Maybe Not Today …
Avoiding the Perils (and Regrets) of VFR into IMC
By Sabrina Woods, National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)
(Editor’s Note: This article originally appeared in the Jul/Aug 2018 issue of FAA Safety Briefing and was updated for this issue.)
In 2009, a non-instrument-rated pilot originally planned for a much-anticipated cross-country trip, but instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) conditions at the airport prevented the pilot from leaving on the intended day. After two days of waiting, IMC still prevailed; however, several witnesses observed the pilot and the pilot’s son at the fuel dock. They all assumed that the pilot would taxi back to the hangar since the ceilings were between 200–400 feet above ground level (AGL). Instead, the airplane departed and disappeared into the overcast clouds. Multiple witnesses heard the airplane continuously change speed and direction, followed by the sound of the airplane impacting the ground. Airplane components were found in two locations — at the main wreckage site and along a debris path that consisted of the outboard portions of the left wing and left stabilator. Both the pilot and son suffered fatal injuries in the crash.
Flying VFR into IMC is still one of the most lethal causal factors for GA mishaps.
In 2019, a non-instrument-rated commercial pilot encountered fog shortly after departing for a visual flight rules (VFR) aerial application flight in an aircraft not equipped for instrument flight rules (IFR). The pilot attempted to fly above the fog layer and divert to a local airport. However, aircraft tracking data shows the airplane entered two spiraling turns, the second of which involved a rapid descent in the direction of the fatal accident site. Investigators determined this to be consistent with the effects of spatial disorientation in IMC conditions. They also were not able to determine if the pilot received an official weather briefing before the flight.
In 2021, a non-instrument-rated pilot departed in a helicopter shortly after sunset in visual meteorological conditions (VMC). About an hour into the fight, the pilot encountered snow showers and IMC conditions that were forecast to move through the route of flight. Radar data showed that after entering the area of weather, the pilot began a right descending turn and the helicopter crashed in a rural, wooded area. Investigators believed that operating in a helicopter not approved for IFR flight and with no instrument rating, in addition to the overcast skies, snow showers, and a lack of terrestrial illumination in a remote area, were conducive to spatial disorientation and subsequent loss of control in this unfortunate fatality. There was also no evidence the pilot reviewed the weather or received a briefing before the flight.
Shocked!
Each year, the Richard G. McSpadden Report (formerly the Joseph T. Nall Report) provides a detailed analysis of general aviation (GA) accident data and safety trends. A look at the most recent finalized data from the report in 2021 indicates there were 938 non-commercial, fixed-wing accidents, with an overall lethality rate of 17.7%. More than 80% of the accidents that occurred in IMC were fatal, compared to 15% of those that occurred within VMC. As the preceding accident summaries demonstrate, flying VFR into IMC is still one of the most lethal causal factors for GA mishaps. For this reason, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has determined it to be a significant safety hazard for the GA community.
What stands out is that, unlike most of the other mishap causal factors, this particular rate of occurrence has remained stubbornly fixed — drifting between a 79 to 92% fatal accident rate for VFR into IMC over the last several decades. Decades! This is despite several significant upgrades in weather forecasting technology and a continued safety awareness effort focused on this subject. My research left me shocked and more than just a little concerned about why this particular phenomenon keeps occurring.
So Why Does It Still Happen?
The FAA, NTSB, and various aviation safety advocates from industry and academia alike have tried to determine what happens when a pilot finds themselves in the incredibly hazardous situation of being VFR and then flying into IMC conditions. Some researchers have theorized that cockpit technologies are insufficient at depicting meteorological conditions in real-time. Others believe that pilots get distracted or overestimate their aeronautical abilities. Others even go so far as to accuse aviators of being willful in disregarding the dangers and deem flying VFR into IMC as negligence.
While I think some of these ideas have merit (others, not so much), I, too, have a couple of different theories to offer on how VFR into IMC can happen. I humbly present to you what I call the “just around the river bend” bad idea; the “where’d everybody go?” gaffe; and the “there’s no place like home” hot spot. Let me explain further ….
Others even go so far as to accuse aviators of being willful in disregarding the dangers and deem flying VFR into IMC as negligence.
It’s Just Around the River Bend … ?
In this situation, a pilot is flying along when the visibility starts to deteriorate. Instead of diverting from the undesirable condition or even just landing the aircraft, the pilot continues, thinking that clearer conditions might be just “around the river bend.” Or worse, they rely on the latest weather app to “shoot the gap” and try to fly through the inclement weather.
