A Macro Lens on Weather
By Tom Hoffmann, FAA Safety Briefing Magazine
You’ve likely seen or heard of the memes for the weather forecasting rock. The whimsical signs you might see outdoors, sometimes even near an airport, feature a stone hung by a rope along with a sign that indicates how this “highly technical and accurate” weather forecasting tool operates. If the rock is wet, it’s raining; if it’s swinging, it’s windy; if it’s white, it’s snowing, and, well … you get the idea. It’s an amusing way of poking fun at weather forecasts where the timing or conditions predicted don’t quite match reality.
Weather forecasting has come a long way in a relatively short span of time. Enhanced satellite and radar technology, more robust forecast models, and even artificial intelligence have played a role in achieving that higher degree of accuracy. However, it seems only Mother Nature has direct knowledge of how or when weather events will actually unfold.
As pilots, we are especially keen on this reality, with each of us experiencing first-hand the fickle nature of forecasting. We study the charts, review the forecasts, and fine-tune our cockpit weather displays, yet there always seems to be some cumulus-shaped curveball tossed our way. There’s probably no better example of this on full display than check ride day, the day many learner pilots come to know the weather gods by their first name. While you may aspire for that perfect prognostication, it rarely occurs. On the plus side, it offers you some real-world issues to discuss with your examiner about how you might proceed differently, or if necessary, postpone or cancel the flight. While the changed flight plan might not be the ideal outcome, it’s a chance to sharpen those go/no-go skills that will serve you well on future flights.
One thing that has always helped me when it comes to weather is understanding the bigger picture of what’s happening in the atmosphere. Back in the 1990s during my collegiate flying days, I fondly recall having to print and post weather charts for our university flight school’s briefing area as a lab component of my advanced meteorology course. The charts depicted frontal systems, wind directions, and temperature/dew point spreads, among other items. I realize these black-and-white line drawings produced on a dot-matrix printer may seem crude compared to the sparkling high-res images rendered instantly on a tablet. However, seeing a mural of images side by side forces you to step back and string together a weather story much bigger and more comprehensive than what is just outside the window. Sometimes our rush to see what’s happening right here and now narrows our view and eclipses the bigger picture of events.
In a similar way, I’m guilty at times of blindly following the polite voice of my Google Maps navigator only to find myself going down a highly undesired path. Were I to simply widen my view of the map, I’d easily see a more viable detour, or, more importantly, verify if I’m even headed in the right direction. My experience and local knowledge of roads, traffic lights, and bottleneck areas often trump the advice of my navigator. Taking a few extra minutes to get the big picture of where I’m headed and what other factors might affect my ETA can be extremely helpful.
A surface analysis chart is one tool that can provide you with a “big picture” visual of weather details.
The same is true when it comes to weather. Having a large-scale weather perspective can provide that extra bit of insight that leads to a more informed go/no-go decision or backup plan. A surface analysis chart is one tool that can provide you with an overview of areas of high and low pressure, along with frontal boundaries, temperatures, dew points, wind directions and speeds, local weather, and visual obstructions. Using this chart as part of your preflight can help you discover any potential trouble spots you’ll want to focus on or discuss further with a weather briefer if needed. Getting the “big picture” allows you to funnel all the available information into a sound go, no go decision for your route of flight as well as see potential alternates if conditions change.
