F1 Fantasy 2020 Guide Part 2: Before FP3…
Hi there! It’s been a while since we posted our original guide and there’s been a lot of discussion around the game and season.
Thing’s I’ll cover in this post:
- Updates to our website
- Undervalued and Overvalued drivers
- Norris vs Gasly vs Raikkonen vs Ocon
- Discussions around Price movements
- How things look going into Qualifying
We just want to say thank you for all the great feedback for the website, we’re always trying to make improvements and show additional hidden value to help you pick your best teams.
Join our discord here — https://discord.gg/mdYgFUn
Join our league here — https://fantasy.formula1.com/league/13377
Updates To Our Website
- Updated the overall website to the current calendar season as well as the upcoming race.
- Changed the standings (drivers and constructors) to the current season format.
- Added “PREVIOUS CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON SUMMARY” at the bottom of each driver and constructor.
- Added a live Fantasy Streaks section, showing highlighting which drivers are due to complete a streak at the upcoming race.
- Updated Instagram profile (www.instagram.com/f1fantasytracker/)
Undervalued and Overvalued Drivers
If the Racing Point car performs the SAME as last years car (no improvement), they are undervalued, Perez had a 13.8 average per race and finished top of the midfield (excluding Gasly). If the Racing Point car performs BETTER than last years car, then they are really really undervalued and will definitely increase once people load them into their teams afterwards. Perez said it’s the best car hes had in preseason and Sainz says he fears the Racing Point and Alpha Tauri cars the most. Gasly performed amazing in his Toro Rosso last year and thats even excluding his 2nd place podium. He was regularly better than Kvyat and looked way more comfortable than he did in his Red Bull.
On the flip side, last year Norris’ average points per race were one of the lowest and he didn’t even reach a high price, yet for 2020 they place him far above. The same for Carlos Sainz, although he did great, 15.5 million is a lot for one of the best of the rest. The points you’d be sacrificing in other drivers to afford Albon won’t be made up by Albon’s performances.
Norris vs Gasly vs Raikkonen vs Ocon
There has been a lot of discussions around choosing between these 4 drivers, as whoever gets it right will shoot above the rest. Currently they are all priced the roughly the same;
Ocon — 12.million
Norris — 11.5 million
Gasly — 10.4 million
Raikkonen — 10.3 million
So when you run a line up of HAM, RUS, PER, STR and MERCEDES, you have 1 space left for one of these drivers.
Ocon — A year out of the car so it’s hard to give a review on recent performance but he was great in the former Force India. The Renault car was also lackluster last year but with the arrival of 3 new upgrades to Austria, there is hope that it can be competitive in the midfield. I feel like at this stage Ocon in the Renault is quite a wildcard pick, not a lot to back it up.
Norris — A rough year on average for him, fast in qualifying but for whatever reason dropped a lot of points during the race which meant -2 per place lost. We know hes fast and coming into 2020 he says confidence issues hit him hard last season. Hes apparently coming in stronger this year and ready to show what he can do. I’m still keeping my eye on him through FP3 and at least this first race, if he can back it up, hes a great one to go.
Gasly — As mentioned above, in one of the cars Sainz fears along with Racing Point. Hes comfortable in this car philosophy and looks like a much stronger driver in it. The question is down to whether the car has come up with the rest of the field with improvements or not. Wait until the end of FP3 to decide whether hes strong or not. One key factor about Gasly over the 2 previously mentioned is that he will more often than not beat Kvyat, scoring an extra 5 points at each race.
Raikkonen — Started the 1st half of the season very strong, got into Q3 and finished P3 at Austria 2019. I have no doubt he still has his skill and ability, but again like Gasly, it’s quite unknown whether Alfa Romeo has come with big updates or not. He will however beat Giovinazzi more often than not so there’s a lot of bonus points there. Comparing him to last year, hes very fairly priced.
Discussions around Price movements
What we’ll be looking to introduce to the website is allowing users to know HOW much a drivers price will increase or decrease by, with only knowing their sentiment value as F1 doesn’t discuss the relationship between the sentiment values and by how much they specifically affect prices.
One key thing to remember is that prices will be moving based on POPULARITY, aka if more people suddenly pick up a driver, more demand, the price goes up and the same works vice versa, the more people swapping out a driver, the prices goes down. So this means it doesn’t matter how good a driver is to a certain extent if no one notices or picks him up. This allows you to find those undervalued and hidden drivers and pick them up for a better price than others.
As of this point, around 30% of people have Gasly, 40% has Norris, 51% has Perez, and 38% has Ricciardo, does that mean once Austria Race 1 finishes their price will go up? Only time will tell. It will be weird to see Ricciardo DNF yet his price goes up because 38% of players picked him up. Important to remember how this works compared to last year which was based around performance. I think picking up drivers like Stroll and Gasly now will pay off later if they do perform as good as I hope they will.
How Things Look Going Into Qualifying
Ill be editing this after FP3. I’m expecting qualifying times that’s on average faster by 1.52% than last year. Will report back results*
Conclusion, you can justify any one of those 4 drivers previously mentioned. Be sure to pick up drivers now that are severely undervalued. Don’t waste money on anyone in the Top 6 drivers or Top 3 constructors, stick with HAM and MERCEDES. Wait for the end of FP3 for better predictions. Soon we’ll be able to predict price changes based on sentiment values. Price movements aren’t tied to performance, only peoples perception of performance or popularity.
Here are my 3 teams going into this year.
Any feedback or improvements please do let us know, we’re easily found on our instagram or discord at the top of the page.
Good luck!
