail race?
I used the word encyclopedia earlier because of its origin from the Greek ‘enkyklios paideia’, referring to the general education of young Greek boys in a complete circle. A full, all-round system of learning. The successes of the global cryptocurrency market work in a similar circular motion.
2011, 2012, and 2013 were green. 2014 was red. Repeat circle.
2015, 2016, and 2017 were green. 2018 was red. Repeat circle.
2019, 2020, and 2021 were green. 2022 was red. Repeat circle?
If history repeats, these upcoming two years will be important to you. Zero-knowledge protocols, decentralized applications run on decentralized servers (we can get rid of the AWS meme), and a new chapter to the Layer 2 wars. Think Optimism, Arbitrum, Polygon, Zksync, Layer Zero, and Sei Network provide affordable access to the Ethereum ecosystem.
Preparing for the next stage of the circle
I compiled a comprehensive list of subjects to pay attention to for the upcoming two years, leading up to the full-blown life-changing bull run of 2025 (Before or when we all crash again).
Now-Q3 2023
Farm airdrops. Big gains will be made within the upcoming zkSummer/autumn. It’s hard to predict if the Zksync and Layer Zero airdrops will be lucrative (like Uniswap, Arbitrum) or a disappointment (like Optimism). However, that’s not necessarily what farming airdrops is all about.
It’s about exploring an ecosystem, recognizing what is working as intended, and what can add value to the crypto ecosystem either to the specific ecosystem or to crypto as a whole. Investing in these early is where the real gains are made. Think Velodrome on Optimism or GMX on Arbitrum. Stargate is currently sitting on $400M total value locked. Zksync Era at a whopping $500M.
Jerome Powell is still in the process of battling inflation while unemployment is low. In the June FED post-meeting press conference two rate hikes were announced. Two trigger points could still swing the price of cryptocurrencies to the downside. That brings us to the next stage.
Q4–2023-end of year
Quantitative tightening might finally end, resulting in Bitcoin gaining more positive sentiment, continuing a steady rise, and taking the rest of the market with it. Factors influencing the market sentiment are the Bitcoin ETF and many macro factors like war, housing prices, the euro dollar, and the case of reduced reliance on the dollar by BRICS.
There will be choppy times, and not many crypto-based trigger moments are available to the public. The VR glasses will be on sale for retail, but don’t expect your 45 square meters of Decentraland land to 50x just yet.
Q1-Q2 2024
The Bitcoin halving is happening in April. Satoshi’s genius way of reducing the inflationary aspect of Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s inflation will be lower than Gold for the first time, with a block reward of 3.125 instead of the current 6.25.
This reduces the amount of fresh Bitcoin entering the market, looks great in news articles, inspires FOMO in the retail audience, and brings education to whoever is interested. In general, a time to turn bullish and start looking for either new or oversold altcoins.
Q3-Q4 2024
The Presidential campaign in the United States. Generally good times for risk-on assets as every candidate hyperbole the bull market to come, as long as you vote for them.
An interesting character enters the scene. John F. Kennedy’s nephew, Robert Kennedy Jr, is known for his alternative viewpoints on the current establishment and has shown a positive viewpoint on Bitcoin as a favorable currency multiple times.
Conclusion
Either during or after this period between 2023 to 2025, the Wild West of the cryptocurrency scene may change forever. Legislation enters and Bitcoin may find a way into the established global economy, lowering its potentially life-changing gains.
For this reason, as a cryptocurrency trader, this is the time to pay extra attention. Research new ecosystems, keep up with airdrops and closely monitor macro economy and sentiment regarding inflation, war, and division in monies. The 2024 versions of Polkadot, Solana, and Kusama are being built, and it is up to you to be there in due time. Prepare your capital, stay safe, and research up.
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