As you might notice in a previous article I wrote, “Weather … Or Not? Weather Technology in the Cockpit,” I discussed the FAA’s Weather Technology in the Cockpit (WTIC) program to educate pilots on the inherent inaccuracies, latencies, and limitations of weather displays in the cockpit. Information that you see on your favorite weather app might not be real-time, with lagging delays of up to 20 minutes! This means that the hole a pilot might try to slip through is no longer there upon arrival.
Another reason some pilots are reluctant to turn around is what human factors scientists call “sunk cost bias.” In general, we are often reluctant to turn away from something when we feel we have already put a certain amount of time, effort, and money into it. We would rather hang on just a little longer because we value the very real “wasted” effort more than the intangible hazard. Regardless, waiting for a hole that might never manifest, prioritizing the extra money you burned, or trying to get to your destination is just a bad idea when dealing with foul weather or poor visibility.
Where’d Everybody Go?!
Another reason pilots might unwittingly find themselves in a bad “VFR into IMC situation” is because the conditions change without the pilot observing it happening. Picture this: You are flying along in VFR conditions when you take a moment to fiddle with your radio that keeps emitting a high-pitched squeal when you key the mic. Once satisfied that the squelchy situation is resolved, you look up to find yourself on the cusp between marginal VFR conditions and IMC. The soup is getting worse with every passing minute, and the “where’d everybody go?!” panic starts to set in.
This scenario is more common than you might think and is often the result of distraction — when something not pertinent to the task at hand captures and holds your attention; or fixation — when you are overly focused on one specific task to the detriment of all others. Poor situational awareness, lack of experience in interpreting changing weather conditions, and overestimating one’s own abilities are also common culprits in missing the shift from VMC to “not-VMC.” These mistakes can break down the efficacy of your aeronautical decision-making making, which can lead to additional errors and an increase in risk. Mitigate them by creating systematic procedures that work for you and your aircraft type, and by creating and closely following a scan pattern.
There’s No Place Like Home
Very similar to the “just around the river bend” bad idea is the overwhelming desire to just get home. Colloquially this is called “get-home-itis” or “get-there-itis;” however, most theorists refer to it as plan continuation bias. It is like the former because the aversion to sunk costs is the same. But get-home-itis often goes much deeper because the pilot is particularly keen to accomplish their goal even though things have changed and there are indications that doing so is very risky (see the Air Safety Institute video in Learn More below). Sometimes complacency — I’ve done it before, so why shouldn’t it work this time? — over-reliance on technology, and good ol’ fashioned pride can get in the way of a person’s making the safer, albeit seemingly inconvenient choice.
Victims of plan continuation bias can be internally motivated (e.g., wanting to get home to a waiting family member), externally motivated (e.g., wanting to get the rental back to avoid additional charges), or a combination of both. When it comes to flying VFR into IMC, this bias can compel a pilot to make unsafe choices in their aeronautical decision-making. An excellent and rather sad example is in the very first paragraph of this article. Even though we all know there is no place like home, sometimes it is better if the getting-there desire waits in deference to a safer course of action.
An Ounce of Prevention …
Benjamin Franklin once penned that “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.” Granted, Mr. Franklin was talking about fire safety; however, the axiom rings true today and is easily applicable to a host of different situations. Thorough pre-flight planning and being conscious of your skill set and experience level aids in thwarting VFR into IMC tragedies. The best time to take preventative measures is by building a solid “Plan A” and a “Plan B” before you go fly. If you are anything like me, you will even build a “Plan B++.” In your plans, you should consider what alternate courses of action will be available if the weather or visibility starts to turn sour, when you should consider adopting those courses of action, and a realistic assessment of your own personal minimums so that you know exactly what you need to do to avoid ever getting close to a bad situation.
Trust me on this. Being in the thick of things is no time to try and reconnoiter and develop a Plan B. Spatial disorientation, in particular, often goes hand-in-hand in VFR into IMC accidents. When it comes to deteriorating weather conditions, if you are not instrument-qualified, the best course of action is to remain in VFR conditions and land the plane as soon as possible.
To put a different twist on an oft-quoted line from the famous final airplane scene in Casablanca: If that plane leaves [VMC], you’ll regret it — soon and for the rest of your life. Because if you do the right thing, then maybe not today, and maybe not tomorrow, you will eventually get where you’re going, but without the regrets that you — or the loved ones you leave behind — would have if you fall prey to a VFR-into-IMC accident.
Learn More
Sabrina Woods is a human performance investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and a former editor of the FAA Safety Briefing. She spent 12 years as an aircraft maintenance officer and an aviation mishap investigator in the Air Force. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily represent the views of the NTSB or the United States.
