Jul 5, 2020
Can Verstappen repeat his come-from-behind heroics? — Austrian Grand Prix Race Preview
The season-opening race today is expected to be run in conditions much hotter than practice and qualifying, and that could throw a curveball into the pecking order and the teams’ simulations, given that long practice runs on race fuel were done during the overcast and much cooler Friday afternoon session.
[QUALIFYING RECAP: Mercs dominate, close fight behind, but Ferraris flounder]
Battle for the race win between the two Mercedes and Verstappen
Last year, Mercedes struggled massively in the hot race conditions, with both cars finishing more than 18 seconds behind race-winning Verstappen. Red Bull have shown great race pace, with Verstappen winning the previous two Austrian Grands Prix. The fact that Verstappen won after his poor start dropped him to 8th position last year, definitely losing time fighting his way back up the leaderboard, shows how much pace he had, and this could bode well for him this year, season-to-season comparisons notwithstanding.
Whether Verstappen can challenge the Mercedes fundamentally hinges on whether his car has the race pace to do so. He averaged 0.5s slower than Hamilton per lap on the medium tyres on Friday, but with fuel loads unknown and different temperatures, it remains to be seen whether that deficit materialises in the race.
If Verstappen’s race pace is on par with the Mercedes, the difficulty will then be outgunning one or both of them in the race. Overtaking the Mercedes cars on-track is difficult given that the Mercedes are the fastest in the speed traps, with a 6kph advantage over the Red Bull, so Verstappen will have to use an alternative strategy to have a chance at getting past.
That is exactly what Red Bull have done, starting him on the more durable medium tyres, in contrast to both Mercedes, opening him up to more strategic options. In my opinion, the success of this contra-strategy will boil down to these factors:
- Whether Verstappen can avoid losing places at the start — with the medium tyres offering less grip off the start line, Verstappen may be vulnerable to cars immediately behind him like Norris, and should he be stuck behind them, may face difficulty passing them especially given the tyre deficit. However, Verstappen generally starts well and aggressively, and barring any clutch problems like last year, I personally think that it’s more likely than not that he will retain his position. Starting on the clean side of the grid, he may even get a jump on Hamilton which would significantly increase his chances of winning as he would be directly in range of the lead Mercedes, which is related to my next point:
- The relative pace of the two Mercedes cars — should Mercedes remain 1–2 after the first lap, and the 2nd Merc driver being consistently slower than the 1st on track, the leading Merc may comfortably extend the lead in the opening gaps to become out of range to Verstappen, especially since Verstappen may find it difficult to pass the Mercedes on-track. This would make the win out of the question for Red Bull, though it makes it more likely that he can overhaul the 2nd Mercedes for 2nd place by the end of the race.
- The level of tyre degradation — given that the soft tyres wear out faster than the mediums, it will all depend on how rapidly they degrade, compared to how fast the Mercedes cars can extend their lead. If tyre wear is less than expected, or if Mercedes is extremely fast in the opening stint, then the Mercedes cars extend their lead past the 20+ seconds needed to pit and emerge ahead of yet-to-pit traffic, and not be afraid of losing time to Verstappen in traffic. But if they’re forced to pit earlier than expected, it would compromise their 2nd stint and make it challenging to make the end of the race without pitting again.
With the expected high tyre degradation during the race, I would expect the tyre strategy to be Medium-Hard for medium-starters like Verstappen, and for the soft-tyred starters, optimistically a Soft-Hard one-stop, or if that does not work, a Soft-Medium-Medium more aggressive two-stop. If Mercedes tries to stretch out a Soft-Hard one-step, they may be vulnerable on older tyres to Vestappen toward the end of the race, as we saw last year when Verstappen devastatingly cut through the top 5 and snatch the win at the end of the race.
Aside from that, it will be interesting to see the battle between the two Mercedes. Hamilton has generally had better race pace than Bottas last year, but not historically on the Austrian track. Should conditions necessitate a two-stop strategy, I wonder if Mercedes will allow Hamilton onto an alternate strategy to attack his team-mate, or will Mercedes prefer to keep both cars on the same optimal strategy and bank a crucial first 1–2.
With the reduced number of races this year, every race is now extremely important and the cost of mistakes and crashes is even more severe. If Hamilton sees himself locked in a two-horse race for the title with Bottas, quite likely given the supremacy of the Mercedes car, he may want to avoid taking too many risks at the start which may leave him vulnerable to losing a place to Verstappen who may make a lunge down into Turn 3 (his favourite overtaking spot last year). Or alternatively if Hamilton gets a good start, we can see the two Silver (now black!) Arrows wheel-to-wheel going into Turn 3 — something that I’m sorely waiting for since the last time the two Mercedes cars fought on track for the lead, back in the 2019 British Grand Prix (a battle that was cut short by the VSC gifting Hamilton an easy win).
But in terms of the most likely result, I’m going with the Mercedes making it a one-two, Bottas edging it due to his historical advantage over Hamilton at this track, with Verstappen finishing 3rd.
Intense battle anticipated behind the leading trio
Away from the leading trio, I am particuarly interested in the Racing Point-McLaren-Albon battle, and perhaps even with Ricciardo and the Ferrari’s sneaking in if their race pace is better than their dreadful qualifying showing. McLaren arguably out-performed expectations in qualifying, having hung around the lower reaches of the top 10 throughout practice. However, the race pace simulations on Friday show that they are 0.5s slower than Racing Point and Red Bull, and it should lead to an intriguing battle. I’ve arguably not focused on the midfield battle in the past, only fixating on the big 3 teams, but the multi-horse race is shaping up to be very exciting, as it is not as straightforward as a one-to-one strategic battle we commonly see at the front. Racing Point, especially Perez, has traditionally been very kind to the tyres, so I foresee him having an advantage over the McLarens. However, tactics involving teammates can play a role in mixing up the outcome, with Sainz and Stroll close behind in 8th and 9th respectively. Of those two I see Sainz as the driver more likely to shine in the race.
The lead Ferrari of Leclerc may also hope to mount an attack, and Vettel will also be a driver to watch out for, being the first to have the free choice of start tyres, albeit starting down in 11th. Being able to start on the medium tyre is a huge strategic advantage compared to similarly-paced cars in front, and I can see Vettel jumping some of them if the Ferrari’s race pace is decent. Ricciardo was also strong in practice and had the pace for ~7th, but was denied by the yellow flags brought out for Bottas’ mistake. He’s traditionally been superb in the race, so we can expect to see him in the mix as well.
Overall, I see the battle behind the top 3 panning out in two groups: the first involving Perez, Albon and Norris, and the second involving Leclerc, Sainz, Stroll, Ricciardo and Vettel. This should shape things up for a very close and exciting fight. If I were to predict the result, I would see Albon edging it due to recent history favouring Red Bull, followed by Perez and then Norris, with Leclerc, Sainz, Vettel, Ricciardo rounding up the top 10.
How do you think this race will pan out? Which Mercedes will claim the first win of the season, or will Verstappen rain on their parade? Leave a comment below, and I’ll love to hear what you think!
Top 10 predictions:
- Bottas
- Hamilton
- Verstappen
- Albon
- Perez
- Norris
- Leclerc
- Sainz
- Vettel
- Ricciardo
